Tropical Storm Fabio in EPAC

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 010848
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072006
200 AM PDT TUE AUG 01 2006

FABIO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 45 KT FROM TAFB
AND 35 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
WILL REMAIN 35 KT. FOR THE FIRST 24 TO 48 HOURS...FABIO IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE SHIPS MODEL
INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE ENTERING A DRIER MID LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT WITH INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR. MOST OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST THAT FABIO COULD WEAKEN OR EVEN DISSIPATE SOONER
THAN INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL CLOSELY THROUGH 48 HOURS...BUT
INDICATES A FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING LATER IN THE FORECAST...
SHOWING SOME RESPECT FOR THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 285/12. FABIO IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN ON A STEADY WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING SOUTH OF A
STRONG MID TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE. AS THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY WEAKENS
LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...IT WILL LIKELY BE STEERED MORE
WESTWARD AS INDICATED BY THE GFDL AND NOGAPS MODELS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO AND IS CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/0900Z 14.8N 124.6W 35 KT
12HR VT 01/1800Z 15.2N 126.4W 40 KT
24HR VT 02/0600Z 15.7N 129.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 02/1800Z 16.2N 131.7W 45 KT
48HR VT 03/0600Z 16.5N 134.0W 45 KT
72HR VT 04/0600Z 16.5N 138.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 05/0600Z 16.5N 143.0W 30 KT
120HR VT 06/0600Z 16.5N 148.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART

[cycloneye]

WTPZ42 KNHC 011434
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072006
800 AM PDT TUE AUG 01 2006

CONVECTIVE CURVED BANDING HAS INCREASED IN EXTENT OVER THE WESTERN
HALF THIS MORNING...WITH DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ALL
CHIMING IN AT 45 KT. CONSEQUENTLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE
BUMPED UP TO 45 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ONLY SLIGHTLY
INCREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...BUT THE PHILOSOPHY REMAINS
THE SAME...WITH A STABLE RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS AND INCREASED
VERTICAL SHEAR BEYOND DAY 3 LIKELY TO DECREASE THE SYSTEM TO A
REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 280/11....WITH A GENERAL WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITHIN THE SOUTH PERIPHERY OF A
STRONG MID TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH. BEYOND DAY 3...THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD TURN MORE WESTWARD...INFLUENCED BY THE LOW
LAYER EASTERLY FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS BASED ON
THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/1500Z 15.0N 125.7W 45 KT
12HR VT 02/0000Z 15.3N 127.6W 50 KT
24HR VT 02/1200Z 15.8N 130.3W 50 KT
36HR VT 03/0000Z 16.2N 133.1W 50 KT
48HR VT 03/1200Z 16.4N 135.8W 50 KT
72HR VT 04/1200Z 16.5N 140.5W 40 KT
96HR VT 05/1200Z 16.5N 145.0W 30 KT
120HR VT 06/1200Z 16.5N 150.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH

[CentralFlGal]

[AnnularCane]

[Jim Cantore]

I think I can say with confidence, that this is the worst Hurricane name ever.

[Cyclenall]

I think I can say with confidence, that this is the worst Hurricane name ever.

I wouldn't say that, back in the early 50s we had Hurricane Item, Hurricane Love, and Hurricane Dog. Just think if Hurricane Katrina was Item instead, weird!!

[senorpepr]

Links and satellite imagery for TS Fabio (07E) is now available on the Storm2k Worldwide Tropical Update.

http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/
http://tropicalupdate.storm2k.org/epac.htm

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

OMG my eyes my eyes!

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

Hurricane Easy was a weird name too.

[cycloneye]

131
WTPZ42 KNHC 020240
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072006
800 PM PDT TUE AUG 01 2006

THE FINAL VISIBLE IMAGES OF THE DAY SUGGEST THE THE CENTER OF FABIO
IS SOMEWHAT EXPOSED ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF A BALL OF DEEP
CONVECTION... REQUIRING A SMALL SOUTHWARD RELOCATION TO THE INITIAL
POSITION. THOUGH THE CYCLONE LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE WEAKER THAN 6
HOURS AGO...DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE UNCHANGED AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 45 KT. SHEAR VALUES ARE NOT FORECAST TO
CHANGE MUCH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SSTS ONLY SLOWLY
DECREASE. THEREFORE ONLY A MODEST WEAKENING IS INDICATED FOR THE
NEAR-TERM... WITH FASTER WEAKENING IN THE LONG-TERM AS THE CYCLONE
ENCOUNTERS STRONGER SHEAR AND A MORE STABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS BASICALLY THE SAME AS BEFORE.. 275/12. A
STRONG DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FABIO SHOULD STEER THE
SYSTEM IN A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST FASHION FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THEREAFTER...FABIO IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE WESTWARD AS IT BECOMES
A SHALLOWER SYSTEM MORE INFLUENCED BY THE LOW LAYER EASTERLY FLOW
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ON THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE... CLOSE TO THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0300Z 14.7N 128.2W 45 KT
12HR VT 02/1200Z 14.9N 130.2W 45 KT
24HR VT 03/0000Z 15.3N 133.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 03/1200Z 15.6N 135.7W 40 KT
48HR VT 04/0000Z 16.0N 138.5W 40 KT
72HR VT 05/0000Z 16.0N 144.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 06/0000Z 16.0N 149.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 07/0000Z 16.0N 154.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB

[Jim Cantore]

I think I can say with confidence, that this is the worst Hurricane name ever.

I wouldn't say that, back in the early 50s we had Hurricane Item, Hurricane Love, and Hurricane Dog. Just think if Hurricane Katrina was Item instead, weird!!

those were some strange alphabet, not actual names.

[bombarderoazul]

That's a weird name. My favorite name for the EPAC is Paine.

[HalloweenGale]

I can't believe its not a hurricane!

Introducing: I can't believe its not a hurricane cloud spread.

Ingriedients include: Cold water and wind shear and a bit of hawaiian passion fruit.

[Jim Cantore]

I can't believe its not a hurricane!

Introducing: I can't believe its not a hurricane cloud spread.

Ingriedients include: Cold water and wind shear and a bit of hawaiian passion fruit.