Tropical Storm Gilma in EPAC

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 2:11 pm

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP952006) ON 20060729 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060729 1800 060730 0600 060730 1800 060731 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.3N 97.1W 10.5N 99.5W 10.8N 102.0W 11.2N 104.6W
BAMM 10.3N 97.1W 10.5N 98.9W 10.6N 101.0W 11.0N 103.4W
LBAR 10.3N 97.1W 10.5N 99.3W 10.8N 101.9W 11.5N 104.9W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 29KTS 35KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 29KTS 35KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060731 1800 060801 1800 060802 1800 060803 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.0N 107.4W 13.9N 112.9W 15.5N 118.4W 16.7N 123.1W
BAMM 11.7N 105.8W 13.2N 111.1W 14.3N 116.7W 15.0N 122.1W
LBAR 12.3N 108.1W 15.0N 114.5W 16.5N 120.0W .0N .0W
SHIP 42KTS 52KTS 58KTS 57KTS
DSHP 42KTS 52KTS 58KTS 57KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.3N LONCUR = 97.1W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 10.1N LONM12 = 95.3W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 10.0N LONM24 = 93.4W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 160NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

The EPAC continues to be active as this new disturbance is slowly organizing.

95E Invest

#2 Postby **AnnularCane** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 2:26 pm

This one might be the most promising of the two, even though it doesn't have as much convection.

By the way, the link doesn't work.

#3 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 2:35 pm

AnnularCane wrote:This one might be the most promising of the two, even though it doesn't have as much convection.

By the way, the link doesn't work.

I dont know what happened to the link I posted but anyway here is the NRL link where you can click 95E.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

#4 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 3:50 pm

This one is the more likely to develop I think.

#5 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 5:55 pm

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

4:00 PM PDT Tropical Weather Outlook.

clfenwi · #6 Postby **clfenwi** » Sun Jul 30, 2006 12:42 pm

This tidbit was at the end of yesterday's 2205Z TWD (and carried into a couple of later ones) and did not bode well for this invest.

THE UPPER FLOW IS MAINLY ELY
OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC AND THUS HAS MADE THE ENVIRONMENT NOT
TOO FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. IN FACT...THE
ELY FLOW INCREASES E OF 110W THROUGH TUE THEN EXPANDS W WED AND
THU AND MAKES THE ENVIRONMENT EVEN MORE HOSTILE.

From today's 10 AM PDT TWO:

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.
ALTHOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED A LITTLE THIS MORNING...
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO
UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

#7 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Jul 30, 2006 5:58 pm

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...
LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS
CHANGED LITTLE TODAY DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

The above is the 4:00 PM PDT Tropical Weather Outlook for this system.

Cyclenall · #8 Postby **Cyclenall** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 6:00 pm

Nobody cares for little old Invest 95E in the EPAC? Guess what, the NHC says this:

NHC wrote:AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME A DEPRESSION TONIGHT OR TOMORROW AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 MPH.

Tonight? I looked very good all day today with these very cold cloud tops forming in the center. It can become a depression very soon if this keeps up.

WindRunner · #9 Postby **WindRunner** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 6:07 pm

Well, doesn't that look like a TD to you? It's quite impressve if you ask me. I wouldn't be surprised one bit to see an upgrade at 11pm EDT, and would be very surprised if this wasn't classified by tomorrow morning when I get up.

HurricaneHunter914 · #10 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 6:18 pm

If that was in the Atlantic then the NHC would have upgraded it already. I think the reason why they are not upgrading is because it isn't much of a hazard to people so what I think the NHC is doing is waiting a little longer for some more organization.

Swimdude · #11 Postby **Swimdude** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 6:45 pm

The EPac continues to kick Atlantic's tail!

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #12 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 7:41 pm

Very much so a depression. Expect it to be upgraded soon.

#13 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 9:07 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E (EP082006) ON 20060801 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060801 0000 060801 1200 060802 0000 060802 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.6N 104.2W 13.5N 106.5W 14.4N 108.7W 15.0N 111.0W
BAMM 12.6N 104.2W 13.9N 105.8W 14.9N 107.5W 15.7N 109.3W
LBAR 12.6N 104.2W 13.3N 106.4W 14.3N 108.8W 15.2N 111.4W
SHIP 30KTS 39KTS 45KTS 49KTS
DSHP 30KTS 39KTS 45KTS 49KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060803 0000 060804 0000 060805 0000 060806 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.3N 113.2W 15.5N 117.9W 16.8N 122.5W 19.0N 125.4W
BAMM 16.1N 111.1W 17.0N 115.3W 19.1N 119.1W 21.6N 121.3W
LBAR 15.6N 114.3W 16.2N 120.3W 17.7N 125.0W 15.6N 128.0W
SHIP 53KTS 55KTS 52KTS 45KTS
DSHP 53KTS 55KTS 52KTS 45KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.6N LONCUR = 104.2W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 12.2N LONM12 = 102.4W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 11.7N LONM24 = 100.9W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 160NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Interesting that tonight two new depressions haved formed although in different basins.And a TD has been upgraded also.

#14 Postby **Andrew92** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 9:09 pm

The depressions and storms are just popping left and right like popcorn!

-Andrew92

#15 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 9:09 pm

ayyayayaya its giving me a headache

all_we_know_is_FALLING · #16 Postby **all_we_know_is_FALLING** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 9:10 pm

Better EPAC storms than Atlantic storms!!!

Swimdude · #17 Postby **Swimdude** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 9:11 pm

Goodness gracious, the Pacific is just poppin' them out today!

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #18 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 9:16 pm

I hope I can say this about this system. But I hope it becomes a hurricane.

WindRunner · #19 Postby **WindRunner** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 9:19 pm

WindRunner wrote:I wouldn't be surprised one bit to see an upgrade at 11pm EDT

Hooray for me . . . though it was probably the most obvious call of the three upgrades they are making at 11pm here.

#20 Postby **AnnularCane** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 9:21 pm

Three upgrades all at once? (Fabio, TD3, and this one) :eek:

Tropical Storm Gilma in EPAC

Tropical Storm Gilma in EPAC

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