Tropical Storm Chris

[curtadams]

Maybe I've been gone for a while, but I don't notice any huge burst of convection looking at the the infrared and vis loop.

And it's not big, but it's fairly strong, and it's exactly where it should be to amplify Chris, coming right as he seems to have straightened out his organizational issues. Recon is finding lower-than-usual flight level to surface reductions which also suggests a strengthening storm.

Nice organization + active burst + fading shear (it's pretty mild now over the whole floater view) = ominous.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

They might go with 50 mph!

[StormsAhead]

The 55 knots you see on the vortex is the ESTIMATED surface wind. That is not measured. It is estimated by looking at the ocean surface. It can be 20+ knots off. To know the actual current intensity, convert the flight-level winds (53 knots) to the surface. That would mean the storm is about 50 mph.

[SouthFloridawx]

Think they'll have a special report for the upgrade or just wait until normal time?

They will wait till the next advisory... Rapid intesification has not taken place.

[wxmann_91]

It's interesting how the BAMD drives Chris through Hispaniola while the BAMS keeps it north. It seems that the steering patterns are a bit different this time.

all these Models are BS right now..Thier all for the deep tropics and are useless to us untill the other Globals get off the Disapation crap and grab on to Chris...

True... but the steering analysis, FWIW, agrees with that scenario. The GFDL too, which had kept Chris as weakling, now strengthens it to a hurricane, then afterwards driving it through Hispaniola, into the Caribbean (correct me if I'm wrong about previous runs).

[NONAME]

You would think they would have a Special tropical update because they didn't forecast it to get this strong so fast and make may some hurricane watches because it about 10mph hour away from hurricane strentgh.

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 011939
AF303 0103A CHRIS HDOB 18 KNHC
1927. 1853N 06207W 00301 0040 045 025 242 232 026 00351 0000000000
1928 1852N 06207W 00301 0040 044 025 242 232 026 00351 0000000000
1928. 1850N 06206W 00300 0039 045 025 244 230 025 00350 0000000000
1929 1848N 06206W 00301 0039 045 025 242 232 025 00350 0000000000
1929. 1847N 06206W 00301 0038 045 026 244 226 027 00349 0000000000
1930 1845N 06206W 00300 0038 044 026 242 232 026 00349 0000000000
1930. 1843N 06207W 00300 0038 041 025 242 234 026 00349 0000000000
1931 1842N 06207W 00301 0038 040 026 242 230 027 00349 0000000000
1931. 1840N 06207W 00301 0037 040 026 244 230 026 00349 0000000000
1932 1838N 06207W 00300 0037 040 026 244 232 026 00348 0000000000
1932. 1836N 06207W 00301 0037 042 026 246 230 026 00349 0000000000
1933 1835N 06207W 00300 0037 043 026 246 226 026 00347 0000000000
1933. 1833N 06207W 00301 0037 045 027 246 226 028 00348 0000000000
1934 1831N 06207W 00301 0037 040 027 244 230 029 00348 0000000000
1934. 1830N 06207W 00301 0036 040 027 246 228 028 00348 0000000000
1935 1828N 06207W 00300 0036 036 027 244 230 028 00346 0000000000
1935. 1826N 06207W 00301 0035 033 026 244 232 027 00347 0000000000
1936 1824N 06207W 00301 0035 028 027 242 232 028 00346 0000000000
1936. 1823N 06207W 00302 0035 026 025 242 236 025 00347 0000000000
1937 1821N 06207W 00300 0034 030 024 244 232 025 00345 0000000000

[aOl]

NHC will not go to 60 or 65mph in the next update... that's just not how they do things. They will upgrade it 50mph, then if it's still looking good or stronger, they will go up to 55 or 60. NHC doesn't do huge jumps unless there's indisputable data (like when Rita jumped 105 to 175 in 3 hours...)

[StormsAhead]

You would think they would have a Special tropical update because they didn't forecast it to get this strong so fast and make may some hurricane watches because it about 10mph hour away from hurricane strentgh.

It is not 10 mph away from hurricane strength. It is at least 25 mph away from hurricane strength.

[NONAME]

My last post would depend on if they would use that 55kt for the winds.

[StormsAhead]

My last post would depend on if they would use that 55kt for the winds.

They don't use that estimate for the winds because it's an estimate.

[Extremeweatherguy]

It is looking much better right now. Wouldn't be surprised if it is upgraded to as high as a 60mph storm.

[StormsAhead]

URNT11 KNHC 011930
97779 19234 30189 62000 03000 05026 24242 /0016
40320
RMK AF303 0103A CHRIS OB 11

[DESTRUCTION5]

It's interesting how the BAMD drives Chris through Hispaniola while the BAMS keeps it north. It seems that the steering patterns are a bit different this time.

all these Models are BS right now..Thier all for the deep tropics and are useless to us untill the other Globals get off the Disapation crap and grab on to Chris...

True... but the steering analysis, FWIW, agrees with that scenario. The GFDL too, which had kept Chris as weakling, now strengthens it to a hurricane, then afterwards driving it through Hispaniola, into the Caribbean (correct me if I'm wrong about previous runs).

GFDL ruled the roost last year and this year its about as good as the AE98

[StormsAhead]

Southbound leg in the western quadrant

[brunota2003]

so they really havent traveled far into the deepest convection...correct?

[StormsAhead]

[Big_Steve]

Well without having to go through all of the pages of posts on TS Chris is it still forecasted to die soon or will it pose a threat to FL or possibly enter the GOM?


Big Steve
Biloxi, MS
08/01/06

[Extremeweatherguy]

Well without having to go through all of the pages of posts on TS Chris is it still forecasted to die soon or will it pose a threat to FL or possibly enter the GOM?


Big Steve
Biloxi, MS
08/01/06

Recon is indicating that this is strengthening (possibly 50mph+ at next advisory). Also, according to most mets it looks like this could be a GOM threat in the long run.

[StormsAhead]

so they really havent traveled far into the deepest convection...correct?

They haven't gone far, but the strongest winds are very close to the center so they probably already measured them.