Tropical Storm Chris

[Canelaw99]

I must say, I'm not buying that sharp left across Hispaniola, but that's just me. I have a feeling the NHC may shift southward a smidge at 5pm, but probably not much today. I always feel so much better once the models are a bit more together LOL

[brunota2003]

I dont think they have even touched the deepest convection have they?

[drezee]

Has anyone been looking at the Satellite lately? I mean Chris is looking good. A burst of convection right over the LLC!

[LAwxrgal]

What does the yellow line represent cycloneye?

[Derek Ortt]

they're trying to find the center

[x-y-no]

47KT has just been found at flight levels.

Yep. And the two previous numbers were 41 and 46, so it's not just a tiny area.

This was on the south side, right?

EDIT:

SE quadrant.

[txwatcher91]

Has anyone been looking at the Satellite lately? I mean Chris is looking good. A burst of convection right over the LLC!

I noticed this too. Tonight in the diurnal maximum it could really blow up.

[seaswing]

When the models come together is when it is getting too close for comfort. You just have to hope at that point you aren't in the middle of that cone of uncertainty

[Swimdude]

These BAM models interest me. 4 of the 6 seem to take Chris straight across Honduras, which, as we know, would rip it apart. Yet - the forecast still says it'll strengthen. What's the reason for this mix?

[LAwxrgal]

We're not panicking. We're watching at this point. It's all we can do. Oh, and prepare if you haven't already just in case. Never too soon.

[Lowpressure]

they're trying to find the center

What component is missing, are we looking to see?

[MiamiensisWx]

Yep. And the two previous numbers were 41 and 46, so it's not just a tiny area.

This was on the south side, right?

I believe the flight-level 47KT was taken on the north side, just above the area of deepest convection on the south side.

NOTE - Oh... yep, southeast quadrant. Thanks.

[dwg71]

wouldnt 47KT flight level equate to 35 to 40 at the surface??

[Canelaw99]

What does the yellow line represent cycloneye?

It's one of the models, albeit not one of the most reliable according to the majority on this board I think there's a thread somewhere on here about the different models - their strengths and weaknesses, etc.

[Scorpion]

Interestingly, the surface winds are higher than many FL winds.

[Extremeweatherguy]

These BAM models interest me. 4 of the 6 seem to take Chris straight across Honduras, which, as we know, would rip it apart. Yet - the forecast still says it'll strengthen. What's the reason for this mix?

I doubt this will go across that region. I think the NHC track will play out for the first 5 days, followed by it entering the Gulf.

[Derek Ortt]

for what its worth, the data T number from TAFB has decreased to 2.0/2.5

[dwg71]

What does the yellow line represent cycloneye?

It's one of the models, albeit not one of the most reliable according to the majority on this board I think there's a thread somewhere on here about the different models - their strengths and weaknesses, etc.

I think its the NHC in house model and they do not put much stock in it, I believe.

Correct me if Im wrong.

[Canelaw99]

When the models come together is when it is getting too close for comfort. You just have to hope at that point you aren't in the middle of that cone of uncertainty

Very, very true. I'm actually pretty comfy right now sitting smack dab in the middle of the 5-day cone - seems that's when we were safest the last couple of years Of course, anything can/will happen with Mother Nature, so best to be prepared, just in case.

[JonathanBelles]

Interestingly, the surface winds are higher than many FL winds.

how do you know?