Tropical Storm Chris

[Patrick99]

I think a lot of people are making a mistake in that they are looking at the present position of the upper level low, and assuming it will stay exactly there, and at its current strength..."oh, NO WAY will it get through that"

Well yeah, it won't. But can we not assume that the upper level low will not be in the same position, nor of the same character, two days from now? Weather isn't static. Chris isn't the only thing moving out there.

[HouTXmetro]

Cloud tops are warming - no strengthening for a while.

Not a good sign for strenthening, maybe the Global models were right after all.

[gatorcane]

just remember anytime you have a tropical system taking a path into the SE Bahamas, you just have to get nervous if you are in Florida or the GOM - I predicted TD 10 would be a problem for Florida and down the road as it blew up in the Gulf stream - it later became Katrina

We really have to watch this one - it has me uneasy.

[sponger]

Looks like its on! Should be safe in S Fl! Center of cone is always the safest 5 days out.

[ConvergenceZone]

60 mph in the Bahamas before Florida. IMO with everything that occured last year and 2004 Floridia media is gonna be all over this.

The media here would be all over this except for all the mess going on in Cuba right now. That has taken precedence over everything else. Thankfully the NHC isn't forecasting this to become a hurricane or some people would be taken by surprise at this one.

Well, not sure the media would be all over this at the moment since it's not expected to do much at this time. It's now showing any signs of strengthening

I think you may want to read the latest storm discussion talking about possible further strengthening.....also, the latest forecast no longer weakens it.

yea, you may be right, but maybe they are just being cautious. They know how much heat they will get if they say that there's no chance of strengthening and then all of the sudden the storm does something that's totally unforseen. I think they need to be careful and cover all possibilities. I dont' think it will be this big storm or anything though. Maybe a strong tropical storm at best, and from what they are saying, the storm will have to follow a PERFECT path in order be centered between the lows to avoid it being sheared apart.

[rockyman]

I haven't done the research, but I'm wondering how many tropical storms formed in this area, maintained tropical storm strength (but did not strengthen into a hurricane) and then hit the mainland US...I'm guessing not too many...it seems that a storm either "gets going" or "dies out" between here and the mainland. Any takers?

[Innotech]

60 mph in the Bahamas before Florida. IMO with everything that occured last year and 2004 Floridia media is gonna be all over this.

The media here would be all over this except for all the mess going on in Cuba right now. That has taken precedence over everything else. Thankfully the NHC isn't forecasting this to become a hurricane or some people would be taken by surprise at this one.

Well, not sure the media would be all over this at the moment since it's not expected to do much at this time. It's now showing any signs of strengthening

I think you may want to read the latest storm discussion talking about possible further strengthening.....also, the latest forecast no longer weakens it.

yea, you may be right, but maybe they are just being cautious. They know how much heat they will get if they say that there's no chance of strengthening and then all of the sudden the storm does something that's totally unforseen. I think they need to be careful and cover all possibilities. I dont' think it will be this big storm or anything though. Maybe a strong tropical storm at best, and from what they are saying, the storm will have to follow a PERFECT path in order be centered between the lows to avoid it being sheared apart.

Stranger htings have happened...

[Extremeweatherguy]

I haven't done the research, but I'm wondering how many tropical storms formed in this area, maintained tropical storm strength (but did not strengthen into a hurricane) and then hit the mainland US...I'm guessing not too many...it seems that a storm either "gets going" or "dies out" between here and the mainland. Any takers?

Rita started a little further west and survived last year:

[x-y-no]

Cloud tops are warming - no strengthening for a while.

Not a good sign for strenthening, maybe the Global models were right after all.

I wouldn't go that far. I definitely don't expect this to dissipate so long as it doesn't slam into Hispaniola.

The warming cloud tops really only tell us about the upcoming few hours. Tonight or tomorrow could be a whole different story.

[rockyman]

Thanks, EWG, for the reply...but I wanted to find tropical storms that did NOT become hurricanes...but just maintained TS strength all the way in to the US (like the NHC and others are predicting).

[jasons2k]

It's still a weak system that's not really deepening (much) so the warming cloud tops are not surprising this time of day. I wouldn't read too much into it.

Also, I don't think it has much potential for a few more days. Then ???

[HouTXmetro]

Again, am I the only one seeing a more westward movement at the present or is it an illusion of the eyes?

[boca]

Honestly I'm not going to worry about this system until it gets into the SE Bahamas and is still moving WNW. Providing the ULL moves west like predicted.

[gatorcane]

Honestly I'm not going to worry about this system until it gets into the SE Bahamas and is still moving WNW. Providing the ULL moves west like predicted.

I just don't see it turning out to sea Boca - it has alot of water ahead of it and that Bermuda High is building as we speak. It looks like - I am getting worried but I wouldn't be surprised if it passes south of mainland Florida and becomes a big GOM problem later.

That ULL looks to be pulling out to me.

[skysummit]

Again, am I the only one seeing a more westward movement at the present or is it an illusion of the eyes?

It's so hard to tell where the darn center is, I have no idea. I'd say it's still going WNW though.

[HouTXmetro]

ULL moving W as predicted

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

[WindRunner]

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/NOUS42.KNHC

The plan of the day is out for the future missions.

So no NOAA mission . . . that'll make things a little simpler, even though they weren't really going to be making low-level obs anyway.

[AnnularCane]

if you read the discussion...you will see something that Chris has in common with Erin '95, Isabel, and Andrew


CHRIS IS IN A RATHER ANTICYCLONIC
LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AS EVIDENCED BY HIGH SEA LEVEL
PRESSURES OVER THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

Not exactly sure what this means.

[Kerry04]

ULL moving W as predicted

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

so is that good or bad?

[x-y-no]

I don't understand - why would they cancel the G - IV mission?