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StormsAhead
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#461 Postby StormsAhead » Tue Aug 01, 2006 1:44 pm

URNT11 KNHC 011842
97779 18364 30176 60800 03000 27013 25258 /0008
49905
RMK AF303 0103A CHRIS OB 07

1008mb
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LSU2001
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#462 Postby LSU2001 » Tue Aug 01, 2006 1:44 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:whay are the models shifting south west?????


I don't know why they are shifting but IMHO, this would be great news for the cont. US. If the new models verify the storm will have to go over hispanola and the mountains should tear it up pretty good. It will not be good for the island because it is prone to mudslides but could be good for GOM folks.
Tim
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drezee
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#463 Postby drezee » Tue Aug 01, 2006 1:45 pm

851
URNT11 KNHC 011842
97779 18364 30176 60800 03000 27013 25258 /0008
49905
RMK AF303 0103A CHRIS OB 07


2 passes and no vortex?
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Derek Ortt

#464 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Aug 01, 2006 1:46 pm

the wind is at 270, so there almost certainly is a closed circulation

or is it missing another wind component
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#465 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 01, 2006 1:47 pm

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS (AL032006) ON 20060801 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060801 1800 060802 0600 060802 1800 060803 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.6N 60.7W 18.1N 62.5W 18.6N 64.1W 18.8N 65.7W
BAMM 17.6N 60.7W 18.4N 62.6W 19.2N 64.3W 19.6N 66.0W
A98E 17.6N 60.7W 18.5N 62.4W 19.3N 64.4W 19.9N 66.6W
LBAR 17.6N 60.7W 18.2N 62.5W 19.0N 64.3W 19.4N 66.2W
SHIP 35KTS 37KTS 40KTS 43KTS
DSHP 35KTS 37KTS 40KTS 43KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060803 1800 060804 1800 060805 1800 060806 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.7N 67.3W 17.9N 71.0W 17.6N 75.2W 17.7N 79.5W
BAMM 19.9N 67.6W 19.8N 71.5W 20.0N 75.6W 20.4N 80.0W
A98E 20.2N 69.3W 22.1N 74.4W 24.3N 79.4W 27.0N 83.7W
LBAR 19.6N 68.4W 19.4N 73.1W 19.5N 78.0W 19.2N 82.4W
SHIP 46KTS 50KTS 53KTS 56KTS
DSHP 46KTS 50KTS 53KTS 56KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.6N LONCUR = 60.7W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 16.8N LONM12 = 58.9W DIRM12 = 299DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 15.9N LONM24 = 57.4W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 30NM RD34SE = 30NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

18:00z BAM Models.
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#466 Postby StormsAhead » Tue Aug 01, 2006 1:49 pm

URNT11 KNHC 011842 CCA
97779 18394 30175 60900 03000 29031 24248 /0009
43040
RMK AF303 0103A CHRIS OB 08 CCA

40 knots
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#467 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 01, 2006 1:50 pm

Image

18:00z BAM Model graphic.Those who live in the GOM will not like that yellow line.
Last edited by cycloneye on Tue Aug 01, 2006 1:51 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#468 Postby El Nino » Tue Aug 01, 2006 1:50 pm

56 knots in 5 days ... hmmm ... what do you think of a FL straight cane ?
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#469 Postby StormsAhead » Tue Aug 01, 2006 1:50 pm

SXXX50 KNHC 011849
AF303 0103A CHRIS HDOB 13 KNHC
1837. 1735N 06047W 00302 5030 289 016 242 242 017 00282 0000000000
1838 1734N 06048W 00301 5029 292 021 240 240 023 00283 0000000000
1838. 1733N 06050W 00300 5027 288 028 246 242 029 00283 0000000000
1839 1732N 06051W 00300 5025 286 031 244 244 031 00285 0000000000
1839. 1731N 06052W 00302 5019 290 032 238 238 033 00293 0000000000
1840 1730N 06053W 00300 5014 290 034 236 236 034 00296 0000000000
1840. 1729N 06054W 00301 5010 292 033 236 236 034 00302 0000000000
1841 1728N 06055W 00300 5005 291 030 234 234 031 00306 0000000000
1841. 1726N 06054W 00302 5002 288 031 232 232 032 00310 0000000000
1842 1726N 06053W 00300 5005 278 033 236 236 033 00305 0000000000
1842. 1726N 06051W 00302 5009 270 035 234 234 037 00304 0000000000
1843 1725N 06049W 00300 5011 267 037 234 234 037 00299 0000000000
1843. 1726N 06047W 00300 5013 260 038 232 232 039 00297 0000000000
1844 1726N 06045W 00301 5013 253 038 230 230 039 00299 0000000000
1844. 1726N 06043W 00300 5011 246 037 228 228 038 00300 0000000000
1845 1726N 06041W 00300 5008 234 037 226 226 038 00302 0000000000
1845. 1726N 06039W 00302 5008 216 035 218 218 036 00305 0000000000
1846 1727N 06038W 00298 5008 195 041 208 208 042 00301 0000000000
1846. 1727N 06036W 00304 5006 191 044 196 196 046 00309 0000000100
1847 1728N 06035W 00297 5007 188 046 196 196 047 00301 0000000000
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Scorpion

#470 Postby Scorpion » Tue Aug 01, 2006 1:50 pm

47 kts..
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#471 Postby StormsAhead » Tue Aug 01, 2006 1:51 pm

URNT11 KNHC 011850
97779 18444 30174 60708 03000 23038 23239 /0011
42445
RMK AF303 0103A CHRIS OB 09

45 kts at the surface again
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#472 Postby southerngale » Tue Aug 01, 2006 1:51 pm

gtalum wrote:This thing's a weak TS in the islands. It's a bit too early to panic in the US.


Yes it is, and I don't see anyone panicking. I just see a lot of posts telling others not to panic.
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#473 Postby brunota2003 » Tue Aug 01, 2006 1:51 pm

36.8 knots from a .8 conversion for that 46 sustained at flight level!!! 34.5 for the .75
Last edited by brunota2003 on Tue Aug 01, 2006 1:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Derek Ortt

#474 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Aug 01, 2006 1:52 pm

its not time to panic. As I said at PNJ, it is best to monitor the situation in Sfla and the Gulf Coast
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#475 Postby x-y-no » Tue Aug 01, 2006 1:53 pm

URNT11 KNHC 011842 CCA
97779 18394 30175 60900 03000 29031 24248 /0009
43040
RMK AF303 0103A CHRIS OB 08 CCA

40 knots


Interesting that they're getting surface winds so much higher than the flight level ...
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MiamiensisWx

#476 Postby MiamiensisWx » Tue Aug 01, 2006 1:53 pm

47KT has just been found at flight levels.
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#477 Postby WindRunner » Tue Aug 01, 2006 1:53 pm

Image
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#478 Postby Swimdude » Tue Aug 01, 2006 1:54 pm

So are we looking at a 45 mph TS at the moment?
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Scorpion

#479 Postby Scorpion » Tue Aug 01, 2006 1:54 pm

More like 50.
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#480 Postby jasons2k » Tue Aug 01, 2006 1:54 pm

El Nino wrote:56 knots in 5 days ... hmmm ... what do you think of a FL straight cane ?


That's my best guess at this point. I don't think it will do much for the next 2-3 days and then as it approaches the straits it will finally get its act together. Once it enters the GOM then the lid will come off unfortunately. This is assuming it doesn't go into the GA.
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