Tropical Depression 3=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #81 Postby **senorpepr** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 8:42 pm

Okay... we've had plenty of discussion on what is respectful and what is not respectful in terms of the YAHOOOOOOO-ing.

Let's march forward and focus the attention on the storm.

JTD · #82 Postby **JTD** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 8:42 pm

wxman22 wrote:Tropical Deppresion 3 let's hope this thing doesnt get into the gulf.

That's what concerned me the most and stuck out at me right away. What are the GOM conditions supposed to be like in 4-5 days?

#83 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 8:43 pm

In 80 minutes it should become official.

One thing is for sure, we need to hope it stays far from the Loop Current.

#84 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 8:44 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
Dean4Storms wrote:I guess I called it right a couple of hours ago.

Something about this one has my attention.

I expect slow and gradual strengthening with a more westerly track maybe just moving south of PR.

Well...on Saturday I said give it 48 hours...it's been a little longer than that...and I am a little surprised it has kept up with the convection today and the CUSP closed off...given no bursts over the center. However, anytime you see the cusp...you can usually anticipate it closing off if you have decent convection....like I said on the other thread...a cusp is like the wave approaching shore right before it breaks.

As far as movement, I like a track real close to the PR or just south of there for the official track at 11. If it takes a track a little north of PR...I think it will get trashed. Hispnola will kill it. Track a little south? It has a better chance.

Convection is really deepening south of where the suspected low was positioned, I'm begginning to think the low got re-positioned southward into the deep convection or this system is tilted NW to SE. But seeing the deepening convection would make more sense if the low got re-positioned further south and out of the dry air.

shaggy · #85 Postby **shaggy** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 8:49 pm

were the oo:ooz models run with this being a depression or closed low or still as a wave! if these model runs were intialized with a wave what might the next runs look like? Would love for there to be abreak in ridge around 65W so that it would turn north and fish!

#86 Postby **btangy** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 8:50 pm

I'm begginning to think the low got re-positioned southward into the deep convection or this system is tilted NW to SE.

Systems are usually tilted in the direction of the shear vector. A NW to SE tilt should then be expected.

#87 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 8:50 pm

Geez, this system is looking more organized by the frame. If it keeps this up we could have Chris shortly.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

rockyman · #88 Postby **rockyman** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 8:50 pm

Dr Steve Lyons just said this "could be a tropical depression later tonight or tomorrow"...

caribepr · #89 Postby **caribepr** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 8:51 pm

benny wrote:
caribepr wrote:
HurricaneHunter914 wrote:I think that these hollers are not a big problem to these threads. Its not like we are saying we want this to hit anybody, we're just celebrating the fact that this wave has finally become a TD.

It will save a hell of a lot of hurt and grow you up some. Two not so bad things...YAHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

It is the whole censorship versus free speech concept. YAHOOOO doesn't say much to me. It doesn't say anything. Why is anyone reading this board if they hate storms? I haven't seen anyone make an offensive statement like "Oh I want this to cream so and so". That is bad. FINALLLLY is... nothing. We all need to lighten up IMHO.

Laughing here...pick a debate with merit. This is NOT about free speech versus censorship. This is about awareness outside of one's own chosen area of interest, to the reality of the consequences of that interest in full development and impact. It might be termed *mature thoughtfulness*.
1. I read this board and have done so for three years.
2. I do not hate storms, they are one of Nature's most glorious shows.
3. I have seen and experienced major damage from storms/hurricanes (include death) both personally, as well as for loved ones, as well as for complete strangers that rips me up.
4. I read this board as I live in on a very small island that storms can affect severely even if minor, for good information from well-informed sources, because the information can impact my life and the lives of many I care about, where I live, as well as in the other islands and in the states.
5. I'll lighten up when no storm hurts anybody anywhere. In other words, as to severe weather, I'll never lighten up. Even though in every day life, I am Life Lite.
6. Grow up. Deal with ALL of the realities of your interest.
7. I don't have a humble opinion on this subject. I'm right. PHHHHTTTTTT
8-)

ack! sorry snrpepper! ok, I sure hope this system goes fish! I'm back on track now!

#90 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 8:51 pm

rockyman wrote:Dr Steve Lyons just said this "could be a tropical depression later tonight or tomorrow"...

LOL...leave it to TWC! That's probably because no one at TWC is logged onto S2K right now.

DESTRUCTION5 · #91 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 8:52 pm

ncdowneast wrote:were the oo:ooz models run with this being a depression or closed low or still as a wave! if these model runs were intialized with a wave what might the next runs look like? Would love for there to be abreak in ridge around 65W so that it would turn north and fish!

Relax man..No fish likely here..Soon as it crosses the Antillies its no longer a fish...Besides that Looks like this will be a Mountain Storm..Live or die?

#92 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 8:52 pm

btangy wrote:
I'm begginning to think the low got re-positioned southward into the deep convection or this system is tilted NW to SE.

Systems are usually tilted in the direction of the shear vector. A NW to SE tilt should then be expected.

I know that and that is why I mentioned it, but its not out of the realm of possibilities that a surface low developed in this deep convection.

#93 Postby **shortwave** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 8:52 pm

Whats the movement prediction for the ull in the bahamas?

JTD · #94 Postby **JTD** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 8:52 pm

It's worth pointing out that we're already approaching the C storm in 2006 whereas in the very active year 2004, today marked the formation of the A storm.

Could be a sign of how active 2006 may be.

Javlin · #95 Postby **Javlin** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 8:53 pm

Well it looks to my untrained eye that the TUTT to the N is applying some shear at this point.Once the system gets a little further W in and around the Islands themselves we might see some significant development It's wait and see time.

rockyman · #96 Postby **rockyman** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 8:53 pm

skysummit wrote:
rockyman wrote:Dr Steve Lyons just said this "could be a tropical depression later tonight or tomorrow"...

LOL...leave it to TWC! That's probably because no one at TWC is logged onto S2K right now.

Based on his hesitancy, I think he knows this is TD3...he's just not going to say it until he sees an "official advisory"

shaggy · #97 Postby **shaggy** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 8:55 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
ncdowneast wrote:were the oo:ooz models run with this being a depression or closed low or still as a wave! if these model runs were intialized with a wave what might the next runs look like? Would love for there to be abreak in ridge around 65W so that it would turn north and fish!

Relax man..No fish likely here..Soon as it crosses the Antillies its no longer a fish...Besides that Looks like this will be a Mountain Storm..Live or die?

die if it goes over the mountains but my point is that if the models were intialized as a wave then there may be a more northward model run next time thus missing the islands and hopefully it would then go fishing..

DESTRUCTION5 · #98 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 8:56 pm

rockyman wrote:
skysummit wrote:
rockyman wrote:Dr Steve Lyons just said this "could be a tropical depression later tonight or tomorrow"...

LOL...leave it to TWC! That's probably because no one at TWC is logged onto S2K right now.

Based on his hesitancy, I think he knows this is TD3...he's just not going to say it until he sees an "official advisory"

He Knows he just wants to look like a Genious at 11:00...LOL..Kidding

ConvergenceZone · #99 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 9:00 pm

wxmann_91 wrote:
Where are all the naysayers now? And you know who I mean....

And I don't believe this will attain anything beyond TS status, if it even makes it that far.

I'm surprised you can this with so much confidence. I haven't looked at the models or conditions yet myself, but there's plenty of time for the bad conditions to improve and thus improve the chances of this potential storm intensifying...I can't even count how many times last year many of us didn't think a particular depression or wave would develop, only to wake up the next morning and realize how wrong we were.

I'm not saying it will develop into anything other than a storm, just saying that there's always that chance this time of year.

kenl01 · #100 Postby **kenl01** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 9:02 pm

I don't see that much excitement with this system. Besides, likely it will remain a depression for quite some time as it encounters more shear during the next 96 hours. I don't expect too much out of it. Too many factors working against it.
But I guess it's better than nothing after a quiet season so far.............

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