Tropical Storm Chris

[wx247]

reports from French buoy 41100 late this afternoon indicated that
there was a weak circulation associated with the tropical wave
approaching the Lesser Antilles. A Quikscat pass at 21z confirmed
that the circulation existed but also indicated that the
circulation was very small. Over the past several hours...the
system has been maintaining enough deep convection to be considered
a tropical depression. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt based
on the Quikscat data and the Dvorak classifications from TAFB and
SAB.
The center of the depression is located near the western edge of the
convective mass...due to westerly shear resulting primarily from
strong easterlies in the lower troposphere. The upper environment
ahead of the depression is complicated...and the evolution of a
large upper-low just east of the Bahamas will be important to the
future of the depression. Some guidance...particularly the
UKMET...suggests that this upper low will keep a strong westerly
shearing flow in place in the path of the depression. Other global
models relax this flow...but it may not matter much...as the system
continues to deal with a very dry air mass. The GFDL model
dissipates the system...as do all of the global models. The SHIPS
model shows a very slow development trend...but perhaps this model
cannot appreciate just how fragile a system the depression is right
now. The official forecast follows the global model guidance that
suggests this cyclone may be short lived.
The initial motion is 295/14. The dominant steering is expected to
be provided by the mid- to lower-tropospheric flow. The depression
is therefore expected to continue generally to the west-northwest
to the south of the subtropical ridge...with some reduction in
forward speed due to a weakness in the ridge associated with the
aforementioned upper-low. The official forecast is in good
agreement with the shallow BAM.

Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 01/0300z 16.6n 59.4w 30 kt
12hr VT 01/1200z 17.4n 61.2w 30 kt
24hr VT 02/0000z 18.3n 63.4w 30 kt
36hr VT 02/1200z 19.2n 65.5w 30 kt
48hr VT 03/0000z 20.1n 67.7w 30 kt
72hr VT 04/0000z 21.5n 71.5w 25 kt...dissipating
96hr VT 05/0000z...dissipated

[wx247]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
1100 PM AST MON JUL 31 2006

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENTS OF FRANCE AND THE NETHERLANDS
ANTILLES HAVE ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLANDS OF
SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. MAARTEN/ST. MARTIN...AND ST. BARTHELEMY.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WITH LITTLE ADVANCE NOTICE COULD BE
REQUIRED FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...
NEVIS...AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.4 WEST OR ABOUT 160
MILES...260 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANTIGUA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...AND
THIS GENERAL HEADING WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE
NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS TOMORROW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS TO
NEAR 6 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...16.6 N...59.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[NCHurricane]

Chuck Copeland
(Enter website here) - Tracking TD#3

[boca]

The ULL east of the Bahamas will eat TD3 for breakfast and will be toast for lunch, but this is the pattern change in the tropics so it will be a ride the rest of the season. According to NWS Miami the ULL will be in the Gulf by Thurs /Fri so I'm keeping a close eye on TD 3 in case it becomes Chris.

[Sean in New Orleans]

This one will more than likely fizzle as it gets to the Bahamas...conditions aren't there for the making....

[fci]

And won't that be ironic since last season the Bahamas were the breeding ground for several storms!

[HurricaneJim]

There's some mighty hot water in the GoM and a real serious loop current eddy just south of NOLA. Very worrisome if it slides in there.


Jim
http://www.myspace.com/hurricanejim
http://www.myspace.com/stormchasetroopers

[TheBurn]

Can anyone let me in on why DELTA?

Tropical Storm DELTA Forecast Discussion

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000
WTNT43 KNHC 010250
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
1100 PM EDT MON JUL 31 2006

REPORTS FROM FRENCH BUOY 41100 LATE THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED THAT
THERE WAS A WEAK CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE
APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES. A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 21Z CONFIRMED
THAT THE CIRCULATION EXISTED BUT ALSO INDICATED THAT THE
CIRCULATION WAS VERY SMALL. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE
SYSTEM HAS BEEN MAINTAINING ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CONSIDERED
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT BASED
ON THE QUIKSCAT DATA AND THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND
SAB.

THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
CONVECTIVE MASS...DUE TO WESTERLY SHEAR RESULTING PRIMARILY FROM
STRONG EASTERLIES IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. THE UPPER ENVIRONMENT
AHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION IS COMPLICATED...AND THE EVOLUTION OF A
LARGE UPPER-LOW JUST EAST OF THE BAHAMAS WILL BE IMPORTANT TO THE
FUTURE OF THE DEPRESSION. SOME GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY THE
UKMET...SUGGESTS THAT THIS UPPER LOW WILL KEEP A STRONG WESTERLY
SHEARING FLOW IN PLACE IN THE PATH OF THE DEPRESSION. OTHER GLOBAL
MODELS RELAX THIS FLOW...BUT IT MAY NOT MATTER MUCH...AS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO DEAL WITH A VERY DRY AIR MASS. THE GFDL MODEL
DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM...AS DO ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE SHIPS
MODEL SHOWS A VERY SLOW DEVELOPMENT TREND...BUT PERHAPS THIS MODEL
CANNOT APPRECIATE JUST HOW FRAGILE A SYSTEM THE DEPRESSION IS RIGHT
NOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE THAT
SUGGESTS THIS CYCLONE MAY BE SHORT LIVED.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/14. THE DOMINANT STEERING IS EXPECTED TO
BE PROVIDED BY THE MID- TO LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. THE DEPRESSION
IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GENERALLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WITH SOME REDUCTION IN
FORWARD SPEED DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHALLOW BAM.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/0300Z 16.6N 59.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 01/1200Z 17.4N 61.2W 30 KT
24HR VT 02/0000Z 18.3N 63.4W 30 KT
36HR VT 02/1200Z 19.2N 65.5W 30 KT
48HR VT 03/0000Z 20.1N 67.7W 30 KT
72HR VT 04/0000Z 21.5N 71.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Grease Monkey]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 010558
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
200 AM AST TUE AUG 01 2006

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED EAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF SABA...
ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. MAARTEN/ST. MARTIN...AND ST. BARTHELEMY. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO LATER THIS MORNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WITH LITTLE ADVANCE NOTICE COULD BE
REQUIRED FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...
NEVIS...AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM AST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE HAD
REFORMED FARTHER EAST NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.8
WEST OR ABOUT 200 MILES...325 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANTIGUA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...AND
THIS GENERAL HEADING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER OR
NEAR THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS TO
NEAR 6 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION.

REPEATING THE 200 AM AST POSITION...16.5 N...58.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[MississippiHurricane]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM CHRIS...
...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED...

AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE RESPECTIVE GOVERNMENTS HAVE ISSUED
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...
ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS... NEVIS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...
ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

AT 5 AM AST...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.2 WEST OR ABOUT
175 MILES...280 KM...EAST OF ANTIGUA.

CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL HEADING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER OR
NEAR THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE TROPICAL STORM THIS AFTERNOON TO PROVIDE A MORE
ACCURATE ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF CHRIS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS TO
NEAR 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH CHRIS.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...16.6 N...59.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM AST.

[Bailey1777]

Well thats that. Alot of people that wrote this off yesterday are going to be suprised when they wake up!

[mobilebay]

He also takes to 55 Knots in 5 days. What a difference a forecaster makes.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0842.shtml

[Weatherfreak000]

Yeah I seriously with the utmost respect completely thought that previous forecast was BS.

[Bailey1777]

It almost seems neglegent on Franklins part with it so close to the Islands to be so dissmissive of what his counterparts obviously are taking more seriously.

[stormtruth]

Another storm for Florida? Seems as if they are going to get four or five storms a year from here on out.

[Bailey1777]

Now lets go from here if we still have any experts on board. We now know we have Chris and at what strength so how is everything coming together in his path. Shear, dry air, other systems, ect.

[mobilebay]

If you don't believe what I've been saying about Franklin and Stewart , read the last sentence of this.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0859.shtml

[Bailey1777]

Your right Mobile he all but called him out by name. Franklins forcast now does not look only poor but ridicoulos.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think Franklin has losted his mind. In if this where to become a hurricane even so.

[Fego]

""THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A REVERSAL OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AFTER 48 HOURS...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS
AND GFDL MODELS.""

I know they are human but... small fights around a matter of public interest?