Invest 99L E of Lesser Antilles,Comments,Sat Pics,Etc #3
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- Extremeweatherguy
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- Extremeweatherguy
- Category 5
- Posts: 11095
- Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
- Location: Florida
Also, these areas need to be highlighted:
NONAME wrote:THE TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 55W/56W HAS BEEN REPOSITIONED
TO 60/61W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE SURFACE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN REMOVED AND ANALYZED AS A
TROF FROM 13N58W TO 18N56W. THIS CHANGE WAS MADE DUE TO LOW/MID
CLOUD MOTIONS AND WIND OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE SOUTHERN LESSER
ANTILLES SUGGESTING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE HAS BECOME
DETACHED...AND IS MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE SE CARIBBEAN
SEA...WITH THE NORTHERN TROF PORTION MOVING MORE WNW. THIS MAY
BE REANALYZED AS A SINGLE/CURVED WAVE IN THE 18Z ANALYSIS BUT
CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS THERE ARE TWO SEPARATE FEATURES. THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE SEEMS TO BE ENHANCING CONVECTION
OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA SOUTH OF THE ITCZ...WHERE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIE FROM 2N TO 8N BETWEEN 59W AND 64W.
SHIP...BUOY...AND CLOUD MOTIONS ABOUT 250NM EAST OF DOMINICA
FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 55W AND 59W STILL SHOW CLEAR CYCLONIC
TURNING. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE
TROF AXIS FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 55W AND 58W. ALTHOUGH
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL
BE AVAILABLE TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...IF
NECESSARY.
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Extremeweatherguy wrote:I don't know if I can really say that this system looks any weaker than TD2 in 1992:
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... 992%29.JPG
How did you look up that one so fast?
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- Extremeweatherguy
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I typed in "pictures of TDs" and that one popped up. lol. Figured it was a good example.Thunder44 wrote:Extremeweatherguy wrote:I don't know if I can really say that this system looks any weaker than TD2 in 1992:
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... 992%29.JPG
How did you look up that one so fast?
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Extremeweatherguy wrote:I typed in "pictures of TDs" and that one popped up. lol. Figured it was a good example.Thunder44 wrote:Extremeweatherguy wrote:I don't know if I can really say that this system looks any weaker than TD2 in 1992:
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... 992%29.JPG
How did you look up that one so fast?
Oh, I see you weren't looking for any particular TD. Just for any sad-looking one.

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- Military Met
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Extremeweatherguy wrote:I'm sorry, but this thing looks just as good as any TD or even weak TS that I have ever seen. It looks much better organized today, and I am amazed the NHC canceled the recon mission even after calling it "well organized".
I can't wait for the recon to go out tomorrow and finally call this what it is....TD 3.
BTW: I can already anticipate the response I will get from the pro mets.![]()
That statement doesn't even warrent a response other than if this looks better than any TD you've ever seen...you have not seen many TD's and I suggest you lurk and learn.

BTW....show me the eastward moving cloud element (necessary to for this even to have a closed LLC) and then we can talk). Where's waldo?
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- senorpepr
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Extremeweatherguy wrote:Also, these areas need to be highlighted:NONAME wrote:THE TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 55W/56W HAS BEEN REPOSITIONED
TO 60/61W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE SURFACE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN REMOVED AND ANALYZED AS A
TROF FROM 13N58W TO 18N56W. THIS CHANGE WAS MADE DUE TO LOW/MID
CLOUD MOTIONS AND WIND OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE SOUTHERN LESSER
ANTILLES SUGGESTING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE HAS BECOME
DETACHED...AND IS MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE SE CARIBBEAN
SEA...WITH THE NORTHERN TROF PORTION MOVING MORE WNW. THIS MAY
BE REANALYZED AS A SINGLE/CURVED WAVE IN THE 18Z ANALYSIS BUT
CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS THERE ARE TWO SEPARATE FEATURES. THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE SEEMS TO BE ENHANCING CONVECTION
OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA SOUTH OF THE ITCZ...WHERE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIE FROM 2N TO 8N BETWEEN 59W AND 64W.
SHIP...BUOY...AND CLOUD MOTIONS ABOUT 250NM EAST OF DOMINICA
FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 55W AND 59W STILL SHOW CLEAR CYCLONIC
TURNING. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE
TROF AXIS FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 55W AND 58W. ALTHOUGH
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL
BE AVAILABLE TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...IF
NECESSARY.
First, a surface low doesn't mean an LLC that is needed for a tropical cyclone.
Second, clear, cyclonic turning doesn't mean an LLC. An open wave is clear, cyclonic turning.
Therefore, which your highlighting, you've proven nothing. Sorry.
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- cheezyWXguy
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Extremeweatherguy wrote:Also, these areas need to be highlighted:NONAME wrote:THE TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 55W/56W HAS BEEN REPOSITIONED
TO 60/61W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE SURFACE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN REMOVED AND ANALYZED AS A
TROF FROM 13N58W TO 18N56W. THIS CHANGE WAS MADE DUE TO LOW/MID
CLOUD MOTIONS AND WIND OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE SOUTHERN LESSER
ANTILLES SUGGESTING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE HAS BECOME
DETACHED...AND IS MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE SE CARIBBEAN
SEA...WITH THE NORTHERN TROF PORTION MOVING MORE WNW. THIS MAY
BE REANALYZED AS A SINGLE/CURVED WAVE IN THE 18Z ANALYSIS BUT
CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS THERE ARE TWO SEPARATE FEATURES. THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE SEEMS TO BE ENHANCING CONVECTION
OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA SOUTH OF THE ITCZ...WHERE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIE FROM 2N TO 8N BETWEEN 59W AND 64W.
SHIP...BUOY...AND CLOUD MOTIONS ABOUT 250NM EAST OF DOMINICA
FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 55W AND 59W STILL SHOW CLEAR CYCLONIC
TURNING. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE
TROF AXIS FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 55W AND 58W. ALTHOUGH
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL
BE AVAILABLE TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...IF
NECESSARY.
EWG, this thing I can say, is not a TD. Also, read the blue lettering.
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- AJC3
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Extremeweatherguy wrote:I'm sorry, but this thing looks just as good as any TD or even weak TS that I have ever seen. It looks much better organized today, and I am amazed the NHC canceled the recon mission even after calling it "well organized".
I can't wait for the recon to go out tomorrow and finally call this what it is....TD 3.
BTW: I can already anticipate the response I will get from the pro mets.![]()
<Soapbox>
This convinces me to bring up a point that's been made before, but i'll do it in a slightly different manner...
Let's take two vortices. Make them both symmetrical and give them about 20 (*1/sec) units of vort energy <---- fancy schmancy term for enough "cyclonic spin" to produce, say, 20 knots of wind.
Ok let's drop the first one in the Atlantic. It's stationary, and it has enough central convection to be classified as a 20kt depression.
Now let's take the second one, and embed it in brisk easterlies such that it's racing along westward at 20-25 knots. Mind you, in real life the system is not going to retain a symmetric vorticity field, but for argument's sake let's pretend it does. But now the forward speed of the system is distorting that nice and symmetric ground relative flow that we used to have. In fact, it's completely counteracting the storm relative spin on the south side that used to euqate to 20 knots of westerly winds, such that the system is now an open wave.
However, now you have a system that's moving so fast that it has sustained winds near TS force on the north side, that gust to 60 knots and higher as it blasts through the Leeward Islands.
So, now you have vort #1, a weak 20 knot depression, and vort #2 (my example is similar to pre-Claudette).
Which one is the true TC? Which one is producing the worst weather.
My point: Just because something is an open wave doesn't mean it can't produce TS conditions.
Conversely, just because something has a nice looking vortex, and is producing significant winds in the tropics, doesn't necessarily mean it's a TC.
</Soapbox>
Last edited by AJC3 on Mon Jul 31, 2006 1:14 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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wxman57 wrote:Good guess! The image at the bottom is one I saved from Katrina on August 17th at 1615Z, five days before it became TD 12 and then Katrina.
And I was trying to make a point. The point is we need to look at the big picture and not focus on small fluctuations in organization from hour to hour. Prior to Katrina, we had 2 Cat 4 hurricanes in the Gulf. Conditions across the Caribbean/Gulf were VERY favorable for intensification (i.e., very low wind shear). So even though Katring-to-be didn't look like much on August 17th, the potential was there for significant development.
Now take a look at the conditions in advance of 99L. There are several strong upper-level lows/trofs, with only small pockets of favorable conditions. The Gulf has been dominated by relatively high wind shear, as is most of the Caribbean. So the potential for significant development in the long run appears to be much lower for 99L
But it just goes to show you that you should never totally write off a system because it looks as disorganized as 99L.
If you wanted to de-emphasize 99L that was SO not the right image to post!

Seriously I am *not* basing my evaluation on hour-to-hour changes. This has maintained a MLC and probably a storm-relative LLC for 2 day. In the middle of the SAL and while sucking in outflow boundaries it has maintained deep convection for over a day in its updraft. That, to me, says it's a functional tropical cyclone, making its own warm wet air by dragging it over stormy seas, and using the energy to make even more fuel. It looks and acts exactly like any sheared TS. As I've said I think it's well *organized*, but strongly sheared. Organization is not officially defined, but how much better organized can a TD get than to have all nearby convection in its updraft?
I agree long-term future conditions look difficult. But for the next day the shear map (I know, grain of salt and all that) show less shear for its track. And you could see the convection move closer to the center a few hours ago (seems stable now) The current burst is not IMO just another outburst that may help a TC develop. It's the response of an existing (weak) tropical cyclone to improving shear.
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- Military Met
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Extremeweatherguy wrote:I don't know if I can really say that this system looks any weaker than TD2 in 1992:
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... 992%29.JPG
Kinda hard to compare a grainy IR shot with a CLEAR vis image that CLEARLY shows NO eastward moving cloud elements.
Show me the eastward moving cloud element or a west wind...Or give it up.
EWG...give me the definition of a tropical depression...
and then back that definition with HARD CORE DATA.
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- Military Met
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senorpepr wrote: First, a surface low doesn't mean an LLC that is needed for a tropical cyclone.
Second, clear, cyclonic turning doesn't mean an LLC. An open wave is clear, cyclonic turning.
Therefore, which your highlighting, you've proven nothing. Sorry.
Exactly.
EWG...remember these words. A sfc LOW doesn't equate to a CLOSED LLC with a west wind, which is what a TD needs.
All tropical waves (and even trofs in the mid-lats...fronts!) have cyclonic turning. They don't have to be lows to have it...but lows have to have it.
Get it?
I pointed this out over the weekend...but some aren't latching on to the concept. There can be a low pressure area...moving west at 20 knots...without a west wind and closed circulation.
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- Grease Monkey
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- Extremeweatherguy
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Air Force Met wrote:Extremeweatherguy wrote:I don't know if I can really say that this system looks any weaker than TD2 in 1992:
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... 992%29.JPG
Kinda hard to compare a grainy IR shot with a CLEAR vis image that CLEARLY shows NO eastward moving cloud elements.
Show me the eastward moving cloud element or a west wind...Or give it up.
EWG...give me the definition of a tropical depression...
and then back that definition with HARD CORE DATA.
Definition of a TD from Dictionary.com: a cyclone in a tropical region that is more intense than a disturbance but less than a storm, with wind speeds of 38 mph or less
and here is their definition of a tropical cyclone: A violent storm originating over tropical or subtropical waters, characterized by violent rainstorms and high-velocity cyclonic winds
I think this storm meets both of those criteria, and even if it isn't a TD at the moment (because of possibly no LLC), I feel strongly that it will become one within 24 hrs. (if dry air, and shear can not destroy it before hand).
Remember though: this is my opinion. I am not forcing anyone to believe it.
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Mon Jul 31, 2006 1:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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