More storms expected this hurricane season

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By LAMAUR STANCIL
lamaur.stancil@scripps.com
July 27, 2006

MELBOURNE — Floridians would like to forget names such as Frances, Jeanne, Erin and Andrew.
But revisiting those hurricanes and others from the past century is one of the ways scientists are using to develop forecasting techniques. Florida Institute of Technology in Melbourne gathered hurricane experts from its faculty for a Wednesday panel about the 2006 storm season. The professors agree with most meteorologists who predict there are plenty more storms to contend with this yea

"July is traditionally a quiet month in the hurricane season," said John Williams, who runs the school's hurricane research program. "Don't lull yourself into a false sense of security because nothing has happened."
Two named storms, Alberto and Beryl, have developed so far in the hurricane season, which started June 1. Fifteen named storms are expected to follow, Williams said. However, this season is off to a slower start than last year, when the fourth named storm, Dennis, struck Florida in early July, said Steven Lazarus, assistant professor of marine and environmental systems.

"August is when things ramp up," Williams said.

Williams, Lazarus and their academic colleagues across the country are trying to determine what factors have led to the increase in severe storms in recent years. Many factors — including global warming — are considered, with one strong indicator being the surface temperatures on the Atlantic Ocean, Lazarus said. Records indicate a series of warm and cold cycles in the Atlantic during the 120 years, with the warm cycles lasting as long as 40 years and the cold cycles going 20 years or more. Since hurricanes are spawned by cyclones picking up heat from the ocean, the warm cycles show more hurricane activity, he said.

"We just started a warm cycle in 1995," Lazarus said.

But looking to storm seasons of years prior to 1960 is spotty because of the lack of satellite monitoring, Williams said. Therefore, it's difficult to develop a trend or to know whether 2005 was truly a record-breaking year.

"In the 1950s, the only basis we had of knowing about storms developing in the Atlantic was if a boat happened to be out there when it happened," Williams said.

Technology has come a long way since the first weather satellite launched nearly 50 years ago, Williams said. But there's still plenty of research to be done.

"We need to find out what makes these storms intensify and where they will go," Williams said. "If I'm a businessman, I don't care how many of these storms we have. I'd want to know where the big ones are going. We aren't at that point yet."

Named storms: 17

Storm days: 85

Hurricanes: 9

Intense storms: 5

• Odds of a Category 3 storm hitting the U.S. eastern coastline: 69 percent

Dr. William Gray, Colorado State University