Tropical Storm Chris

[Lowpressure]

whay are the models shifting south west?????

Again, models are not worth much until recon initialization.

[Roxy]

whay are the models shifting south west?????

I see that too. any chance it'll slam into South America and just go away.

[Evil Jeremy]

whay are the models shifting south west?????

Again, models are not worth much until recon initialization.

true

[StormsAhead]

118
URNT11 KNHC 011825
97779 18194 30176 60600 03000 18043 23238 /0009
41645

45kts
how do you know its 45kts?

The group that starts with a "/" is the pressure/heights group. If the first number is 0, the next 3 numbers are the surface pressure. "009" would be "1009".

The group at the end that begins with a "4" is the surface wind group. The second and third numbers are the hundreds and tens digits of the wind direction. For example, "41645" is a surface wind from 160 degrees, which is SSE. The last two numbers in this group are the wind speed, in knots, at the surface. So, in the example above, the wind speed is 45 knots.

[Derek Ortt]

recon does not initialize models. HWRF is not yet running

If the GFS/UKM shear forecasts hold, another Sfla hurricane is a distinct possibility

[gatorcane]

recon does not initialize models. HWRF is not yet running

If the GFS/UKM shear forecasts hold, another Sfla hurricane is a distinct possibility

Another South Florida Hurricane??? - that will really get this board going

[Derek Ortt]

wonder why we don't have a vortex message yet

It appears that there is a center absed upon the data, but I wonder if the center is poorly defined

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 011839
AF303 0103A CHRIS HDOB 12 KNHC
1827. 1757N 06030W 00299 0004 134 029 232 218 030 00314 0000000000
1828 1758N 06031W 00303 0005 131 028 230 218 028 00318 0000000000
1828. 1758N 06033W 00301 0003 127 027 230 224 028 00315 0000000000
1829 1757N 06033W 00298 0002 130 027 226 226 028 00311 0000000000
1829. 1755N 06034W 00302 0001 131 026 226 226 026 00314 0000000000
1830 1754N 06035W 00301 5000 139 026 228 228 026 00311 0000000000
1830. 1753N 06036W 00301 5003 139 026 232 228 028 00309 0000000000
1831 1751N 06036W 00298 5005 138 028 230 230 029 00304 0000000000
1831. 1750N 06037W 00300 5006 137 028 232 228 029 00304 0000000000
1832 1749N 06038W 00301 5007 133 027 232 228 028 00305 0000000000
1832. 1748N 06039W 00301 5008 132 029 228 228 029 00304 0000000000
1833 1746N 06040W 00300 5009 132 028 228 228 030 00302 0000000000
1833. 1745N 06040W 00302 5011 127 029 228 228 030 00302 0000000000
1834 1744N 06041W 00300 5014 125 028 232 232 028 00296 0000000000
1834. 1742N 06042W 00302 5020 120 029 230 230 030 00292 0000000000
1835 1741N 06043W 00299 5026 124 019 236 236 023 00284 0000000000
1835. 1740N 06044W 00300 5030 130 010 242 242 013 00281 0000000000
1836 1738N 06044W 00301 5032 162 002 244 244 005 00280 0000000000
1836. 1737N 06045W 00300 5032 277 006 244 244 010 00279 0000000000
1837 1736N 06046W 00299 5032 274 012 244 244 013 00277 0000000000

[Scorpion]

recon does not initialize models. HWRF is not yet running

If the GFS/UKM shear forecasts hold, another Sfla hurricane is a distinct possibility

Oh gosh. I'm going on a cruise too so I won't even be here.

[drezee]

URNT11 KNHC 011825
97779 18194 30176 60600 03000 18043 23238 /0009
41645
RMK AF303 0103A CHRIS OB 05

45 knots surface in the NE quad

That was not the NE quad that was the E side of the system the 43 knot wind was almost due S. Due E of the center position. The 160degrees was estimated.

[ammmyjjjj]

when should we get the info from recon?

[terstorm1012]

or it'll pull a Debby (2000).

forecast to be a nasty Donna repeat and then it just fell apart.

I'm leery at this point of saying it'll be a nasty SFla hurricane given that this storm is reminding me much of Debby. That said, you all down there take care and get your preperations done now before the rush.

[WindRunner]

They're going back to the center for another look, check the map in the other thread in a second.

[drezee]

285
WHXX01 KWBC 011837
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS (AL032006) ON 20060801 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060801 1800 060802 0600 060802 1800 060803 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.6N 60.7W 18.1N 62.5W 18.6N 64.1W 18.8N 65.7W
BAMM 17.6N 60.7W 18.4N 62.6W 19.2N 64.3W 19.6N 66.0W
A98E 17.6N 60.7W 18.5N 62.4W 19.3N 64.4W 19.9N 66.6W
LBAR 17.6N 60.7W 18.2N 62.5W 19.0N 64.3W 19.4N 66.2W
SHIP 35KTS 37KTS 40KTS 43KTS
DSHP 35KTS 37KTS 40KTS 43KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060803 1800 060804 1800 060805 1800 060806 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.7N 67.3W 17.9N 71.0W 17.6N 75.2W 17.7N 79.5W
BAMM 19.9N 67.6W 19.8N 71.5W 20.0N 75.6W 20.4N 80.0W
A98E 20.2N 69.3W 22.1N 74.4W 24.3N 79.4W 27.0N 83.7W
LBAR 19.6N 68.4W 19.4N 73.1W 19.5N 78.0W 19.2N 82.4W
SHIP 46KTS 50KTS 53KTS 56KTS
DSHP 46KTS 50KTS 53KTS 56KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.6N LONCUR = 60.7W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 16.8N LONM12 = 58.9W DIRM12 = 299DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 15.9N LONM24 = 57.4W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 30NM RD34SE = 30NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[StormsAhead]

wonder why we don't have a vortex message yet

It appears that there is a center absed upon the data, but I wonder if the center is poorly defined

FWIW, they also don't generally send Recco observations from the center, unless they're not going to send a vortex.

[DESTRUCTION5]

recon does not initialize models. HWRF is not yet running

If the GFS/UKM shear forecasts hold, another Sfla hurricane is a distinct possibility

Ortt...I think were all in agreement there will be a Westward turn How much of a weakness or shall I say how far north(23n,24n,27n) do you see this storm coming before this happens?

[Air Force Met]

Too soon to say what the shear will be.

I do not know how strong this will be when it nears South Florida (assuming it doesn't pull a Debby and bury itself over Hispaniola)

I agree with tour assessment about the GOM.

...and I was going to mention Debbie. If he doesn't pull a Debbie...then we might have some big problems coming up. Off course Debbie was moving so fast, she was having a hard time keeping a closed LLC to begin with. I think she knew she looked pathetic on the south side and just decided to end it all.

[x-y-no]

recon does not initialize models. HWRF is not yet running

If the GFS/UKM shear forecasts hold, another Sfla hurricane is a distinct possibility

OK ... that got my attention ...


Not to wish you ill, Derek, but in this case I hope you're wrong.

[gatorcane]

recon does not initialize models. HWRF is not yet running

If the GFS/UKM shear forecasts hold, another Sfla hurricane is a distinct possibility

OK ... that got my attention ...


Not to wish you ill, Derek, but in this case I hope you're wrong.

Derek is rarely wrong though

[WindRunner]

Sorry for the delay, but my internet got a little screwed up for a minute.