The Wave SW of Cape Verde Islands

#61 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 12:30 pm

Surprised they haven't declared it 91L yet - it looks quite menacing. Since I do think either 99L or 90L (or both) will develop, this could be Debby or Ernesto here...

#62 Postby **Rieyeuxs** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 12:36 pm

AJC3 wrote:Was just looking at the 31/00Z ECM and 31/12Z GFS and they both have "shifted their attention", so to speak, away from the system that moved offshore a day or so ago, and now want to spin up a system progged to exit the coast in about 60-72 hours.

Which do you this is more impressive? I was surprised at lack of attention by the NHC this morning. IMHO, either of these look like they have a greater potential to develop than anything "closer"

#63 Postby **AJC3** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 12:41 pm

Rieyeuxs wrote:
AJC3 wrote:Was just looking at the 31/00Z ECM and 31/12Z GFS and they both have "shifted their attention", so to speak, away from the system that moved offshore a day or so ago, and now want to spin up a system progged to exit the coast in about 60-72 hours.

Which do you this is more impressive? I was surprised at lack of attention by the NHC this morning. IMHO, either of these look like they have a greater potential to develop than anything "closer"

There appears to be decent low level vorticity with both waves. however neither looks like one of those eye-popping monsoon depressions that I affectionately nickname "bowling balls" that you see roll of the west African coast During AUG-SEP.

It's like what's been said about that area time and time again..."wake me up when they hold together past 40W".

#64 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 12:46 pm

Anyway, my August prediction for the Atlantic:

6 named storms - 4 hurricanes - 2 major hurricanes - 4 US landfalls (2 as tropical storms, 2 as hurricanes - one of them major)

Weatherfreak000 · #65 Postby **Weatherfreak000** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 1:00 pm

Looks to be just a part of the ITCZ zone to me. Am I correct in this reasoning?

#66 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 1:01 pm

Weatherfreak000 wrote:Looks to be just a part of the ITCZ zone to me. Am I correct in this reasoning?

Other than part of the ITCZ, it's likely the best looking wave to emerge this season, and also most likely has the best chance to develop.

clfenwi · #67 Postby **clfenwi** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 1:04 pm

2:05 pm TWD

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A DEVELOPING TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED IN THE FAR EAST ATLANTIC
JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS WILL BE ADDED AS A
TROPICAL WAVE TO THE 18Z MAP AS VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON CLEARLY SHOWS CYCLONIC CURVATURE.
FURTHERMORE...THE DAKAR UPPER AIR TIME SECTION ANALYSIS SHOWS
THE DEVELOPING WAVE MOVED THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY WHEN NE WINDS
VEERED SE.

#68 Postby **Rieyeuxs** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 1:11 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Surprised they haven't declared it 91L yet - it looks quite menacing. Since I do think either 99L or 90L (or both) will develop, this could be Debby or Ernesto here...

I was thinking that 99L had a chance, but if you look at the NHC's Tropical Cyclone danger areas, they's taken 99L out of consideration for development. Previously the NHC gave it a 36 hr window, but I wouldn't be surprised if that invest was dropped soon. I'm looking for 91L to be declared here soon.

Grease Monkey · #69 Postby **Grease Monkey** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 1:24 pm

Do they wait for it to get further west in the atlantic before declaring any invests?

#70 Postby **Rieyeuxs** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 1:30 pm

I've asked about the official definition for a Invest to be declared, but I've never gotten a good answer. In short, dunno... :?:

#71 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 4:34 pm

Is that an Upper Level High over the Cape Verde Islands.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/QHQA17.jpg

WindRunner · #72 Postby **WindRunner** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 4:45 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:Is that an Upper Level High over the Cape Verde Islands.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/QHQA17.jpg

Well . . . it's a 200mb map, presenting anticyclonic turning, so I'd say yes, it is a ULH. There is also one over the north central Caribbean, and there is that pesky ULL over the Bahamas. Nice find! (the map, that is)

#73 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 6:55 pm

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ADDED TO THE 18 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS NEAR THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 23W/24W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 15
KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THIS EVENING CLEARLY SHOWS
WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC CURVATURE AND A CLASSIC INVERTED V-SHAPE.
FURTHERMORE...THE DAKAR UPPER AIR TIME SECTION ANALYSIS SHOWS
THAT N WINDS VEERED SE INDICATING A WAVE PASSAGE ON SUNDAY. THIS
WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A FAIRLY STABLE ENVIRONMENT LIKELY
SUPPRESSING ANY AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE ANALYZED WAVE AXIS AND WITHIN
300 NM EAST OF THE AXIS. MORE CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE ITCZ AHEAD OF THE WAVE.

8 PM Discussion about new wave.

shaggy · #74 Postby **shaggy** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 8:43 pm

doesn't look real good right now we will have to wait and see if some storms can fire once it gets a little further west!Good curvature tho so needs to eb watched.

#75 Postby **Rieyeuxs** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 8:50 pm

Rieyeuxs wrote: I was thinking that 99L had a chance, but if you look at the NHC's Tropical Cyclone danger areas, they's taken 99L out of consideration for development. Previously the NHC gave it a 36 hr window, but I wouldn't be surprised if that invest was dropped soon. I'm looking for 91L to be declared here soon.

I've obviously choking down a big helping of crow here. Any ideas on what helps get it down? :cheesy:

Tampa_God · #76 Postby **Tampa_God** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 7:56 am

What about the wave after this? :eek:

#77 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 11:23 am

Tampa_God wrote:What about the wave after this?

I think that is what the models are keying in on. That is an impressive looking complex of storms poised to move off the coast.

#78 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 1:17 pm

All of these models are showing development..

CMC 12Z
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... hour=144hr
GFS 12Z
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=144hr
NOGAPS
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc ... hour=120hr
UKMET
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... hour=144hr

plazaglass · #79 Postby **plazaglass** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 1:29 pm

In layman's terms, what indicates development on those maps?

Thanks in advance from a curious novice.

WmE · #80 Postby **WmE** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 1:30 pm

Look at the lower pressure off the african coast.

The Wave SW of Cape Verde Islands

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