INVEST 99L near Leewards,comments,sat pics,etc #4

[shaggy]

No, it just needs an LLC. Windspeed is not considered.

wind speeds not condsidered? not considered for what?

[x-y-no]

2 knts are you kiddin me 2 knts is it and this is suppose to be a forming TD? Anyone thinking this is a TD needs to remember there are winds that are required to reach 30mph before it can go TD so let me know when it gains another 28mph!

Ummm ... even very powerful TCs will have very light winds in the center.

That said, I'm not particularly excited over a 2 knot NW wind either.

[AJC3]

2 knts are you kiddin me 2 knts is it and this is suppose to be a forming TD? Anyone thinking this is a TD needs to remember there are winds that are required to reach 30mph before it can go TD so let me know when it gains another 28mph!

Couple points here:

1) There is no low end wind threshold for a TD (now write this on the blackboard 1,000 times...j/k)

2) QS shows plenty of 25 knot wind vectors on the north side of the vort center. Once this closes off, you'll still only have about 10 knots of SW-W winds in the SW quad of the circ.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_1.html

[Thunder44]

Convection doesn't look to be decreasing to me. If anything it's increased again over the last few hours and expanded over that "Cusp" AFM is talking about it. It looks better than it has been since it was in the Central Atlantic. Pressures having been falling all afternoon as this cusp has approached. Despite not so favorable conditions, this thing is beating the odds and continues to get better orgainzed slowly. I'm convinced now that it's on it way to becoming the next tropical cyclone of 2006.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

[White Cap]

I think recon should get called back in.

Once recon is called off... it takes at least 24-hours notice to call them back in.

Maybe they could email them quicker?

[shaggy]

2 knts are you kiddin me 2 knts is it and this is suppose to be a forming TD? Anyone thinking this is a TD needs to remember there are winds that are required to reach 30mph before it can go TD so let me know when it gains another 28mph!

Ummm ... even very powerful TCs will have very light winds in the center.

That said, I'm not particularly excited over a 2 knot NW wind either.

very true all TC have calmer winds in the center but before the center gets there they have winds higher than 39mph.... this one has had some decent winds but not anything close to TD so i agree that it is really cloe to closing off but it needs a little more time and alittle less shear!

[Air Force Met]

Bouy 41100 - 20:00 GMT

pressure 1011.8mb

wind NW at < 2 knots

I think those are TSTM winds. The vort center, from the GHCC still image, appears to be near 16.1/58.1. The buoy is at 15.9/57.9.

So the buou should have some SE winds right now....but it is under a TSTM and has NW winds...so I think that is most likely what it is...and as we saw earlier...there was no no real veering of the winds as it approached.

[WindRunner]

I'm not sounding an alarm or anything, but if you look at the vis loop you might just notice a couple of (barely) eastward moving clouds in the last 5 or so frames (ending at 18:45Z image) that are getting pulled under the new convective flareup over the center. Then again, I might have been staring at that loop too long . . .

No offense...but I'm looking at a better sat loop than the SSD page.

Haha . . . I don't doubt it, and would actually be surprised if that's what you were using. But it's (almost) the best available on the internet, and certainly the easiest to access.

And I was trying to contradict you one bit, you showed me the lull on the south side this morning, and I've had the SSD loop up all day waiting for some clouds to turn around and head east . . . and that was the best I had seen yet, sadly . . .

[NDG]

Sorry, this is a duplicate

[wxmann_91]

OK, silly question here:

What is a cusp and how can you discern it in Sats?

[senorpepr]

AFM, it's refreshing to hear people, including mets, refer to the good ol' cusp. Maybe analysts tend to skip over the cusp stage in cyclone development.

Well...I have two things to thank for that:

1) METSAT school...and
2) Tropical Metorology course at Keelser...in which I steamlined my fanny off using satellite imagery and a bunch of charts with a few wind barbs on it.

The CUSP is all important and is the final step before it closes off. Whether it takes the next step is up to it.

I went through that same tropical met course at Keesler, and I know you had your share of streamlining in that course. By the end of the day, my hands would be black, blue, and red from the markers plus I would be peppered with eraser shavings.

[shaggy]

1) There is no low end wind threshold for a TD (now write this on the blackboard 1,000 times...j/k)


is there a chart or scale that shows this as i have always heard that winds have to reach 30mph before it can be classified!?

[x-y-no]

Bouy 41100 - 20:00 GMT

pressure 1011.8mb

wind NW at < 2 knots

I think those are TSTM winds. The vort center, from the GHCC still image, appears to be near 16.1/58.1. The buoy is at 15.9/57.9.

So the buou should have some SE winds right now....but it is under a TSTM and has NW winds...so I think that is most likely what it is...and as we saw earlier...there was no no real veering of the winds as it approached.

Yeah - steady ENE winds until this last report.

I'm not arguing with you, AFM!

Interesting to see the pressure down below 1012mb though. I wasn't sure we were going to see that.

[AJC3]

1) There is no low end wind threshold for a TD (now write this on the blackboard 1,000 times...j/k)


is there a chart or scale that shows this as i have always heard that winds have to reach 30mph before it can be classified!?

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/A1.html

"Tropical cyclones with maximum sustained surface winds of less than 17 m/s (34 kt, 39 mph) are called "tropical depressions" (This is not to be confused with the condition mid-latitude people get during a long, cold and grey winter wishing they could be closer to the equator ). Once the tropical cyclone reaches winds of at least 17 m/s (34 kt, 39 mph) they are typically called a "tropical storm" and assigned a name."

[Air Force Met]

Haha . . . I don't doubt it, and would actually be surprised if that's what you were using. But it's (almost) the best available on the internet, and certainly the easiest to access.

And I was trying to contradict you one bit, you showed me the lull on the south side this morning, and I've had the SSD loop up all day waiting for some clouds to turn around and head east . . . and that was the best I had seen yet, sadly . . .

I use the SSD when I am at home and for one reason only. I only use the SSD when I go to bed...so that when I wake up all I have to do is turn on the monitor and I can instantly see a snapshot of what is happening without having to hit any buttons since it auto-refreshes. Other than that...I don't use it because the resolution is not good enough for me.

The clouds on the south side have gone from a lull to now a SW motion...which means the cusp is sharpening...which is the last stage before cutoff and a LLC forms.

[Grease Monkey]

[Air Force Met]

I went through that same tropical met course at Keesler, and I know you had your share of streamlining in that course. By the end of the day, my hands would be black, blue, and red from the markers plus I would be peppered with eraser shavings.

Yeah. Here is a tip. Water colored markers and a q-tip and bleach! that way when you mess it up...you can erase!

I love streamlining. Not sure when you went through, but they actually took one of my maps and put them into the "how to" binder. It was one of the WPAC basin maps. Pretty cool.

[AJC3]

AFM, it's refreshing to hear people, including mets, refer to the good ol' cusp. Maybe analysts tend to skip over the cusp stage in cyclone development.

Well...I have two things to thank for that:

1) METSAT school...and
2) Tropical Metorology course at Keelser...in which I steamlined my fanny off using satellite imagery and a bunch of charts with a few wind barbs on it.

The CUSP is all important and is the final step before it closes off. Whether it takes the next step is up to it.

I went through that same tropical met course at Keesler, and I know you had your share of streamlining in that course. By the end of the day, my hands would be black, blue, and red from the markers plus I would be peppered with eraser shavings.

I call one of the mets at our office a "streamline god" - he's that good at it. As for me, well I had to take remedial penmanship in middle school, so that should tell you all you need to know.

[Air Force Met]

Yeah - steady ENE winds until this last report.

I'm not arguing with you, AFM!

Interesting to see the pressure down below 1012mb though. I wasn't sure we were going to see that.

NP...no debate here.

About the pressure. Remember...we are near the dirunal min for pressure. You can automatically take away 2 MB from the 1011mb (from the 12z run we were talking about earlier) just because of the diurnal pressure swing. If this was at 10am this morning and the wave was there...the pressure would be about 1014.

Diurnal pressure mins (roughly): 4 am/pm local (largest at pm)
Diurnal pressure maxz (roughly): 10 am/pm local (largest at am)

[NONAME]

So it is closing of then AFM