Very busy. Had to go into work at 9pm last night, got home 12:30am, awakened at 4:30am and had to come back in immediately. Not as much fun tracking storms when you don't get to sleep.
In any case, I must say that i was quite surprised that the NHC upgraded 99L to TD 3 at 10pm, as relying on IR satellite imagery on a weak, sheared low can lead to large errors in intensity and position estimates. I was even more surprised that the NHC called this Chris without any proof that the center was near the convection.
As it turned out, the NHC guessed that the center was beneath a large area of squalls closer to 16.2N but the center was 50-60 miles north of there at first light. Surprise! Sheared and exposed center. Dvorak estimates don't work well when they don't know the position of the LLC. I think you could now make a good argument that this is a TD, but as for a TS, I don't see any evidence of that. Certainly, observations around the low indicate pressures are unusually high - 1018 to 1019 mb across the NE Caribbean. it's possible that there might be a few small pockets of TS force winds in that squall to the south of the center and the one to the east. But look at the winds across the islands 90 miles to the west - 5-10 kts!
Ok, end of rant about NHC keeping me from sleeping last night because of this pitiful looking storm...
I plotted a GARP surface analysis with satellite:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/chris1.gif
You can see the exposed LLC there. Light winds all around the storm, but no data near those heavier squalls south and east. Recon may have a hard time finding TS force winds this afternoon.
As for movement, good model consensus on a general W-WNW track. Will it survive to reach the Bahamas? Maybe. Will it turn north around the Bahamas, maybe, or maybe not. That's a pretty strong ridge over the Ohio Valley. If Chris misses the opportunity to turn northward before reaching Florida (and if it survives) then it could move westward into the Gulf with a ridge to the north - a good setup for intensification.
Bottom line - Chris appears pathetic and weak. Future highly uncertain. Won't cause much problems for the NE Caribbean except perhaps for some heavy rain. No wind threat. If Chris survives and moves into the Gulf - WATCH OUT! Westward moving storm blocked by a ridge is good for intensification.
Final landfall: Somewher between Tampico, MX and North Carolina.
Back to work..