INVEST 99L near Leewards,comments,sat pics,etc #4

Stratosphere747 · #201 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 5:21 pm

Possible Rock...

Though the conditions as mentioned by the NHC, are only "marginal"

Even though just the slightest up tick could warrant a TD status, it could be easily said that it may even lose organization.

conestogo_flood · #202 Postby **conestogo_flood** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 5:22 pm

If this develops, could it still move more westerly and hit the Yucatan? I will be there August 5-August 12. Playa Del Carmen. I'm not -removed-.

HurricaneHunter914 · #203 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 5:23 pm

We'll just have to wait and see.

shaggy · #204 Postby **shaggy** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 5:23 pm

last few frames its almost appearing to be moving a little more N than just WNW.May trying to tuck under some convection which might aid in the development but i am still far from sold on this one.

#205 Postby **storms in NC** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 5:23 pm

It had grown double in size from this morning

#206 Postby **NDG** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 5:23 pm

Here we go, a confirmed WSW wind at 41100

Wind Direction (WDIR): WSW ( 240 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 6.2 m/s
Wave Height (WVHT): 1.6 m
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 7 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 1012.6 mb
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.0 mb ( Steady )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 26.8 °C
Water Temperature (WTMP): 28.4 °C

Extremeweatherguy · #207 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 5:23 pm

This thing continues to look more and more organized, even from the 5:30pm discussion. I think this will easily become TD #3 this evening. some banding is finally "really" starting with this system, as well as convection over the LLC.

benny · #208 Postby **benny** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 5:24 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
benny wrote:
We'll just have to disagree about the TSTM related wind. I don't think so and I see little evidence of it on satellite. As far as the streamlines.. as someone with forecast experience in the tropics... I've never seen any use for them. Of course I suppose what it is you are forecasting makes all the difference in the world. Everyone in the Pacific loves the streamlines but I personally can't stand them. A person can invent something with satellite if you like but ... as for as TCs go.. they don't really illustrate a whole lot unless you have data.. and not just satellite. But if you find the streamlines useful.. go for it! Some people can't live without them and I'm not sure why.

Yeah...we'll have to disagree...but you won't see any evidence becuase the evidence is sitting under 40,000+ feet of clouds. It's an outflow boundry.

As far as using them in forecasting...it depends on what you are foreacsting. If you have spent time actually forecasting in the tropics...you would find them useful (and I mean putting out a forecast for a location you are at that is sitting below 20N). If you don't know why some people can't live without them...than you have never been in a limited data situation...because in that the are invaluable. YOu cannot get by without them...and I challenge you to try. Heck...I challenge ANYONE to try. I've been a forecaster for almost 20 years now...I don't use streamlines unless I am in the tropics...or to illustrate what is going on...like what happened today. The CUSP was there...it sharpened...and as I pointed out...that is the last stage before an LLC forms. Now..Bingo.

Outflow!!! My butt.

SW at 12 kts kinda proves otherwise plus WSW at 12 kt. I've said my fill on streamlines... maybe I just have mental streamlines for all the systems. I do miss quikscat when it isn't available! But if I don't have that... tough to do it with just satellite and have the same quality.

#209 Postby **storms in NC** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 5:25 pm

ncdowneast wrote:last few frames its almost appearing to be moving a little more N than just WNW.May trying to tuck under some convection which might aid in the development but i am still far from sold on this one.

This could be our turn. But wait and see I am not calling yet till it get east of Fla

Extremeweatherguy · #210 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 5:25 pm

ncdowneast wrote:last few frames its almost appearing to be moving a little more N than just WNW.May trying to tuck under some convection which might aid in the development but i am still far from sold on this one.

you think so? I thought it seemed to be going more westward in the last few frames. May be increasing convection around the center is tricking our eyes.

ROCK · #211 Postby **ROCK** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 5:26 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:This thing continues to look more and more organized, even from the 5:30pm discussion. I think this will easily become TD #3 this evening. some banding is finally "really" starting with this system, as well as convection over the LLC.

Agreed, become vertically stacked as I like call it.

#212 Postby **NDG** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 5:28 pm

storms in NC wrote:
ncdowneast wrote:last few frames its almost appearing to be moving a little more N than just WNW.May trying to tuck under some convection which might aid in the development but i am still far from sold on this one.

This could be our turn. But wait and see I am not calling yet till it get east of Fla

No is continuing on its WNW course, you are seeing the expansion of convection moving northward.

HurricaneHunter914 · #213 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 5:28 pm

NDG wrote:Here we go, a confirmed WSW wind at 41100

Wind Direction (WDIR): WSW ( 240 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 6.2 m/s
Wave Height (WVHT): 1.6 m
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 7 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 1012.6 mb
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.0 mb ( Steady )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 26.8 °C
Water Temperature (WTMP): 28.4 °C

What exactly does a confirmed WSW wind mean? Sorry if its a dumb question.

shaggy · #214 Postby **shaggy** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 5:29 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
ncdowneast wrote:last few frames its almost appearing to be moving a little more N than just WNW.May trying to tuck under some convection which might aid in the development but i am still far from sold on this one.
you think so? I thought it seemed to be going more westward in the last few frames. May be increasing convection around the center is confusing us.

something tells me confusion may be the name of the game for the next day because tonight at 11pm when they still have not classified it people will be going "i am so confused why they haven't named it" But to my ametuer eyes it seems that as the blow up of storms went over the top the last couple of images showed it kind of join in to it but with the shear making the tops move one way theres really no way for me to say which way the WEAK LLC is moving.

#215 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 5:29 pm

Still WNW...just more convection is now increasing on the northern and eastward sides giving the illusion of northward motion.

#216 Postby **NDG** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 5:30 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:
NDG wrote:Here we go, a confirmed WSW wind at 41100

Wind Direction (WDIR): WSW ( 240 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 6.2 m/s
Wave Height (WVHT): 1.6 m
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 7 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 1012.6 mb
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.0 mb ( Steady )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 26.8 °C
Water Temperature (WTMP): 28.4 °C

What exactly does a confirmed WSW wind mean? Sorry if its a dumb question.

Confirmed by the buoy.

greels · #217 Postby **greels** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 5:31 pm

I am watching this system quite closely here in the Turks and Caicos Islands....we seldom get mentioned in weather reports, as things seem to focus more on our neighbors, the southern Bahamas.

perk · #218 Postby **perk** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 5:32 pm

Anybody have an idea on what GOM conditions will be in about 5 or 6 days.

#219 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 5:32 pm

storms in NC wrote:And who will shave thier head?

Nobody. You might want to go back and read what I said...

On Saturday I said:
"It's not written off...and of all the actual "waves" that we have followed...this has the best chance to develop in a classical sense (not like Alberto did...or like his ugly little sister)...a good wave to a good looking depression...etc.

It's gonna take another 36-48 hours I think...maybe a little sooner...maybe...before it can get the convection it needs...plus you have to normal lag time for upgrade...etc."

Guess what...it's been 48 hours.

As far as shaving my head...it wasn't about development...it was about movement:

"The analysist should have seen and thought of that. If this wave has only moved 4 degrees in the next 3 days...I'll shave my head and post the pics on the internet."

Guess what...the wave was only forecast (at 48 hours) to be at 52W when I made that statement...the valid time was at 12Z this morning. As of 12Z tomorrow...it should only be at 55-56W. It's already at 58W.

So...no shaving my head
:lol:

#220 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 5:33 pm

NDG wrote:
storms in NC wrote:And who will shave thier head?

Good question!!! Thanks for reminding us.

Read the reply...and make sure you get the facts right.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... &start=200

:wink:

INVEST 99L near Leewards,comments,sat pics,etc #4

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