Invest 90L E of Carolina's,Comments,Sat Pics Etc

cheezyWXguy · #41 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 11:29 am

ya...i dont think its gonna move SE into the ITCZ, but I think te a98e maybe on a good start

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #42 Postby **senorpepr** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 11:30 am

cheezyWXguy wrote:ya...i dont think its gonna move SE into the ITCZ, but I think te a98e maybe on a good start

Of course it's not going to go into the ITCZ, but who uses extrapolation five days out?

Epsilon_Fan · #43 Postby **Epsilon_Fan** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 11:51 am

what's this doing? It seems to be drifting closer to that mass of convection???

Stormavoider · #44 Postby **Stormavoider** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 12:23 pm

The dry air is DOOMED

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-wv.html

Swimdude · #45 Postby **Swimdude** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 12:24 pm

WindRunner wrote:Don't you love model guidance like that . . . looks like each model just spun the compass and said "Looks good!"

Hahaha!!

wxmann_91 · #46 Postby **wxmann_91** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 12:30 pm

Stormavoider wrote:The dry air is DOOMED

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-wv.html

Ouch. Watch those fast moving clouds over New England. Once that hits 90L, it will be like paper into a shredder.

cheezyWXguy · #47 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 12:45 pm

is the dry air in the paper shreadder or is it 90L?

wxmann_91 · #48 Postby **wxmann_91** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 1:02 pm

is the dry air in the paper shreadder or is it 90L?

90L. Dry air will moderate somewhat but still there.

#49 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 2:06 pm

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902006) ON 20060731 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060731 1800 060801 0600 060801 1800 060802 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 34.2N 72.3W 32.5N 73.1W 31.5N 74.7W 30.9N 76.9W
BAMM 34.2N 72.3W 33.2N 71.3W 32.5N 70.8W 31.8N 71.0W
A98E 34.2N 72.3W 33.7N 71.0W 32.9N 70.3W 32.3N 69.6W
LBAR 34.2N 72.3W 33.2N 70.8W 32.9N 69.7W 32.5N 69.2W
SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 27KTS 28KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 27KTS 28KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060802 1800 060803 1800 060804 1800 060805 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 30.8N 79.1W 31.3N 82.9W 32.1N 85.6W 32.2N 88.6W
BAMM 31.9N 71.6W 32.5N 72.0W 33.5N 71.9W 34.6N 69.8W
A98E 32.2N 69.2W 31.6N 67.8W 31.7N 67.1W 31.5N 69.2W
LBAR 32.2N 68.7W 31.8N 67.4W 33.4N 65.3W 36.3N 60.3W
SHIP 26KTS 24KTS 25KTS 24KTS
DSHP 26KTS 24KTS 25KTS 24KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 34.2N LONCUR = 72.3W DIRCUR = 115DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 34.7N LONM12 = 74.4W DIRM12 = 124DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 36.0N LONM24 = 75.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

18:00z BAM Models.Ship does not develop this at this time.

Scott_inVA · #50 Postby **Scott_inVA** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 4:35 pm

Forget TC modeling and look just at near term synoptic wx. What would push this Low west into CONUS?

I fully expect this tracks east with some southern component and is reflected in this morning's SREF Ensemble:
http://www.midatlanticwx.com/hw3/hw3.ph ... r=09&dpp=0

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA

#51 Postby **jasons2k** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 5:06 pm

Interesting - from NWS Houston/Galveston:

DEEPER MOISTURE IS
LIKELY TO BEGIN TO MOVE INTO SE TX FROM THE GULF ON SATURDAY...SO
WILL BEGIN TO RAISE POPS ON THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE THIS TREND
INTO MONDAY AS TROPICAL MOISTURE AND AN ASSOCIATED DISTURBANCE
CURRENTLY NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS MOVES WEST AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE AND AFFECTS THE AREA.

edited to show source...

Extremeweatherguy · #52 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 5:49 pm

jschlitz wrote:Interesting - from NWS Houston/Galveston:

DEEPER MOISTURE IS
LIKELY TO BEGIN TO MOVE INTO SE TX FROM THE GULF ON SATURDAY...SO
WILL BEGIN TO RAISE POPS ON THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE THIS TREND
INTO MONDAY AS TROPICAL MOISTURE AND AN ASSOCIATED DISTURBANCE
CURRENTLY NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS MOVES WEST AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE AND AFFECTS THE AREA.

edited to show source...

hopefully this same setup is not in place when 99L gets into that same area! :eek:

#53 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 7:34 pm

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

Buy-bye to 90L. :blowup:

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #54 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 7:36 pm

What a waste for a short lived invest :grrr:

wxmann_91 · #55 Postby **wxmann_91** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 7:43 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:What a waste for a short lived invest

I agree...

Like paper into a shredder... watch, almost like a cold front undercutting a supercell

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

Invest 90L E of Carolina's,Comments,Sat Pics Etc

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