Air Force Met wrote:Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Looks like the LLC(Yes it is one)has become even more developed which now you can clearly see. Also convection has been firing up...The thing hurting the system is northwestly shear of 20 knots...Which is pushing the convection off. On the last few frames it shows convection is starting to fire over the LLC. This LLC looks very good right now...Would not at all be suprized if this was upgraded to a 1.5/2.0t later today. With it about ready to go through the islands the nhc needs to watch this.
You have a sharp NE-Sw orientated CUSP...you do not have a LLC. Get out the vis-a-vis and write on the monitor and the cusp will come alive...and you will see there are no eastward moving cloud elements. The LLC does not look that good because it isn't there in ground-relative terms. Stop following the center with your eyes. Grab a marker and analyze the elements.
It's a cusp. NE-SW and sharp...close to being closed but not yet.
AFM, it's refreshing to hear people, including mets, refer to the good ol' cusp. Maybe analysts tend to skip over the cusp stage in cyclone development.