Tropical Depression 3=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

perk · #61 Postby **perk** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 8:25 pm

Katdaddy i know exactly what you mean about Rita.I sat at my computer and tracked storms for years knowing that most of them would end up no where near the western gulf coast. Rita brought it home for me, having to prepare my family and home for a possible cat4 storm was stressful to say the least. I can still see the caos in the stores, on the highways, and on the television.

#62 Postby **drezee** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 8:27 pm

Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:Question; because it was upgraded at 0000 z August 1st, would we count TD 3 as forming in July, or as forming in August? I'm unsure myself. Any thoughts.

Depends on the Best Track

#63 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 8:27 pm

perk wrote:Katdaddy i know exactly what you mean about Rita.I sat at my computer and tracked storms for years knowing that most of them would end up no where near the western gulf coast. Rita brought it home for me, having to prepare my family and home for a possible cat4 storm was stressful to say the least. I can still see the caos in the stores, on the highways, and on the television.

If this even gets remotely close to the GOM, people in NOLA will be going insane....especially since Bob Breck is already telling us we have absolutely nothing to worry about.

#64 Postby **Rieyeuxs** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 8:27 pm

What confirmed the LLC? I thought the wave hadn't completely closed yet???

Also, I don't see it listed at the FNMOC site (although they dropped 90L) I only see the designation on the back-up navy site. Also the 530 TWO only hinted it might become a TD. Where's the rest of the info coming from?

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A WEAK CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED
IN THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION WOULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. WHETHER OR NOT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEVELOPS...
LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY
OVER PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

Just curious

#65 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 8:28 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:I guess I called it right a couple of hours ago.

Something about this one has my attention.

I expect slow and gradual strengthening with a more westerly track maybe just moving south of PR.

Well...on Saturday I said give it 48 hours...it's been a little longer than that...and I am a little surprised it has kept up with the convection today and the CUSP closed off...given no bursts over the center. However, anytime you see the cusp...you can usually anticipate it closing off if you have decent convection....like I said on the other thread...a cusp is like the wave approaching shore right before it breaks.

As far as movement, I like a track real close to the PR or just south of there for the official track at 11. If it takes a track a little north of PR...I think it will get trashed. Hispnola will kill it. Track a little south? It has a better chance.

HUC · #66 Postby **HUC** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 8:28 pm

On the Martinique radar(range 400kms,but this one is acess restricted!!!)you can see between 116 and 17N and 57 and 58 W a center of cloud rotation,moving West .I think that you got a free access to the Martinique and Guadeloupe radar over the web;try :meteo.gp,and search the radar access.

jaxfladude · #67 Postby **jaxfladude** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 8:28 pm

So it looks like this hurricane season may be ready to start it's "busy" period, let us all be on alert and help one another if the need arises...and come what may.

P.S. This is the best site IMHO....

hurricanefloyd5 · #68 Postby **hurricanefloyd5** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 8:29 pm

well do be afraid ok!!!!!!!!!!!!!

#69 Postby **george_r_1961** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 8:29 pm

No STDS yet...im surprised NHC didnt issue one yet since its a threat to the islands.

#70 Postby **Rieyeuxs** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 8:31 pm

Sorry to beat a dead horse since somebody obviously confirmed this. I'm just confused because even after reading the 805 ECT NHC TWD, they still hadn't classified it as a TD

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUL 31 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1011 MB LOW HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES NEAR 16.5N 58.5W. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
THIS WEAK CIRCULATION IS AT THE SURFACE. ASSOCIATED SHOWER
AND TSTM ACTIVITY IS LIMITED AND CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA FROM
15N-17.5N BETWEEN 56W-58.5W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER...ONLY
A SMALL INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION
OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. REGARDLESS IF THAT
OCCURS...SHOWERS...TSTMS AND SPORADIC GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
SPREADING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON TUE AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10-15 KT.

Geez, I'm off the board for a while and everything breaks loose

cheezyWXguy · #71 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 8:33 pm

george_r_1961 wrote:No STDS yet...

thats inappropriate! :lol:

#72 Postby **Hybridstorm_November2001** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 8:34 pm

Interesting the 48 hr shear map shows a lot of upper level High Pressure, and far less of an extend to the ULLs. This one will have to be watched:

Audrey2Katrina · #73 Postby **Audrey2Katrina** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 8:34 pm

But not before it passes the longitud of the Leewards,VI and Puerto Rico.

Or turns NORTH and out to sea--"gone Fishing!".... be fine with me!

A2K

DESTRUCTION5 · #74 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 8:35 pm

Rieyeuxs wrote:Sorry to beat a dead horse since somebody obviously confirmed this. I'm just confused because even after reading the 805 ECT NHC TWD, they still hadn't classified it as a TD

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUL 31 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1011 MB LOW HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES NEAR 16.5N 58.5W. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
THIS WEAK CIRCULATION IS AT THE SURFACE. ASSOCIATED SHOWER
AND TSTM ACTIVITY IS LIMITED AND CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA FROM
15N-17.5N BETWEEN 56W-58.5W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER...ONLY
A SMALL INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION
OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. REGARDLESS IF THAT
OCCURS...SHOWERS...TSTMS AND SPORADIC GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
SPREADING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON TUE AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10-15 KT.

Geez, I'm off the board for a while and everything breaks loose

Its official read 1st page..

Grease Monkey · #75 Postby **Grease Monkey** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 8:36 pm

Brent wrote::woo:

Audrey2Katrina · #76 Postby **Audrey2Katrina** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 8:36 pm

If this even gets remotely close to the GOM, people in NOLA will be going insane....especially since Bob Breck is already telling us we have absolutely nothing to worry about.

Ol' Bob never changes... does he?

Hope he's right on this one.

A2K

benny · #77 Postby **benny** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 8:37 pm

caribepr wrote:
HurricaneHunter914 wrote:I think that these hollers are not a big problem to these threads. Its not like we are saying we want this to hit anybody, we're just celebrating the fact that this wave has finally become a TD.

Gotcha on that. Here is where it is a problem for more than a few. One post saying Yahoo or Yay or FINALLY doesn't say much at all. I don't know your age, nor do I care. Posting on a board like S2K should be a little bit more articulate - we have 13 year olds who are extremely intelligent and articulate, so I'm NOT talking age.
If you are excited that a weather system has reached a point of development you are looking forward to, WRITE that! Post something with some thoughtfulness in it, such as, wow, I didn't think (or I DID think) this would happen! Hopefully it will steer clear of the islands (or whatever coast it happens to be near), point out the weather beauty of it, the particulars of the system...what you believe, based on research, might be the future growth or demise of the system.
When people who have had their lives radically changed, or who's lives might BECOME radically changed see YAHHHOOOOOOOOO or FINALLYYYYYYY or whatever...it just...is like...a PUNCH IN THE GUT...even though intellectually they KNOW you, or whoever, is simply excited about the development of the system.
THINK OUTSIDE THE BOX OF YOURSELF AND YOUR OWN EXCITEMENT, please? Use your knowlege and your passion in tandem.
It will save a hell of a lot of hurt and grow you up some. Two not so bad things...YAHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

It is the whole censorship versus free speech concept. YAHOOOO doesn't say much to me. It doesn't say anything. Why is anyone reading this board if they hate storms? I haven't seen anyone make an offensive statement like "Oh I want this to cream so and so". That is bad. FINALLLLY is... nothing. We all need to lighten up IMHO.

benny · #78 Postby **benny** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 8:38 pm

drezee wrote:
Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:Question; because it was upgraded at 0000 z August 1st, would we count TD 3 as forming in July, or as forming in August? I'm unsure myself. Any thoughts.

Depends on the Best Track

If they started it at 0000z... then August. If before.. July. Usually they do these things in UTC but you never know.

shaggy · #79 Postby **shaggy** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 8:40 pm

this is a private board and so free speech is not a gaurentee you cant just say anything you want well you can but be prepared for a reaction from the mods.....

to bad this storm wont fish would love for it to break the bermuda highs reign over us with dewpoints pushing 75 and temps of 102 this week.

Swimdude · #80 Postby **Swimdude** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 8:42 pm

I'm excited, but for the simple fact that I've been tracking this for over 6 hours today. Whew!

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