Tropical Storm Fabio in EPAC

#21 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 3:33 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072006
200 PM PDT MON JUL 31 2006

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 1411Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATE THAT THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...LOCATED ABOUT 830 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...HAS FORMED INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF RELATIVELY STABLE AIR AND
MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COOLER SEA SURFACES
TEMPERATURES IN 48 HOURS. THEREFORE...ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING IS
ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING
LIKELY THEREAFTER. IN FACT...THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
SYSTEM COULD DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 280/11. MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION IS A BIT
TO THE SOUTH OF THE GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE FIX ESTIMATES. ALL
MODELS SUGGEST A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITHIN THE
DEEP-LAYERED FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
ANTICYCLONE THAT IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE. IN RESPONSE TO THE EXPECTED BUILDING OF THE
RIDGE...THE NHC TRACK FORECAST SHOWS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED LATER IN THE PERIOD.

ROBERTS/PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/2100Z 14.2N 122.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 01/0600Z 14.3N 123.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 01/1800Z 14.5N 126.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 02/0600Z 14.9N 128.3W 45 KT
48HR VT 02/1800Z 15.4N 130.6W 45 KT
72HR VT 03/1800Z 16.5N 135.0W 40 KT
96HR VT 04/1800Z 16.5N 140.0W 35 KT
120HR VT 05/1800Z 16.5N 145.0W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
WWWW

#22 Postby **AnnularCane** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 5:05 pm

Awwww, it's so cute. :wink:

HurricaneHunter914 · #23 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 5:08 pm

Seems like the EPAC wanted to get one final TC before there active month ended.

#24 Postby **Andrew92** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 5:09 pm

The name Fabio has recently been one of the weakest storms in the EPAC in the year of rotation. I barely remember it in 1994 and 2000, though I understand a storm named Fabio in 1988 was a C4 hurricane but stayed out at sea. I'm gonna call for this to become Fabio, and be another "nothing" storm. Too close to the cooler waters to really get its act together, I think.

-Andrew92

Cyclenall · #25 Postby **Cyclenall** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 7:54 pm

This is now Tropical Storm Fabio with 35 Knots and a pressure of 1005 mb. Change the title of the thread.

#26 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 7:54 pm

FABIO!!!!

#27 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 8:25 pm

TROPICAL STORM FABIO (EP072006) ON 20060801 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060801 0000 060801 1200 060802 0000 060802 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.4N 122.7W 15.1N 124.8W 16.1N 127.0W 17.3N 129.5W
BAMM 14.4N 122.7W 14.9N 124.7W 15.8N 126.9W 16.8N 129.3W
LBAR 14.4N 122.7W 14.8N 125.1W 15.8N 127.7W 17.2N 130.5W
SHIP 35KTS 43KTS 48KTS 49KTS
DSHP 35KTS 43KTS 48KTS 49KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060803 0000 060804 0000 060805 0000 060806 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.6N 132.0W 20.2N 135.6W 21.0N 137.8W 21.2N 139.4W
BAMM 17.8N 131.9W 19.0N 136.2W 20.1N 139.4W 20.9N 142.3W
LBAR 18.3N 133.0W 19.3N 137.1W 20.3N 140.0W 22.4N 141.3W
SHIP 49KTS 43KTS 40KTS 37KTS
DSHP 49KTS 43KTS 40KTS 37KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.4N LONCUR = 122.7W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 13.9N LONM12 = 120.3W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 13.8N LONM24 = 118.2W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 40NM RD34SE = 30NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 40NM

#28 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 8:33 pm

Official in 90 minutes.

Swimdude · #29 Postby **Swimdude** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 8:48 pm

FABIO?

I'm resisting putting a picture of a particular individual here.

:lol:

#30 Postby **Andrew92** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 9:00 pm

Swimdude wrote:FABIO?

I'm resisting putting a picture of a particular individual here.

Life comes at you fast. Depressions, storms, hurricanes, Nationwide is on your side.

I'll explain this if you don't get this one.

-Andrew92

Website · #31 Postby **Brent** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 9:06 pm

Swimdude wrote:FABIO?

I'm resisting putting a picture of a particular individual here.

Sounds like a male stripper to me. :lol:

#32 Postby **Andrew92** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 9:07 pm

Brent wrote:
Swimdude wrote:FABIO?

I'm resisting putting a picture of a particular individual here.

Sounds like a male stripper to me.

Well he was a male model from Italy.....dunno about stripper though.

all_we_know_is_FALLING · #33 Postby **all_we_know_is_FALLING** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 9:09 pm

Andrew92 wrote:
Brent wrote:
Swimdude wrote:FABIO?

I'm resisting putting a picture of a particular individual here.

Sounds like a male stripper to me.

Well he was a male model from Italy.....dunno about stripper though.

Fabio wasn't a stripper.

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #34 Postby **senorpepr** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 9:44 pm

Links and satellite imagery for Fabio (07E) is now available on the Storm2k Worldwide Tropical Update.

http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/
http://tropicalupdate.storm2k.org/epac.htm

HurricaneBill · #35 Postby **HurricaneBill** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 9:45 pm

He's done "I Can't Believe It's Not Butter" commercials.

Fabio also had the unfortunate experience of having a bird hit him in the face while riding a rollercoaster.

#36 Postby **Andrew92** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 9:47 pm

HurricaneBill wrote:He's done "I Can't Believe It's Not Butter" commercials.

Fabio also had the unfortunate experience of having a bird hit him in the face while riding a rollercoaster.

I just know of Fabio from that Nationwide commercial.....in which he's older and the woman finds him less appealing.

-Andrew92

#37 Postby **Andrew92** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 9:58 pm

000
WTPZ22 KNHC 010255
TCMEP2
TROPICAL STORM FABIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072006
0300 UTC TUE AUG 01 2006

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 123.3W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 123.3W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 122.7W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 14.8N 125.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 15.2N 127.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 15.8N 129.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 16.3N 132.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 16.5N 136.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 16.5N 141.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 16.5N 146.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 123.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

#38 Postby **Andrew92** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 9:58 pm

ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072006
800 PM PDT MON JUL 31 2006

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS
TO 45 KT FROM TAFB...35 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA...AND 31 KT FROM UW
CIMSS ADT. ACCORDINGLY...THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL
STORM FABIO WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT. FABIO IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WITHIN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREFORE...ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING IS
SHOWN THROUGH 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
ENCOUNTER A RATHER HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT CONSISTING OF INCREASING
VERTICAL SHEAR...DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER ATMOSPHERE...AND
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS. THESE ENVIRONMENTAL CONTROLS ARE
EXPECTED TO CAUSE WEAKENING WITH MANY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGESTING THAT THE SYSTEM COULD DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST MAINTAINS THE
CYCLONE LONGER THAN THE DYNAMICAL MODELS REPRESENTS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 280/12. GUIDANCE IS SPLIT INTO TWO
CAMPS. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING
THROUGH 48 HOURS THEN TURN THE CYCLONE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.
CONVERSELY...THE BAM MODELS SHOW A NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 48 HOUR
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT BEND TOWARD THE WEST THEREAFTER. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO SCENARIOS AND IS
ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL SUITE. THIS ALSO
REPRESENTS A SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/0300Z 14.5N 123.3W 35 KT
12HR VT 01/1200Z 14.8N 125.0W 40 KT
24HR VT 02/0000Z 15.2N 127.3W 45 KT
36HR VT 02/1200Z 15.8N 129.7W 45 KT
48HR VT 03/0000Z 16.3N 132.0W 40 KT
72HR VT 04/0000Z 16.5N 136.5W 35 KT
96HR VT 05/0000Z 16.5N 141.5W 30 KT
120HR VT 06/0000Z 16.5N 146.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN

NNNN

#39 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 10:26 pm

does anyone have the graphic for this and 8-E

all_we_know_is_FALLING · #40 Postby **all_we_know_is_FALLING** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 11:06 pm

Andrew92 wrote:
HurricaneBill wrote:He's done "I Can't Believe It's Not Butter" commercials.

Fabio also had the unfortunate experience of having a bird hit him in the face while riding a rollercoaster.

I just know of Fabio from that Nationwide commercial.....in which he's older and the woman finds him less appealing.

-Andrew92

He was famous back in the 90s. On the cover of romance novels and as a model or something.

Tropical Storm Fabio in EPAC

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