Tropical Storm Chris

[JBP]

I agree Matt

[mtm4319]

Before reading the 55kt wave-estimate report, I would have guessed NHC would bump it to 40 knots at 5pm, but now I think they may go to 45 knots.

[luvcanescarol]

I love it, this is the first storm of the season I'm excited about. It's been a long time since I've checked into Storm2K constantly throughout the day to read all the posts. Thank You to all who post such great pictures and info.

[StormsAhead]

URNT11 KNHC 012013
97779 20084 30166 61900 03000 23012 24238 /0016
42310
RMK AF303 0103A CHRIS OB 12

[cheezyWXguy]

Id say either 45 or 50 kts...this thing's satelite rep/ is getting bet with each frame. A 55-60 mph storm isnt unlikey

[WindRunner]

Before reading the 55kt wave-estimate report, I would have guessed NHC would bump it to 40 knots at 5pm, but now I think they may go to 45 knots.

That would be my guess as well, not so much because of the visual readings (which I have seen them completely ignore before), but because of the two 45kt recco's that came in from the SE and E side earlier. They've turned in, so we might have time for one more fix before the advisory comes out.

[SouthFloridawx]

URNT11 KNHC 012013
97779 20084 30166 61900 03000 23012 24238 /0016
42310
RMK AF303 0103A CHRIS OB 12

They are heading towards all the convection now... lets see what we have here before we make any judgments...

DVORAK has it at 1003mb estimate and mostly likely the winds will catch up to it.

[HouTXmetro]

Well when does the next forecast come out?

[WmE]

In about 30 minutes.

[cjrciadt]

Well when does the next forecast come out?

About 20 minutes.

[Swimdude]

A note on this being similar to hurricane Georges track... That was one heck of a hurricane by the time it reached Haiti and Cuba. I don't think Chris would survive as well as Georges did.

[WindRunner]

Heading in.

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 012019
AF303 0103A CHRIS HDOB 22 KNHC
2007. 1640N 06158W 00298 0037 258 010 242 234 011 00346 0000000000
2008 1639N 06157W 00299 0037 227 012 246 226 013 00346 0000000000
2008. 1639N 06155W 00302 0037 242 013 242 222 015 00350 0000000000
2009 1638N 06154W 00301 0038 239 014 240 232 015 00350 0000000000
2009. 1636N 06153W 00300 0039 242 014 242 236 014 00349 0000000000
2010 1636N 06152W 00301 0038 235 014 246 234 014 00350 0000000000
2010. 1637N 06150W 00301 0036 241 015 250 226 016 00348 0000000000
2011 1638N 06149W 00301 0036 267 016 250 220 017 00347 0000000000
2011. 1639N 06147W 00307 0036 275 016 246 234 016 00354 0000000000
2012 1640N 06145W 00300 0036 269 017 246 238 018 00347 0000000000
2012. 1640N 06144W 00299 0037 267 017 246 236 017 00346 0000000000
2013 1641N 06142W 00302 0037 263 018 248 230 019 00350 0000000000
2013. 1641N 06140W 00299 0036 258 016 240 238 017 00345 0000000000
2014 1642N 06138W 00302 0035 261 014 238 238 015 00347 0000000000
2014. 1642N 06136W 00302 0035 268 015 240 238 016 00348 0000000000
2015 1643N 06135W 00299 0035 267 017 240 238 017 00344 0000000000
2015. 1645N 06133W 00301 0035 263 018 244 238 018 00346 0000000000
2016 1646N 06132W 00301 0034 260 018 240 238 018 00346 0000000000
2016. 1648N 06131W 00300 0034 266 016 242 220 018 00345 0000000000
2017 1649N 06130W 00300 0034 281 016 238 214 018 00344 0000000000

[cheezyWXguy]

4CDT

[mtm4319]

A note on this being similar to hurricane Georges track... That was one heck of a hurricane by the time it reached Haiti and Cuba. I don't think Chris would survive as well as Georges did.

I meant track more so than intensity... but if this stays just north of the islands -- which I think it may do -- then it might strengthen instead of weaken.

[SouthFloridawx]

4CDT

or 5EDT..

[sunny]

A note on this being similar to hurricane Georges track... That was one heck of a hurricane by the time it reached Haiti and Cuba. I don't think Chris would survive as well as Georges did.

I know that. Georges was almost a perfect "buzz saw" when he hit PR. I remember Georges quite well.

[Brent]

WOW. Huge blowup. This is gonna be a hurricane if it avoids land...

[Grease Monkey]

maybe a hurricane before it approaches the land mass.

[westmoon]

This is not looking too good for Florida yet again