Eglin AFB Tropical Wx Outlook

[N2DaTropics]

0930L 31 July Tropical Update:



A tropical wave approaching the Windward Islands is being monitored for development by the National Hurricane Center. The Hurricane Hunters of the USAF Reserve have deployed an aircraft from Keesler AFB to their forward operating base in St Croix to be ready to fly later today if it continues to look like this wave might be forming into a depression. Only a couple of computer models suggest this system will eventually form into a significant tropical cyclone, but here at Eglin, we need to watch it because its future track follows the “problem child” path we have seen the past couple of years with storms like Ivan and Dennis, where it skims along the southern coast of Cuba before turning northwest into the southern Gulf of Mexico. If it follows that path, it would reach the Gulf by about Saturday.



Another wave, northwest of Puerto Rico, is battling some winds shear and is not expected to develop, however, some of the energy from this system may make its way across Florida by later this week and this needs to be watched as well.



Finally, a large and well-developed tropical wave has entered the Atlantic, just coming off the west coast of Africa. Nearly all computer models forecast this wave to develop into a hurricane over the next seven days as it moves westward across the Atlantic toward the Caribbean.



The active period we were expecting in early August may be showing signs of becoming a reality as conditions across the tropics are becoming much more favorable for hurricane formation.


Obviously the plot begins to thicken as we head into August and Sept.

[SouthFloridawx]

Thanks for posting that... do you have a link?

[x-y-no]

http://www.eglin.af.mil/weather/current/tropicalupdate.htm