Tropical Storm Chris

[Canelaw99]

Est. surface winds observed - 63mph! Yowsers...much stronger than they thought....

[txwatcher91]

If I remember correctly, isn't a 2C differential (I. 23 C/ 298 m
J. 25 C/ 301 m) pretty good for a TS?

[tracyswfla]

Est. surface winds observed - 63mph! Yowsers...much stronger than they thought....

wow... it's daytime too... wonder what the night will bring for Chris.

[cheezyWXguy]

probably thanks to that new blow-up

[StormsAhead]

...55 knot winds...

That is a visual estimate of the ocean surface, not a measurement of wind speed--the NHC does not use this estimate to determine intensity unless it agrees with wind observations.

[Canelaw99]

Hopefully he's not a night owl and he goes to bed early

[brunota2003]

53 knots at flight level is, using .75, 39.75 knots, using .8 it is 42.4 knots...

[Swimdude]

But isn't 55 kt winds at flight level? Do all the calculations, and that lands us with a 50mph TS. Where are we seeing 63mph?

[Trugunzn]

surface wind estimated visually by the onboard meteorologist

[brunota2003]

surface wind estimated visually by the onboard meteorologist

but the 53 knots I posted above is actual flight winds...

[Canelaw99]

I took the vortex message and input it in the handy-dandy Recon excel decoder and that's what it said & I quoted: "Est. surface winds observed"....those would be estimated and observed....

Maybe someone could elaborate though, how does the onboard meteorologist estimate winds on the surface? Wouldn't their best bet be to go with what the data says rather than a person's observations?

[HouTXmetro]

thanks, I was basing that on somebody saying the T numbers had fallen to 2.0 from 2.5 earlier.

[NONAME]

D. 55Kts According to the how to read on the Nhc website is the estimated surface winds.
D. ESTIMATE OF MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND OBSERVED IN KNOTS. http://www.hurricanehunters.com/vortex.htm

[Canelaw99]

Perfect, noname, ty - that means 55kt x 1.15 (to convert to mph) = 63.25mph at sea level...no reduction for the flight level stuff

So, again much stronger than they thought...

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 011929
AF303 0103A CHRIS HDOB 17 KNHC
1917. 1838N 06145W 00299 0034 059 029 236 216 029 00344 0000000000
1918 1839N 06147W 00301 0035 056 030 236 222 030 00347 0000000000
1918. 1840N 06148W 00302 0035 058 026 236 234 027 00348 0000000000
1919 1841N 06149W 00299 0036 057 029 240 228 029 00346 0000000000
1919. 1842N 06150W 00301 0036 059 027 240 226 028 00348 0000000000
1920 1843N 06151W 00302 0037 059 027 244 222 027 00349 0000000000
1920. 1845N 06152W 00299 0036 058 027 244 226 028 00346 0000000000
1921 1846N 06154W 00301 0037 056 029 240 232 029 00348 0000000000
1921. 1847N 06155W 00300 0037 054 029 242 230 030 00347 0000000000
1922 1848N 06156W 00302 0038 053 028 242 232 030 00351 0000000000
1922. 1849N 06157W 00299 0038 053 028 244 230 028 00348 0000000000
1923 1850N 06158W 00300 0039 051 028 242 230 029 00350 0000000000
1923. 1851N 06159W 00301 0039 051 027 242 232 028 00350 0000000000
1924 1852N 06201W 00302 0040 050 026 240 234 026 00352 0000000000
1924. 1853N 06202W 00299 0040 051 026 240 236 027 00350 0000000000
1925 1855N 06203W 00301 0040 053 027 240 232 028 00352 0000000000
1925. 1856N 06204W 00300 0040 055 028 242 228 028 00350 0000000000
1926 1857N 06205W 00301 0041 056 026 242 230 027 00352 0000000000
1926. 1857N 06207W 00304 0042 053 027 242 230 029 00357 0000000000
1927 1855N 06207W 00299 0040 046 026 240 232 027 00350 0000000000

[NONAME]

So would the NHC round that to 65Mph.

[JBP]

My guess is they would . . . for what that's worth

[wxmann_91]

It's interesting how the BAMD drives Chris through Hispaniola while the BAMS keeps it north. It seems that the steering patterns are a bit different this time.

[Grease Monkey]

Think they'll have a special report for the upgrade or just wait until normal time?

[DESTRUCTION5]

It's interesting how the BAMD drives Chris through Hispaniola while the BAMS keeps it north. It seems that the steering patterns are a bit different this time.

all these Models are BS right now..Thier all for the deep tropics and are useless to us untill the other Globals get off the Disapation crap and grab on to Chris...