Tropical Storm Chris

[cjrciadt]

Tried to show Chris on WFTV9 a second ago, and their computer locked up. No local news know about the Special Advisory yet.

[cycloneye]

Brent are you refreshing as at any moment the special advisory will be released.

[HurricaneHunter914]

It would be very unlikey, but IF Chris did became a Cat-5 would he be the second or third earliest Cat-5?

[Brent]

Brent are you refreshing as at any moment the special advisory will be released.

Yes.

[kevin]

Come on Kevin, honestly tell me that you do not reference everyday situation to things that have happend in the past!

This team reminds of the "----" Yankees or "----" Marlins or this storm reminds me Hurricane "--------".

Reminders of prior occurences do not necessarily lead to conclusions; merely references

Every weather system is unique in structure and surrounding environment. Unless one is comparing similar structures and environments, comparison is just done on the basis of 'intuition' and 'guts'. Now if one is knowledgeable and lets their mind wander, then intuition can actually come up with useful information. Other than that its mostly just guessing.

Its just my opinion. But comparing this to Wilma because its strengthening (as someone has) is more like cheerleading or doomsaying than reasoned opinion.

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

Winds are now 60 mph.

[WindRunner]

No 20:57-21:07 data set came in (as of yet)

[El Nino]

I think it'll be a busy evening ...

[WindRunner]

SXXX50 KNHC 012119
AF303 0103A CHRIS HDOB 28 KNHC
2107. 1853N 05950W 00305 0051 117 028 226 222 029 00367 0000000000
2108 1854N 05949W 00305 0051 117 027 226 222 028 00367 0000000000
2108. 1855N 05947W 00305 0052 117 028 226 218 028 00367 0000000000
2109 1856N 05946W 00305 0052 120 028 228 208 028 00367 0000000000
2109. 1858N 05945W 00304 0052 123 029 230 204 029 00367 0000000000
2110 1859N 05943W 00305 0052 128 028 230 204 029 00368 0000000000
2110. 1900N 05942W 00305 0053 129 027 230 208 028 00369 0000000000
2111 1901N 05940W 00304 0054 130 027 230 204 027 00368 0000000000
2111. 1903N 05939W 00305 0054 132 027 234 200 027 00370 0000000000
2112 1904N 05937W 00305 0055 136 027 234 206 027 00370 0000000000
2112. 1905N 05936W 00305 0055 137 026 236 204 027 00370 0000000000
2113 1907N 05935W 00305 0055 142 025 234 206 025 00370 0000000000
2113. 1908N 05933W 00305 0056 142 024 232 206 025 00371 0000000000
2114 1909N 05932W 00305 0056 143 024 236 202 024 00371 0000000000
2114. 1911N 05930W 00304 0056 141 023 236 198 023 00371 0000000000
2115 1912N 05929W 00307 0057 135 023 236 200 024 00374 0000000000
2115. 1914N 05931W 00305 0056 130 024 240 194 025 00372 0000000000
2116 1914N 05933W 00304 0056 122 022 240 190 023 00371 0000000000
2116. 1914N 05935W 00304 0056 118 024 238 196 024 00371 0000000000
2117 1914N 05937W 00304 0055 115 024 240 194 025 00370 0000000000

[WindRunner]

URNT11 KNHC 012121
97779 21124 30191 59600 03100 14025 23213 /0018
41120
RMK AF303 0103A CHRIS OB 14

[GeneratorPower]

Did they get a dropsonde pressure on this recently?

[HurricaneHunter914]

Tried to show Chris on WFTV9 a second ago, and their computer locked up. No local news know about the Special Advisory yet.

I know, I was watching too. Hopefully they'll have it up at 5:30 pm.

[Blown Away]

Chris is deepening faster than expected will that have an influence down the road on whether he gains latitude or gets pushed S??

[WindRunner]

To answer GeneratorPower's question in the report thread, they are not using dropsondes with Chris at this point, so no exact pressure reading has been made.

[pojo]

Personally knowing all the Hurricane Hunters...it is sometimes hard to find the center of circ. In many instances, flare ups can be deceiving.... center of circs can be away from the flare ups meaning a hard to find center of circ, thus causing many storm penetrations for that particular flight.

Especially in TD, TS circumstances...There are times that it is chaos aboard that A/C to find the center of circ and the true location of the storm.

Throughout all of this... PLEASE be patient!

[max]

Chris is deepening faster than expected will that have an influence down the road on whether he gains latitude or gets pushed S??

Still as we speak ? Please say no.

[Brent]

Chris is deepening faster than expected will that have an influence down the road on whether he gains latitude or gets pushed S??

Still as we speak ? Please say no.

Well as of 20 minutes ago, yes.

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
505 PM AST TUE AUG 01 2006

BASED ON A RECENT REPORT FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT...THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN CHRIS HAVE INCREASED TO
NEAR 60 MPH. A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE RELEASED SHORTLY...
PRIMARILY TO MODIFY THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITY. NO CHANGES
IN WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KNABB

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
530 PM AST TUE AUG 01 2006

...CHRIS STRENGTHENS SOME MORE...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 530 PM AST...2130Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.1 WEST OR ABOUT 75
MILES...125 KM...NORTHEAST OF ANTIGUA.

CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

LATEST REPORTS FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE AIR FORCE PLANCE RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
EASTERN PORITONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
ACOUNTS OF 8 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

REPEATING THE 530 PM AST POSITION...18.0 N...61.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 730 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1030
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KNABB

[canes04]

I hope all the folks in the Islands and PR are prepared for
possible hurricane conditions. Please be safe and smart, good luck!!
This looks like a FLA and Gulf coast storm.

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
530 PM EDT TUE AUG 01 2006

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO ADJUST THE INTENSITY UPWARD
TO 50 KT...BASED ON A 64-KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND RECENTLY MEASURED BY
THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS. ALSO...THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED THAT
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 1003 MB. THE FORECAST WIND
SPEEDS HAVE ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD SOMEWHAT. ONLY A SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENT TO THE INITIAL AND 12-HOUR FORECAST LOCATIONS IS MADE
USING THE MORE RECENT AIRCRAFT DATA...AND NO CHANGES TO THE
WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/2130Z 18.0N 61.1W 50 KT
12HR VT 02/0600Z 18.5N 62.6W 55 KT
24HR VT 02/1800Z 19.1N 64.5W 60 KT
36HR VT 03/0600Z 19.9N 66.6W 60 KT
48HR VT 03/1800Z 20.5N 68.7W 60 KT
72HR VT 04/1800Z 21.5N 73.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 05/1800Z 22.5N 77.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 06/1800Z 23.5N 80.5W 65 KT