I don't have the advisory, but hot off the press on TWC, Steve Lyons says there is a new depression in the Atlantic.
-Andrew92
Tropical Depression 3=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
-
StormScanWx
- Category 5
- Posts: 1242
- Joined: Mon Dec 05, 2005 7:53 pm
Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number 1
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on July 31, 2006
reports from French buoy 41100 late this afternoon indicated that
there was a weak circulation associated with the tropical wave
approaching the Lesser Antilles. A Quikscat pass at 21z confirmed
that the circulation existed but also indicated that the
circulation was very small. Over the past several hours...the
system has been maintaining enough deep convection to be considered
a tropical depression. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt based
on the Quikscat data and the Dvorak classifications from TAFB and
SAB.
The center of the depression is located near the western edge of the
convective mass...due to westerly shear resulting primarily from
strong easterlies in the lower troposphere. The upper environment
ahead of the depression is complicated...and the evolution of a
large upper-low just east of the Bahamas will be important to the
future of the depression. Some guidance...particularly the
UKMET...suggests that this upper low will keep a strong westerly
shearing flow in place in the path of the depression. Other global
models relax this flow...but it may not matter much...as the system
continues to deal with a very dry air mass. The GFDL model
dissipates the system...as do all of the global models. The SHIPS
model shows a very slow development trend...but perhaps this model
cannot appreciate just how fragile a system the depression is right
now. The official forecast follows the global model guidance that
suggests this cyclone may be short lived.
The initial motion is 295/14. The dominant steering is expected to
be provided by the mid- to lower-tropospheric flow. The depression
is therefore expected to continue generally to the west-northwest
to the south of the subtropical ridge...with some reduction in
forward speed due to a weakness in the ridge associated with the
aforementioned upper-low. The official forecast is in good
agreement with the shallow BAM.
Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 01/0300z 16.6n 59.4w 30 kt
12hr VT 01/1200z 17.4n 61.2w 30 kt
24hr VT 02/0000z 18.3n 63.4w 30 kt
36hr VT 02/1200z 19.2n 65.5w 30 kt
48hr VT 03/0000z 20.1n 67.7w 30 kt
72hr VT 04/0000z 21.5n 71.5w 25 kt...dissipating
96hr VT 05/0000z...dissipated
$$
forecaster Franklin
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on July 31, 2006
reports from French buoy 41100 late this afternoon indicated that
there was a weak circulation associated with the tropical wave
approaching the Lesser Antilles. A Quikscat pass at 21z confirmed
that the circulation existed but also indicated that the
circulation was very small. Over the past several hours...the
system has been maintaining enough deep convection to be considered
a tropical depression. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt based
on the Quikscat data and the Dvorak classifications from TAFB and
SAB.
The center of the depression is located near the western edge of the
convective mass...due to westerly shear resulting primarily from
strong easterlies in the lower troposphere. The upper environment
ahead of the depression is complicated...and the evolution of a
large upper-low just east of the Bahamas will be important to the
future of the depression. Some guidance...particularly the
UKMET...suggests that this upper low will keep a strong westerly
shearing flow in place in the path of the depression. Other global
models relax this flow...but it may not matter much...as the system
continues to deal with a very dry air mass. The GFDL model
dissipates the system...as do all of the global models. The SHIPS
model shows a very slow development trend...but perhaps this model
cannot appreciate just how fragile a system the depression is right
now. The official forecast follows the global model guidance that
suggests this cyclone may be short lived.
The initial motion is 295/14. The dominant steering is expected to
be provided by the mid- to lower-tropospheric flow. The depression
is therefore expected to continue generally to the west-northwest
to the south of the subtropical ridge...with some reduction in
forward speed due to a weakness in the ridge associated with the
aforementioned upper-low. The official forecast is in good
agreement with the shallow BAM.
Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 01/0300z 16.6n 59.4w 30 kt
12hr VT 01/1200z 17.4n 61.2w 30 kt
24hr VT 02/0000z 18.3n 63.4w 30 kt
36hr VT 02/1200z 19.2n 65.5w 30 kt
48hr VT 03/0000z 20.1n 67.7w 30 kt
72hr VT 04/0000z 21.5n 71.5w 25 kt...dissipating
96hr VT 05/0000z...dissipated
$$
forecaster Franklin
0 likes
-
max
HurricaneJim wrote:Well, if there's charters out, I'd be getting on a radio and telling them they got 24hrs to find a hole and tie up.
In any case, it the models are reading it right, it will slide past y'all and into the GoM. Water temp there's got me worried. I'm praying not NOLA or MS again...
Jim
I hope not but time will tell. The waiting game can take forever but it can be fun to see if it does something crazy like a loop or something.
I wonder why no Hurricanes have ever done any crazy loops like Betsy in a while?
When your talking about the charters who are you talking about please?
0 likes
-
ThunderMate
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 215
- Joined: Mon Jul 11, 2005 10:18 am
- Location: Virginia Beach, Virginia
- Contact:
-
brunota2003
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9476
- Age: 34
- Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:56 pm
- Location: Stanton, KY...formerly Havelock, NC
- Contact:
-
Extremeweatherguy
- Category 5
- Posts: 11095
- Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
- Location: Florida
-
WindRunner
- Category 5
- Posts: 5806
- Age: 34
- Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
- Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
- Contact:
-
johngaltfla
- Category 5
- Posts: 2069
- Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 9:17 pm
- Location: Sarasota County, FL
- Contact:
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145347
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
There haved not been advisories for Fabio,nor TD 8-E at EPAC.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
tomboudreau
- Category 5
- Posts: 1869
- Age: 48
- Joined: Tue Feb 18, 2003 6:07 pm
- Location: Carnegie, PA
- Contact:
-
Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 38090
- Age: 36
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
1100 PM AST MON JUL 31 2006
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENTS OF FRANCE AND THE NETHERLANDS
ANTILLES HAVE ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLANDS OF
SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. MAARTEN/ST. MARTIN...AND ST. BARTHELEMY.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WITH LITTLE ADVANCE NOTICE COULD BE
REQUIRED FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...
NEVIS...AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.4 WEST OR ABOUT 160
MILES...260 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANTIGUA.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...AND
THIS GENERAL HEADING WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE
NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS TOMORROW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS TO
NEAR 6 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...16.6 N...59.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
1100 PM AST MON JUL 31 2006
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENTS OF FRANCE AND THE NETHERLANDS
ANTILLES HAVE ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLANDS OF
SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. MAARTEN/ST. MARTIN...AND ST. BARTHELEMY.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WITH LITTLE ADVANCE NOTICE COULD BE
REQUIRED FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...
NEVIS...AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.4 WEST OR ABOUT 160
MILES...260 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANTIGUA.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...AND
THIS GENERAL HEADING WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE
NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS TOMORROW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS TO
NEAR 6 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...16.6 N...59.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
0 likes
#neversummer
-
WindRunner
- Category 5
- Posts: 5806
- Age: 34
- Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
- Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
- Contact:
Got it . . . sorry for the format EDIT: fixed the format, and I see Brent got it the same time it came out FTP . . .
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
1100 PM EDT MON JUL 31 2006
REPORTS FROM FRENCH BUOY 41100 LATE THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED THAT
THERE WAS A WEAK CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE
APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES. A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 21Z CONFIRMED
THAT THE CIRCULATION EXISTED BUT ALSO INDICATED THAT THE
CIRCULATION WAS VERY SMALL. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE
SYSTEM HAS BEEN MAINTAINING ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CONSIDERED
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT BASED
ON THE QUIKSCAT DATA AND THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND
SAB.
THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
CONVECTIVE MASS...DUE TO WESTERLY SHEAR RESULTING PRIMARILY FROM
STRONG EASTERLIES IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. THE UPPER ENVIRONMENT
AHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION IS COMPLICATED...AND THE EVOLUTION OF A
LARGE UPPER-LOW JUST EAST OF THE BAHAMAS WILL BE IMPORTANT TO THE
FUTURE OF THE DEPRESSION. SOME GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY THE
UKMET...SUGGESTS THAT THIS UPPER LOW WILL KEEP A STRONG WESTERLY
SHEARING FLOW IN PLACE IN THE PATH OF THE DEPRESSION. OTHER GLOBAL
MODELS RELAX THIS FLOW...BUT IT MAY NOT MATTER MUCH...AS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO DEAL WITH A VERY DRY AIR MASS. THE GFDL MODEL
DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM...AS DO ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE SHIPS
MODEL SHOWS A VERY SLOW DEVELOPMENT TREND...BUT PERHAPS THIS MODEL
CANNOT APPRECIATE JUST HOW FRAGILE A SYSTEM THE DEPRESSION IS RIGHT
NOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE THAT
SUGGESTS THIS CYCLONE MAY BE SHORT LIVED.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/14. THE DOMINANT STEERING IS EXPECTED TO
BE PROVIDED BY THE MID- TO LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. THE DEPRESSION
IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GENERALLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WITH SOME REDUCTION IN
FORWARD SPEED DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHALLOW BAM.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/0300Z 16.6N 59.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 01/1200Z 17.4N 61.2W 30 KT
24HR VT 02/0000Z 18.3N 63.4W 30 KT
36HR VT 02/1200Z 19.2N 65.5W 30 KT
48HR VT 03/0000Z 20.1N 67.7W 30 KT
72HR VT 04/0000Z 21.5N 71.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
1100 PM EDT MON JUL 31 2006
REPORTS FROM FRENCH BUOY 41100 LATE THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED THAT
THERE WAS A WEAK CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE
APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES. A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 21Z CONFIRMED
THAT THE CIRCULATION EXISTED BUT ALSO INDICATED THAT THE
CIRCULATION WAS VERY SMALL. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE
SYSTEM HAS BEEN MAINTAINING ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CONSIDERED
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT BASED
ON THE QUIKSCAT DATA AND THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND
SAB.
THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
CONVECTIVE MASS...DUE TO WESTERLY SHEAR RESULTING PRIMARILY FROM
STRONG EASTERLIES IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. THE UPPER ENVIRONMENT
AHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION IS COMPLICATED...AND THE EVOLUTION OF A
LARGE UPPER-LOW JUST EAST OF THE BAHAMAS WILL BE IMPORTANT TO THE
FUTURE OF THE DEPRESSION. SOME GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY THE
UKMET...SUGGESTS THAT THIS UPPER LOW WILL KEEP A STRONG WESTERLY
SHEARING FLOW IN PLACE IN THE PATH OF THE DEPRESSION. OTHER GLOBAL
MODELS RELAX THIS FLOW...BUT IT MAY NOT MATTER MUCH...AS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO DEAL WITH A VERY DRY AIR MASS. THE GFDL MODEL
DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM...AS DO ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE SHIPS
MODEL SHOWS A VERY SLOW DEVELOPMENT TREND...BUT PERHAPS THIS MODEL
CANNOT APPRECIATE JUST HOW FRAGILE A SYSTEM THE DEPRESSION IS RIGHT
NOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE THAT
SUGGESTS THIS CYCLONE MAY BE SHORT LIVED.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/14. THE DOMINANT STEERING IS EXPECTED TO
BE PROVIDED BY THE MID- TO LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. THE DEPRESSION
IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GENERALLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WITH SOME REDUCTION IN
FORWARD SPEED DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHALLOW BAM.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/0300Z 16.6N 59.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 01/1200Z 17.4N 61.2W 30 KT
24HR VT 02/0000Z 18.3N 63.4W 30 KT
36HR VT 02/1200Z 19.2N 65.5W 30 KT
48HR VT 03/0000Z 20.1N 67.7W 30 KT
72HR VT 04/0000Z 21.5N 71.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
Last edited by WindRunner on Mon Jul 31, 2006 9:56 pm, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes
-
Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 38090
- Age: 36
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
ROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
0300 UTC TUE AUG 01 2006
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENTS OF FRANCE AND THE NETHERLANDS
ANTILLES HAVE ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLANDS OF
SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. MAARTEN/ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WITH LITTLE ADVANCE NOTICE COULD BE
REQUIRED FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...
NEVIS...AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 59.4W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 59.4W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 58.9W
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 17.4N 61.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 18.3N 63.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 19.2N 65.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 20.1N 67.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.5N 71.5W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 59.4W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
0300 UTC TUE AUG 01 2006
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENTS OF FRANCE AND THE NETHERLANDS
ANTILLES HAVE ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLANDS OF
SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. MAARTEN/ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WITH LITTLE ADVANCE NOTICE COULD BE
REQUIRED FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...
NEVIS...AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 59.4W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 59.4W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 58.9W
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 17.4N 61.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 18.3N 63.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 19.2N 65.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 20.1N 67.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.5N 71.5W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 59.4W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
0 likes
#neversummer
-
Josephine96
