Tropical Depression 3=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

YouTube · #241 Postby **hurricanetrack** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 10:16 pm

Who ah! An August cyclone. Boy is it tiny. We have to worry about them tiny ones- when they make it through the gauntlet, they can be pretty ugly on the other side. Andrew, Labor Day- those were all tiny hurricanes in comparison. The deck is certainly stacked against TD 3 this time around. Franklin is a good forecaster- we shall see if he nails this one right out of the gate. Since the globals are against TD 3, I will lean towards his forecast coming to complete fruition. Makes sense to me.

boca · #242 Postby **boca** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 10:17 pm

The ULL east of the Bahamas will eat TD3 for breakfast and will be toast for lunch, but this is the pattern change in the tropics so it will be a ride the rest of the season. According to NWS Miami the ULL will be in the Gulf by Thurs /Fri so I'm keeping a close eye on TD 3 in case it becomes Chris.

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #243 Postby **senorpepr** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 10:17 pm

Rieyeuxs wrote:
senorpepr wrote:
Rieyeuxs wrote:PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT33 AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3. FORECAST/ADVISORIES
ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCMAT3.

They're where? Translation please!

That portion isn't intended for the general public. Check http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ for advisories.

That's where I got the above statement. That's why I'm confused.

Let me clarify. That part you posted is directed for meteorologists. Don't worry about it.

#244 Postby **NDG** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 10:18 pm

TS Zack wrote:Shearing from that ULL will not occur for another 36hrs. That is plenty enough time to get some organization into a Tropical Storm. Maybe some weakening after 36hrs but GFS shows this low weakening by 72hrs out.

I totally agree with you there, why would Franklin put more stock into the UKMET's forecast of keeping the ULL stronger than the rest of the models, also, remember that most global models don't do well with small tropical cyclones.

#245 Postby **GeneratorPower** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 10:19 pm

hurricanetrack wrote:Who ah! An August cyclone. Boy is it tiny. We have to worry about them tiny ones- when they make it through the gauntlet, they can be pretty ugly on the other side. Andrew, Labor Day- those were all tiny hurricanes in comparison. The deck is certainly stacked against TD 3 this time around. Franklin is a good forecaster- we shall see if he nails this one right out of the gate. Since the globals are against TD 3, I will lean towards his forecast coming to complete fruition. Makes sense to me.

Mark, you better top-off the Tahoe's gas tank just in case. ;-)

#246 Postby **MGC** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 10:19 pm

The depression will be lucky to survive a couple of days. There are many factors working against it, small circulation size, shear, dry air to name a few. I am really surprised the NHC upgraded it. Perhaps the folks over at the NHC are still giddy about the Presidents visit today????.....MGC

#247 Postby **deltadog03** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 10:19 pm

hmmm....nhc...im not so sure this dissapates that quick..

mempho · #248 Postby **mempho** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 10:19 pm

Andrew92 wrote:I'm not holding my breath too much on this thing. As long as all global models dissipate the system, and only SHIPS intensifies it (hardly trust that model anyway), I have no problem saying it will likely not become Chris until I see proof of otherwise. The upper low will shear it to death and dry air will aid in the cause, in my opinion.

-Andrew92

Why are the wind probabilities (on the NHC advisory package) so high then? >50% seems high when the discussion boldly calls for disappation.

#249 Postby **Andrew92** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 10:20 pm

Models aside, maybe there's little shear for 36 hours. The thing that should keep this depression from becoming Chris is the dry air. Maybe the dry air won't dissipate the system per se, but it very well could prevent it from intensifying as well. Then, the shear will kick in and kill the depression. That's my thinking, right or wrong.

-Andrew92

Grease Monkey · #250 Postby **Grease Monkey** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 10:21 pm

MGC wrote:The depression will be lucky to survive a couple of days. There are many factors working against it, small circulation size, shear, dry air to name a few. I am really surprised the NHC upgraded it. Perhaps the folks over at the NHC are still giddy about the Presidents visit today????.....MGC

Yeah, but isn't a small circulation an advantage also because it can more easily intensify like when wilma reached her peak?

#251 Postby **bvigal** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 10:24 pm

Can someone give me the direct link to the watch/warning and probability maps, the jpgs, not their huge page of all those maps?
Not http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... shtml?5day, just the jpg file???????????

#252 Postby **Bailey1777** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 10:24 pm

When will the NHC put out it's 5 day cone?

#253 Postby **Bailey1777** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 10:26 pm

Nevermind I see it.

mempho · #254 Postby **mempho** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 10:26 pm

Bailey1777 wrote:When will the NHC put out it's 5 day cone?

It's out now.

Extremeweatherguy · #255 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 10:26 pm

one thing to think about: How often is the NHC's initial forecast 100% correct? 90%? 80%? Thought so...

I wouldn't say this will not become Chris based on just one (the first) forecast.

#256 Postby **Bailey1777** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 10:30 pm

AFM if you are still around what is your thoughts on what you see. Everybody is so caught up in this advisory nobody is talking about how it looks now. Better or worse?

HouTXmetro · #257 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 10:30 pm

Question, TD 3 is expected to stay weak. Does this increase the chances of it being a Gulf Threat? In that case wouldn't the conditions become much more favorable for rapid development?

Jam151 · #258 Postby **Jam151** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 10:31 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
Rainband wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:Looks like they are forecasting this to die out in 96-120 hrs., but until I see it; I don't believe it. I have seen a similar forecast be wrong many times in the past.
When. I have never seen all the models dissipate a system and it not happen??
Consider this: The same models that all kill it now did not do so this morning. I will wait for another model run or two before buying into their new ideas.

You make this upgrade sound like it made it to hurricane status. if this doesnt develop much more than the model consensus is more correct than not.

Scorpion · #259 Postby **Scorpion** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 10:31 pm

MGC wrote:The depression will be lucky to survive a couple of days. There are many factors working against it, small circulation size, shear, dry air to name a few. I am really surprised the NHC upgraded it. Perhaps the folks over at the NHC are still giddy about the Presidents visit today????.....MGC

This was said many times for 99L. "It will never become a TD". Well look it has. It has overcome a much worse environment. IMO we will see at least a TS out of this.

chadtm80 · #260 Postby **chadtm80** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 10:32 pm

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=87546

Tropical Depression 3=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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