Tropical Storm Chris

[Nimbus]

This morning the circulation looks elongated, until a clear LLC can be established it is difficult to initialize in the models.

If Chris remains weak it may track more west.

The surface pressures are still quite high in Quadaloupe but with the storm slowing and convection increasing it looks like some heavy rain is on the way there and for the islands to the north.

[KatDaddy]

Wxman57, you should be happy. Finally Chris will be a decent TS and perhaps even more. I hope it a SE US storm and not a GOM storm. We had enough last year.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Well if Chris gets stronger there are indications that it will have a more Northerly component to it's track in the long term, even the NHC says so, let us all hope if it does indeed become a strong system that it goes far enough North to get into a weakness in the Ridge and is pushed harmlessly out to sea.

[Thunder44]

Radar out of Martininque shows the center open on the north side.

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... SAIC2.html

[cycloneye]

KNHC 011149
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
800 AM AST TUE AUG 01 2006

...CHRIS HEADED TOWARD THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS... NEVIS...SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.8 WEST OR ABOUT
135 MILES...215 KM...EAST OF ANTIGUA.

CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL HEADING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER OR
NEAR THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE TROPICAL STORM THIS AFTERNOON TO PROVIDE A MORE
ACCURATE ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF CHRIS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS TO
NEAR 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH CHRIS.

REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...16.8 N...59.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST.

[AJC3]

Radar out of Martininque shows the center open on the north side.

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... SAIC2.html

Keep in mind that you often see this type of appearance on radar due to beam height considerations, and more importantly, attenuation of the radar beam. In other words, so much energy from the radar signal is scattered as the beam penetrates the near side of the storm that the return signal is anomalously weak by the time it passes through the other side of the storm.

That havng been said, based on satellite presentation, due to continued, albeit weakening NW shear, the north side of the system is indeed likely to be convectively weaker than other quadrants of the storm.

[rockyman]

Well if Chris gets stronger there are indications that it will have a more Northerly component to it's track in the long term, even the NHC says so, let us all hope if it does indeed become a strong system that it goes far enough North to get into a weakness in the Ridge and is pushed harmlessly out to sea.

Derek said in his forecast that a stronger storm would get steered further west (high pressure is actually stronger at the mid-levels)

[Derek Ortt]

A strnger storm will move more west here.

One CANNOT go by the rule that weaker means west 100% of the time

[Eyewall]

YES a storm!!!!! gotta love em' hopefully everyone will prepare and nobody will get hurt...

[Andrew92]

*sigh* OK people, I'll have my crow deep-fried. Never thought I'd see Chris when I woke up this morning.

-Andrew92

[storms in NC]

*sigh* OK people, I'll have my crow deep-fried. Never thought I'd see Chris when I woke up this morning.

-Andrew92

Well I really didn't either. And by the wayI can see alot better today. Still fuzzy but better.

I hope every one on the Islands will be okay. I hope that it goes just to the east of you all and die now. But we will be here for you all that do live there.

[JonathanBelles]

000
WTNT83 KNHC 010907
TCVAT3

CHRIS WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
500 AM AST TUE AUG 1 2006

.TROPICAL STORM CHRIS

PRC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-
031-033-035-037-039-041-043-045-047-049-051-053-054-055-057-059-
061-063-065-067-069-071-073-075-077-079-081-083-085-087-089-091-
093-095-097-099-101-103-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-121-123-
125-127-129-131-133-135-137-139-141-143-145-147-149-151-153-
VIC010-020-030-011500-
/E.NEW.KNHC.TR.A.1003.060801T0900Z-000000T0000Z/
500 AM AST TUE AUG 1 2006

PUERTO-RICO-ALL 18.20N 66.45W
VIRGIN-IS.-(U.S.) 18.05N 64.80W

$$

ATTN...WFO...SJU...

WHAT???

[M_0331]

Disclaimer; only one's words, not official in any sense, Do not
react to or act on:

This has the look and possible path of a Floyd 1999. hopefully not.
It does not need to interact with gulf stream. The motion between
two ULL's & offshore high could thread it off Florida's coast and
up the SE coast. I know Florida and GOM has been beat up in
last few years but SE coast ha seen it's share of storms.

Don't beat me up over this post!!!!

Eddie

[cycloneye]

01/1145 UTC 17.4N 59.7W T2.5/2.5 CHRIS -- Atlantic Ocean

[terstorm1012]

wow...i dreamed Chris would pop up last night........

i'll be back later after I check out some upper air charts.

[weatherwoman132]

here we goooo.

[cheezyWXguy]

last night i dreamed that the ULL collapsed and chris got named...
but wow, insted of dissipated in 96hrs, its at 55kts! what a change!

[Tampa_God]

This will probably go south of Florida with a Texas landfall. You have a High over Northern Florida and 2 ULL around the Bahamas. There will be some shear with this, but I think nothing will happen.

[cheezyWXguy]

Tampa, that was what i was thinking too...and its not cause im in texas(wishcasting-which im not)

[skysummit]

How strong will the ridge be??? How much shear will there be??? Will Chris go directly over the mountains of Hispanola??? Too many questions to answer.