Tropical Storm Chris

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

A big blow up of convection has formed right over the center...Still there is shear but this system looks to be organized...Would not be suprized to see quit the storm north of Dr/Hati if it go's north.

[jlauderdal]

If you don't believe what I've been saying about Franklin and Stewart , read the last sentence of this.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0859.shtml

This is an unusual situation but don't forget these people aren't operating solo over at NHC. There is plenty of input from others at NHC when these discos are written.

[Scorpion]

Well I am still awake. Never went to sleep. Out all night and I come back to TS Chris. 60 mph in the Bahamas before Florida. IMO with everything that occured last year and 2004 Floridia media is gonna be all over this.

[mobilebay]

""THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A REVERSAL OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AFTER 48 HOURS...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS
AND GFDL MODELS.""

I know they are human but... small fights around a matter of public interest?

What I'm saying is this has been going on for several days now on the TWO's. On Mike Watkins show one night they admitted that they sometimes have in house battles over storms. One for instance was the renaming of Ivan when it re-entered the GOM! You can just tell in there writing that they did not agree on this system. That's all I'm saying.

[Bailey1777]

I believe that, I really do but you've got to admit those were apples to oranges forcast in a matter of hours.

[caneman]

""THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A REVERSAL OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AFTER 48 HOURS...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS
AND GFDL MODELS.""

I know they are human but... small fights around a matter of public interest?

I see nothing wrong with it. It calls people out and makes them perform at their best. I'm sure Stewart had to have it signed off on. YOu have have to do what you think is right thing even though it may be displeasing to some. I admire him.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

There maybe a real fight soon...

[Bailey1777]

Well let's just get back to Chris. Some of my favorite posters should be up soon and we can get some real expert input.

[Stratosphere747]

Read Franklins disco again...

[mobilebay]

Stewarts Forecast is very similar to Derek Ortts. He released his forecast the same time franklin did. Good job Derek.

[JtSmarts]

Stewarts Forecast is very similar to Derek Ortts. He released his forecast the same time franklin did. Good job Derek.

Derek is the man!!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The latest satellite shows this system is becoming much better organized....A big blow up of convection has blow up....With the first signs of a CDO forming over the center...A banding like feature is forming over the southern side. The shear looks to be lessing slowly...I expect if this keeps up this will be 45 knots by 5pm.

[Bailey1777]

Nicely done Derek!

[mobilebay]

The latest satellite shows this system is becoming much better organized....A big blow up of convection has blow up....With the first signs of a CDO forming over the center...A banding like feature is forming over the southern side. The shear looks to be lessing slowly...I expect if this keeps up this will be 45 knots by 5pm.

Well we will have recon by then. Then we will know for sure.

[Bailey1777]

How early will recon get in there?

[caneman]

The latest satellite shows this system is becoming much better organized....A big blow up of convection has blow up....With the first signs of a CDO forming over the center...A banding like feature is forming over the southern side. The shear looks to be lessing slowly...I expect if this keeps up this will be 45 knots by 5pm.

Looks to me` like the ULL is filling in and weakening too and with the expected movement ofthe ULL towards the gulf in 72 hours this isn't a good sign. Anybody wanna buy some property here in Florida? How long will it be before they stop writing insurance here?

[robbielyn]

For this to strengthen, the two lows to the ne an nw will weaken and move in tandem to one another, and chris must stay exactly between the two for the sheer to lessen thus allowing a slow strengthening. That is so cool. Lets see if this pans out according to the nhc 5am discussion.

[SWFLA_CANE]

Any chance of rapid intensification in the coming days?

[Deenac813]

The latest satellite shows this system is becoming much better organized....A big blow up of convection has blow up....With the first signs of a CDO forming over the center...A banding like feature is forming over the southern side. The shear looks to be lessing slowly...I expect if this keeps up this will be 45 knots by 5pm.

Looks to me` like the ULL is filling in and weakening too and with the expected movement ofthe ULL towards the gulf in 72 hours this isn't a good sign. Anybody wanna buy some property here in Florida? How long will it be before they stop writing insurance here?

Already happened, 8 storms in 2 years, 3 companies going bankrupt & all we have is Citizens Property. Welcome to paradise!!

[ronjon]

Any chance of rapid intensification in the coming days?

Absolutely. The science of forcasting strength is not very good. We could very well have a hurricane within the next 5 days. 5 AM disc alludes to this unknown.

THE MAIN DILEMMA IS JUST HOW STRONG CHRIS
WILL BECOME. CHRIS IS FORECAST TO PASS BETWEEN TWO MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOWS CURRENTLY LOCATED EAST OF THE BAHAMAS AND NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE TWO LOWS AND THEN MOVE THEM IN TANDEM WESTWARD AFTER 72 HOURS... WITH CHRIS LIKELY WEDGED IN BETWEEN. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN WOULD NORMALLY FAVOR A LOW SHEAR PATTERN THAT WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR MORE STRENGTHENING
THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST...