Tropical Storm Chris

[HurricaneHunter914]

Wow I haven't seen so many people on this forum ever since Katrina.

[shaggy]

i hardly think you could call this flare-up a CDO.If it persist and stays directly over the center then maybe but thats a stretch right at this point lets see if it persist!

not to mention that all the globals still dissipated this storm this morning the model guidance may change greatly if they no longer dissipate it it could change the 5 day cone dramatically or it might not!

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 012039
AF303 0103A CHRIS HDOB 24 KNHC
2027. 1713N 06101W 00302 0017 244 033 216 216 033 00329 0000000000
2028 1715N 06100W 00298 0017 239 034 220 220 034 00326 0000000000
2028. 1716N 06059W 00303 0016 235 037 222 222 037 00330 0000000000
2029 1718N 06058W 00298 0014 229 034 212 212 036 00323 0000000000
2029. 1720N 06058W 00303 0011 230 034 196 196 036 00325 0000000000
2030 1721N 06058W 00298 0007 225 040 188 188 043 00316 0000000000
2030. 1723N 06057W 00302 0005 221 041 194 194 042 00318 0000000000
2031 1725N 06057W 00299 0002 219 041 194 194 042 00312 0000000000
2031. 1727N 06057W 00302 0001 228 040 210 210 041 00313 0000000000
2032 1728N 06056W 00301 0003 232 032 214 214 038 00315 0000000000
2032. 1730N 06055W 00299 0002 222 019 230 230 020 00311 0000000000
2033 1731N 06054W 00300 0000 221 021 232 232 022 00310 0000000000
2033. 1732N 06053W 00302 5002 217 023 228 228 025 00311 0000000000
2034 1734N 06053W 00299 5004 223 019 234 234 020 00305 0000000000
2034. 1735N 06054W 00300 5007 229 019 236 236 020 00304 0000000000
2035 1736N 06055W 00300 5011 240 021 238 238 022 00300 0000000000
2035. 1737N 06056W 00300 5014 250 023 248 240 023 00297 0000000000
2036 1739N 06057W 00301 5015 258 023 244 238 023 00297 0000000000
2036. 1740N 06057W 00303 5015 269 022 238 238 023 00298 0000000000
2037 1742N 06058W 00301 5017 283 023 240 236 023 00295 0000000000

[NONAME]

People when you put Wind speed please type Kts or Mph dont forget them it can get really confusing.Thanks

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
2100 UTC TUE AUG 01 2006

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF ANTIGUA HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

ALSO AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 61.2W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 61.2W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 60.7W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 18.3N 62.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 19.1N 64.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.9N 66.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.5N 68.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 21.5N 73.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 22.5N 77.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 23.5N 80.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 61.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[WindRunner]

[MiamiensisWx]

I think estimates of 50MPH to 55MPH at the 5PM EST advisory may be too bullish. Surface estimates are rather vague, and because of that, along with model guidance estimates and other factors, I see little reason supporting that they (NHC) will go higher than 45MPH at the 5PM EST advisory (although it is true that we now have concrete evidence that Chris is strengthening).

EDIT - Correct assumption... 45MPH at latest 5PM EST advisory, as I suspected.

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
500 PM AST TUE AUG 01 2006

...CHRIS A LITTLE STRONGER...APPROACHING NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD
ISLANDS...

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF ANTIGUA HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

ALSO AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.2 WEST OR ABOUT 55
MILES... 90 KM...NORTHEAST OF ANTIGUA.

CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE STORM WILL BE PASSING
NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45
MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN
STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OBSERVED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WAS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...17.7 N...61.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
500 PM EDT TUE AUG 01 2006

ON THE FIRST AIRCRAFT MISSION INTO CHRIS...THE AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND A VERY SMALL CORE OF STRONG WINDS WITH
A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1007 MB. THIS IS ACTUALLY A RATHER LOW
PRESSURE CONSIDERING THE HIGH ENVIRONMENTAL BAROMETER READINGS.
MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 53 KT JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER. BASED ON THE STANDARD 80 PERCENT REDUCTION FROM THE 1000
FT FLIGHT LEVEL THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS RELATIVELY STABLE...SOME NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL SHEAR IS IMPACTING THE SYSTEM...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO FORECAST WEAKENING. HOWEVER...THERE IS A WELL-MARKED
UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW CHANNEL EMANATING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM CHRIS...AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF OUTFLOW IS ALSO EVIDENT OVER THE
EASTERN QUADRANT. THIS DIVERGENCE ALOFT COULD ALLOW ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION. ADDITIONALLY THE GFDL MODEL FORECASTS
STRENGTHENING UNTIL THE MODELED CIRCULATION INTERACTS WITH
HISPANIOLA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE...WHICH DOES SHOW A SLIGHT DECREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR
AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS.

A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE EXISTS TO THE NORTH OF CHRIS WITH A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL WEAKNESS IN THE VICINITY OF 70W LONGITUDE. THE TROUGH
NEAR 70W IS FORECAST TO SHIFT WESTWARD WITH TIME SO THAT THE RIDGE
TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MAINTAINED...OR EVEN
STRENGTHENED. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE MODEL TRACKS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY
SHIFTING TO THE LEFT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS...MOST LIKELY IN
RESPONSE TO A BUILDING RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS THEREFORE
ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
THIS IS NORTH OF THE LATEST DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS AND THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE TRACK.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS IS MAINTAINED AT THIS TIME. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT...EVEN IF THE CENTER OF CHRIS PASSES JUST TO THE NORTH
OF SOME OF THESE ISLANDS...RATHER STRONG WINDS COULD BE EXPERIENCED
IN THE ISLANDS DUE TO RAIN BANDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF
THE STORM. IN FACT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE HEAVIEST
WEATHER IS OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/2100Z 17.7N 61.2W 40 KT
12HR VT 02/0600Z 18.3N 62.6W 45 KT
24HR VT 02/1800Z 19.1N 64.5W 45 KT
36HR VT 03/0600Z 19.9N 66.6W 50 KT
48HR VT 03/1800Z 20.5N 68.7W 50 KT
72HR VT 04/1800Z 21.5N 73.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 05/1800Z 22.5N 77.0W 55 KT
120HR VT 06/1800Z 23.5N 80.5W 55 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Extremeweatherguy]

Chris 5pm advisory = 45mph 1007mb

[Scorpion]

Recon supports higher...

[fci]

Wow what a small wind radius!

[HouTXmetro]

Now what time does the new NHC track come out?

[Extremeweatherguy]

5pm Track (looks bad for the GOM):



Expected to be a 55 knot storm at the end of day 5.

[El Nino]

40 MPH ??? I disagree. Recon fixed it at 42 knots, so good for 48 MPH. NHC will probably put close to 50.

[Toadstool]

5pm Track (looks bad for the GOM):



Expected to be a 55 knot storm at the end of day 5.

Yes, keep south please... Castro is in a coma, he won't mind... just disapate afterwards.

[PTrackerLA]

Does NOT look good for the gulf. Can you say Rita-like track?

[Extremeweatherguy]

40 MPH ??? I disagree. Recon fixed it at 42 knots, so good for 48 MPH. NHC will probably put close to 50.

The 5pm advisory has it at 45mph.

[sealbach]

can you say $4+ gas?

[N2DaTropics]

To me this has LA/Upper TX storm written all over it...a strong ridge is supposed to build in over the Eastern portion of the U.S. keeping Chris on a more WNW track once it enters into the GOM...the 7 day plot has it at about 25 Lat and 85 Long...I realize this is far too early to be making any landfall predictions but if I were forced to make a prediction it would be very Rita-esque...