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Extremeweatherguy wrote: I agree wxman. It will be a difficult track for sure. The thing that scares me though is that if it can reach the Gulf, this thing might explode over the loop current like Katrina, Rita, Wilma, or Alberto did.
wxman57 wrote:
The disturbance is located in the southeast quadrant of an upper-level low, a region that tends to cause a flare-up of thunderstorms, as we've seen today.
AJC3 wrote:wxman57 wrote:Y'all can continue your argument, I'll just post a few observations.
It does appear that 99L has a weak LLC located west of the convection. Winds on the west and southwest side appeat to be 15 kts or less. About 20-25 kts east of the center.
Movement appears to be to the WNW at about 15 kts.
The disturbance is located in the southeast quadrant of an upper-level low, a region that tends to cause a flare-up of thunderstorms, as we've seen today.
Once the disturbance moves a bit more to the west-northwest, the enhanced lifting caused by the upper low will diminish. The big question is whether or not the upper low was able to jump-start the disturbance enough to keep the storms going after the enhanced lifting diminishes. That remains to be seen.
If not, then we'll have a weak swirl of clouds out there for a day or two until it encounters the 2nd upper low over the SE Bahamas. Once there, storms should flare up again.
If the convection maintains itself after passing the axis of the upper level trof tonight, then shear will briefly drop and a TD could form. It would move WNW and eventually interact with the stronger upper low over the SE Bahamas. Wind shear there is fairly strong. Could rip it apart.
Making it to the southeas or south-central Gulf as a TD/TS will be a difficult trek.
End of observations. Carry on with the arguments.
Chris, one minor point to pick. The TUTT low is actually pinching off due N of the system, hence the NNW shear - I think there's pretty strong divergence aloft nonetheless. As I mentioned in another post, I think this will allow it to sneak past and ahead of the TUTT low begins before it begins to retrograde WWD.
I'll go out on a limb and say this will have no trouble maintaining at lest some convection, although it will remain in a pretty parched air mass for the next 24 hours or so. From then on, I think it will intensify.
So, AJC3, you think this is going to intensify beyond 24 hours? How strong do you think this has the potential to become?NDG wrote:AJC3 wrote:wxman57 wrote:Y'all can continue your argument, I'll just post a few observations.
It does appear that 99L has a weak LLC located west of the convection. Winds on the west and southwest side appeat to be 15 kts or less. About 20-25 kts east of the center.
Movement appears to be to the WNW at about 15 kts.
The disturbance is located in the southeast quadrant of an upper-level low, a region that tends to cause a flare-up of thunderstorms, as we've seen today.
Once the disturbance moves a bit more to the west-northwest, the enhanced lifting caused by the upper low will diminish. The big question is whether or not the upper low was able to jump-start the disturbance enough to keep the storms going after the enhanced lifting diminishes. That remains to be seen.
If not, then we'll have a weak swirl of clouds out there for a day or two until it encounters the 2nd upper low over the SE Bahamas. Once there, storms should flare up again.
If the convection maintains itself after passing the axis of the upper level trof tonight, then shear will briefly drop and a TD could form. It would move WNW and eventually interact with the stronger upper low over the SE Bahamas. Wind shear there is fairly strong. Could rip it apart.
Making it to the southeas or south-central Gulf as a TD/TS will be a difficult trek.
End of observations. Carry on with the arguments.
Chris, one minor point to pick. The TUTT low is actually pinching off due N of the system, hence the NNW shear - I think there's pretty strong divergence aloft nonetheless. As I mentioned in another post, I think this will allow it to sneak past and ahead of the TUTT low begins before it begins to retrograde WWD.
I'll go out on a limb and say this will have no trouble maintaining at lest some convection, although it will remain in a pretty parched air mass for the next 24 hours or so. From then on, I think it will intensify.
I agree with you AJC, the TUTT low is currently due N of 99L and it will get ahead of it before both TUTT lows start retrogating westward, so 99L could very well ride between the two of them.
I don't like the look of these...ronjon wrote:18Z Model Runs - ignore the CLP5 (that's climatology) - looks like most models take it just north of the islands toward S FL or the straits. Of course, once its a depression, it will be initialized by all the models and we'll see what the globals do with it also. I noticed GFDL doesn't develop it into a cyclone during its last 2 runs.
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png
Extremeweatherguy wrote:So, AJC3, you think this is going to intensify beyond 24 hours? How strong do you think this has the potential to become?NDG wrote:AJC3 wrote:wxman57 wrote:Y'all can continue your argument, I'll just post a few observations.
It does appear that 99L has a weak LLC located west of the convection. Winds on the west and southwest side appeat to be 15 kts or less. About 20-25 kts east of the center.
Movement appears to be to the WNW at about 15 kts.
The disturbance is located in the southeast quadrant of an upper-level low, a region that tends to cause a flare-up of thunderstorms, as we've seen today.
Once the disturbance moves a bit more to the west-northwest, the enhanced lifting caused by the upper low will diminish. The big question is whether or not the upper low was able to jump-start the disturbance enough to keep the storms going after the enhanced lifting diminishes. That remains to be seen.
If not, then we'll have a weak swirl of clouds out there for a day or two until it encounters the 2nd upper low over the SE Bahamas. Once there, storms should flare up again.
If the convection maintains itself after passing the axis of the upper level trof tonight, then shear will briefly drop and a TD could form. It would move WNW and eventually interact with the stronger upper low over the SE Bahamas. Wind shear there is fairly strong. Could rip it apart.
Making it to the southeas or south-central Gulf as a TD/TS will be a difficult trek.
End of observations. Carry on with the arguments.
Chris, one minor point to pick. The TUTT low is actually pinching off due N of the system, hence the NNW shear - I think there's pretty strong divergence aloft nonetheless. As I mentioned in another post, I think this will allow it to sneak past and ahead of the TUTT low begins before it begins to retrograde WWD.
I'll go out on a limb and say this will have no trouble maintaining at lest some convection, although it will remain in a pretty parched air mass for the next 24 hours or so. From then on, I think it will intensify.
I agree with you AJC, the TUTT low is currently due N of 99L and it will get ahead of it before both TUTT lows start retrogating westward, so 99L could very well ride between the two of them.
Thunder44 wrote:HurricaneHunter914 wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg
99L has an "eye" like feature with it, but its probably the dry are getting sicked into the system.
That's not where the center is. It's further north.
ok. thanks AJC3.AJC3 wrote:Extremeweatherguy wrote:So, AJC3, you think this is going to intensify beyond 24 hours? How strong do you think this has the potential to become?NDG wrote:AJC3 wrote:wxman57 wrote:Y'all can continue your argument, I'll just post a few observations.
It does appear that 99L has a weak LLC located west of the convection. Winds on the west and southwest side appeat to be 15 kts or less. About 20-25 kts east of the center.
Movement appears to be to the WNW at about 15 kts.
The disturbance is located in the southeast quadrant of an upper-level low, a region that tends to cause a flare-up of thunderstorms, as we've seen today.
Once the disturbance moves a bit more to the west-northwest, the enhanced lifting caused by the upper low will diminish. The big question is whether or not the upper low was able to jump-start the disturbance enough to keep the storms going after the enhanced lifting diminishes. That remains to be seen.
If not, then we'll have a weak swirl of clouds out there for a day or two until it encounters the 2nd upper low over the SE Bahamas. Once there, storms should flare up again.
If the convection maintains itself after passing the axis of the upper level trof tonight, then shear will briefly drop and a TD could form. It would move WNW and eventually interact with the stronger upper low over the SE Bahamas. Wind shear there is fairly strong. Could rip it apart.
Making it to the southeas or south-central Gulf as a TD/TS will be a difficult trek.
End of observations. Carry on with the arguments.
Chris, one minor point to pick. The TUTT low is actually pinching off due N of the system, hence the NNW shear - I think there's pretty strong divergence aloft nonetheless. As I mentioned in another post, I think this will allow it to sneak past and ahead of the TUTT low begins before it begins to retrograde WWD.
I'll go out on a limb and say this will have no trouble maintaining at lest some convection, although it will remain in a pretty parched air mass for the next 24 hours or so. From then on, I think it will intensify.
I agree with you AJC, the TUTT low is currently due N of 99L and it will get ahead of it before both TUTT lows start retrogating westward, so 99L could very well ride between the two of them.
Well, I don't see overall environmental conditions as becoming that great. While the air mass well ahead of the system beyond 24 hours won't be as dryas it is now, it's not going to become terribly moist either.
Similarly, while I think shear will decrease, I still think there will be some northerly shear for another day or so.
A lot of if's here. I certainly don't see rapid strenghtening, assuming any occurs at all. Once it does become a TC, I'd probably call for slow strenghtening... no more than 5 knots/12 hours. I really don't want to get any more specific than that, especially being at home and not having all the guidance here in front of me.
ROCK wrote:Weatherfreak000 wrote:Wow......I can't believe i'm saying this but.....that is a depression...no doubt about it.
hmmm.....I guess the Houston Texans will win the Superbowl this year....
Stratosphere747 wrote:ROCK wrote:Weatherfreak000 wrote:Wow......I can't believe i'm saying this but.....that is a depression...no doubt about it.
hmmm.....I guess the Houston Texans will win the Superbowl this year....
Still not a depression...If so, than 98L was a borderline cat 2...
PSL holder here...Front row, 10yd line south, opposing side. 8-8 this year..
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