Tropical Depression 3=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[wxmann_91]

one thing to think about: How often is the NHC's initial forecast 100% correct? 90%? 80%? Thought so...

I wouldn't say this will not become Chris based on just one (the first) forecast.

Their right much of the time, and usually when they're wrong it's one the high side.

Nevertheless, Franklin is a conservative forecaster, although I do believe that TD 3 isn't strengthening much over the next few days.

[Andrew92]

I'm not holding my breath too much on this thing. As long as all global models dissipate the system, and only SHIPS intensifies it (hardly trust that model anyway), I have no problem saying it will likely not become Chris until I see proof of otherwise. The upper low will shear it to death and dry air will aid in the cause, in my opinion.

-Andrew92

Why are the wind probabilities (on the NHC advisory package) so high then? >50% seems high when the discussion boldly calls for disappation.

It's not greater than 50% percent likely, it's exactly 50%. Yes, that means it has a shot of becoming a tropical storm. My thinking is that they are giving this depression a zero percent chance of becoming a hurricane (the <2% under there) and are allowing for the SHIPS model to possibly be correct. However, there is also a 45% percent chance it could not strengthen, along with a 5% chance it could dissipate. That means there is just as good a chance for it to become a storm as it is to either stay a depression or weaken.

And even if this does become Chris (which I don't think it will), it will probably be no greater than the 2000 version of Chris.

-Andrew92

[Recurve]

one thing to think about: How often is the NHC's initial forecast 100% correct? 90%? 80%? Thought so...

I wouldn't say this will not become Chris based on just one (the first) forecast.

But we can hope. Where this thing is, and with a projected path north of Hispanola, I do not want to see any development.
On NBC 6 in Miami, meteorologist said he wouldn't worry about it at this time, echoing the NHC forcast for a low to continue but no organization even to TS strength.

[Grease Monkey]

The depression will be lucky to survive a couple of days. There are many factors working against it, small circulation size, shear, dry air to name a few. I am really surprised the NHC upgraded it. Perhaps the folks over at the NHC are still giddy about the Presidents visit today????.....MGC

This was said many times for 99L. "It will never become a TD". Well look it has. It has overcome a much worse environment. IMO we will see at least a TS out of this.

...and again lets not forget katrina, the little engine that shouldn't have been.

[Rainband]

The NHC has done excellent in the past and I amazed how many people can't see the forest through the trees here. None of the Models develop this and I see no reason what so ever to doubt them. I will eat the biggest plate of crow if this becomes a threat. As for the first forecast. I guess time will tell.

[boca]

I think even if TD 3 didn't make it S FL should feel the effects of a tropical wave(TD3)hopefully giving us much needed rain, if it does degenerate.

[Grease Monkey]

It looks like it will probbaly head for the florida keys IMO.

[Scorpion]

I think even if TD 3 didn't make it S FL should feel the effects of a tropical wave(TD3)hopefully giving us much needed rain, if it does degenerate.

We don't need the rain. We're quite average.

[HouTXmetro]

OK, none of the models develop it now, but couldn't it develop let's say 5 or 6 days from now when it possibly is entering the Gulf?

[Rainband]

The depression will be lucky to survive a couple of days. There are many factors working against it, small circulation size, shear, dry air to name a few. I am really surprised the NHC upgraded it. Perhaps the folks over at the NHC are still giddy about the Presidents visit today????.....MGC

This was said many times for 99L. "It will never become a TD". Well look it has. It has overcome a much worse environment. IMO we will see at least a TS out of this.

...and again lets not forget katrina, the little engine that shouldn't have been.

With all due respect, comparing this to Katrina is like comparing my cable bill to the National deficit.

[ConvergenceZone]

pretty wild how the posting on this thread almost comes to a dead stop as soon as they mention that this system won't develop and will dissipate, hehe.... I was hoping it would develop myself, but of course that it would go out to sea after it developed.

Oh well, there is the storm that just came off Africa, guess that one's next.

[Grease Monkey]

The depression will be lucky to survive a couple of days. There are many factors working against it, small circulation size, shear, dry air to name a few. I am really surprised the NHC upgraded it. Perhaps the folks over at the NHC are still giddy about the Presidents visit today????.....MGC

This was said many times for 99L. "It will never become a TD". Well look it has. It has overcome a much worse environment. IMO we will see at least a TS out of this.

...and again lets not forget katrina, the little engine that shouldn't have been.

With all due respect, comparing this to Katrina is like comparing my cable bill to the National deficit.

I'm not sure if you think I'm saying it will be as intense as Katrina. All I'm saying is they can be wrong again about it not becoming at least a TS.

[Andrew92]

The NHC has done excellent in the past and I amazed how many people can't see the forest through the trees here. None of the Models develop this and I see no reason what so ever to doubt them. I will eat the biggest plate of crow if this becomes a threat. As for the first forecast. I guess time will tell.

I agree, and if anyone questions if dry air won't weaken it, remember Isabel in '03? That's right, she went down from a C5 to a C2 due primarily to dry air (there were other factors, but dry air was the biggie). Others have fallen prey to dry air as well, and if you think this depression doesn't have dry air in front of it, have a look at this:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/wv.jpg

First off, it isn't very well organized, despite thunderstorms trying to form near the center. But that air looks so dry I just about choked even looking at it. THEN the shear comes in while the dry air holds in check. I know I'm sounding like a broken record, but that's my opinion and I stand by it.

Go ahead, get the crow started if I'm wrong with the models. Wouldn't be the first time, either. Oh, and I'll have it deep-fried if I must.

-Andrew92

[canetracker]

Can someone give me the direct link to the watch/warning and probability maps, the jpgs, not their huge page of all those maps?
Not http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... shtml?5day, just the jpg file???????????

5 day warning:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT03/refresh/AL0306W5_sm2+gif/031116W_sm.gif
3 day warning:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT03/refresh/AL0306W_sm2+gif/031115W_sm.gif
Tropical Storm Force Wind Speed Probabilities - 120 Hours:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT03/refresh/AL0306_PROB34_F120_sm2+gif/031115.gif

All that you have to do is right click on the graphic, click properties and copy and paste the url into your address bar. Next save it in favorites.
Hope this helps.

[HouTXmetro]

well remember last year when every system defied climatology and the odds?

[curtadams]

Can someone give me the direct link to the watch/warning and probability maps, the jpgs, not their huge page of all those maps?
Not http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... shtml?5day, just the jpg file???????????

Can you get it from http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ ? That seems to only have thumbs.
Here are some direct links, but I think they're tied to this particular advisory
small graph of 3day cone
large graph graph of 3day cone
Trop storm wind probs
50-kt wind probs (currently 0 everywhere)

[boca]

Scorpion rainfall is 8 to 10 inches below average down here. EX PBI, MIA, FT Laud airports.

[Derek Ortt]

the key here (in the next few hours) is does this hit as a strom before hitting the islands. The long term can wait, though I am cautious on the dissipaton as some research I am about to submot to MWR shows that you need strong shear to get dry air into the core

[GeneratorPower]

Those of us on a diet can't eat crow. We have to eat "I-Can't-Believe-It's-Not-Crow".

[Bailey1777]

Everyone is talking about down the road but what do you think about it currently compared to earlier?