INVEST 99L near Leewards,comments,sat pics,etc #4

[Thunder44]

6pm obs

Barbados now reporting WSW wind at 14mph:

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TBPB.html

Guadelope now reporting NNE wind at 10mph

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TFFR.html

[storms in NC]

I just got back from eye doc and can't see nothing. So could someone be so kind and give me the Numbers to where this low is. Thank you Deb

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

There looks to be strong northwestly shear of about 20 knots over this system...Which is making it development slower then it would otherwise would be...But overall the LLC is very close to totally closing over...As the nhc noted that it maybe already. So depression by 5am looks like its possible. Hopefully it will out run the 2002 like tutt its dealing with. Come on Chris!

[skysummit]

But if we type the numbers, how are you going to be able to read them?

[NDG]

And who will shave thier head?

Nobody. You might want to go back and read what I said...

On Saturday I said:
"It's not written off...and of all the actual "waves" that we have followed...this has the best chance to develop in a classical sense (not like Alberto did...or like his ugly little sister)...a good wave to a good looking depression...etc.

It's gonna take another 36-48 hours I think...maybe a little sooner...maybe...before it can get the convection it needs...plus you have to normal lag time for upgrade...etc."

Guess what...it's been 48 hours.

As far as shaving my head...it wasn't about development...it was about movement:

"The analysist should have seen and thought of that. If this wave has only moved 4 degrees in the next 3 days...I'll shave my head and post the pics on the internet."

Guess what...the wave was only forecast (at 48 hours) to be at 52W when I made that statement...the valid time was at 12Z this morning. As of 12Z tomorrow...it should only be at 55-56W. It's already at 58W.

So...no shaving my head

I agree, I think you have been one of the only pro-mets in this forum that has been like: "this is what it is, well, lets see what happens" attitude instead of writing things off too soon.

[Weatherfreak000]

There looks to be strong northwestly shear of about 20 knots over this system...Which is making it development slower then it would otherwise would be...But overall the LLC is very close to totally closing over...As the nhc noted that it maybe already. So depression by 5am looks like its possible. Hopefully it will out run the 2002 like tutt its dealing with. Come on Chris!

I think it goes without saying that's a BOLD statement to be made.

[perk]

AFM sounds like you're trying to get out of shaving your head on a technicality.

[storms in NC]

And who will shave thier head?

Good question!!! Thanks for reminding us.

Read the reply...and make sure you get the facts right.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... &start=200

I am picking on you. But as soon as I can see I will reread the post AFM

[Air Force Met]

AFM sounds like you're trying to get out of shaving your head on a technicality.

How? I said I would shave it if it only moved 4 degrees in 3 days.

Isn't that what I said...or do you have me on record as saying something different?

[cycloneye]

The center of the track is over my head. But seriously,I hope this does not turn into a big rain event for Puerto Rico as flooding starts rapidly with the orographic effects from the mountains.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/danger_atl.gif

[Air Force Met]

AFM sounds like you're trying to get out of shaving your head on a technicality.

Here is the whole post, since you obviously seem too lazy to look it up for yourself.

bvigal wrote:
What do these surface maps tell you? It's going to slow down, a lot!

Air Force Met wrote:
I have to say I disagree with those maps. It is moving at 20 knots...and is all of the sudden gonna slow down to 3-4 knots?

1) Tropical waves don't move that slow...and
2) It is still under the Bermuda High...so how can it slow down?

Whoever drew those maps took the wave position off the GFS output. I went and checked the positions and matched them with the model.

The model is treating it like a stacked system...and since the 500mb flow is collapsing...it stalls it out.

However, waves don't go with the 500mb flow. They go with the lower level flow and the lower level flow is not going to change all that much over the next 3 days.

The analysist should have seen and thought of that. If this wave has only moved 4 degrees in the next 3 days...I'll shave my head and post the pics on the internet.

[perk]

AFM i read your post. I'm just giving you a hard time .(LIGHTEN UP).

[Air Force Met]

AFM i read your post. I'm just giving you a hard time .

I know...and I was just returning the favor...hence the

[wxman57]

AFM i read your post. I'm just giving you a hard time .

I know...and I was just returning the favor...hence the

I think you need to shave your head and post a pic.

[southerngale]

The center of the track is over my head. But seriously,I hope this does not turn into a big rain event for Puerto Rico as flooding starts rapidly with the orographic effects from the mountains.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/danger_atl.gif

I hope y'all do not see any flooding anywhere in the islands...perhaps it will go north of Puerto Rico and miss most of the islands. I am glad to see that it looks like it could miss the GOM though...I was thinking it might track right through the Caribbean. I don't know what the steering currents are/will be (someone feel free to chime in with those), but that at least looks better than what I was thinking.

[Air Force Met]

AFM i read your post. I'm just giving you a hard time .

I know...and I was just returning the favor...hence the

I think you need to shave your head and post a pic.

I think you know what you can do...

[wxman57]

AFM i read your post. I'm just giving you a hard time .

I know...and I was just returning the favor...hence the

I think you need to shave your head and post a pic.

I think you know what you can do...

Go eat dinner?

[storms in NC]

AFM i read your post. I'm just giving you a hard time .

I know...and I was just returning the favor...hence the

I think you need to shave your head and post a pic.

[benny]

TD #3 is gonna be coming with the buoy and Barbados ob..

[Extremeweatherguy]

The center of the track is over my head. But seriously,I hope this does not turn into a big rain event for Puerto Rico as flooding starts rapidly with the orographic effects from the mountains.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/danger_atl.gif

I hope y'all do not see any flooding anywhere in the islands...perhaps it will go north of the islands and miss everyone. I am glad to see that it looks like it could miss the GOM though...I was thinking it might track right through the Caribbean. I don't know what the steering currents are/will be (someone feel free to chime in with those), but that at least looks better than what I was thinking.

I hope you end up being right SG, but from what I am seeing/hearing right now it seems like this may track into or just south of Florida and into the GOM by next week. If this happens, then all bets are off for how strong it could get and where it might go. I would continue to watch this one very closely, and hopefully it will die out well before the GOM.