Tropical Storm Chris

[kevin]

Chris is deepening faster than expected will that have an influence down the road on whether he gains latitude or gets pushed S??

Still as we speak ? Please say no.

I'll let you know when its time to flip out and panic Max, its days away unless you're in the islands.

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 012129
AF303 0103A CHRIS HDOB 29 KNHC
2117. 1914N 05940W 00306 0055 113 026 236 202 026 00372 0000000000
2118 1914N 05942W 00304 0054 109 026 236 202 027 00369 0000000000
2118. 1914N 05944W 00304 0054 108 026 236 208 027 00369 0000000000
2119 1915N 05946W 00305 0054 107 028 232 212 028 00369 0000000000
2119. 1915N 05949W 00305 0053 110 027 234 210 028 00369 0000000000
2120 1915N 05951W 00305 0052 112 029 236 202 029 00368 0000000000
2120. 1915N 05953W 00305 0052 112 029 236 202 029 00367 0000000000
2121 1915N 05955W 00304 0051 112 029 236 200 030 00366 0000000000
2121. 1916N 05958W 00305 0051 113 029 236 202 030 00367 0000000000
2122 1916N 06000W 00305 0051 113 029 236 200 030 00366 0000000000
2122. 1916N 06002W 00305 0051 110 030 232 212 030 00366 0000000000
2123 1916N 06004W 00305 0051 109 029 230 214 029 00367 0000000000
2123. 1916N 06007W 00305 0050 106 030 232 220 030 00366 0000000000
2124 1917N 06009W 00305 0051 106 030 232 224 030 00366 0000000000
2124. 1917N 06011W 00305 0050 107 031 234 216 032 00366 0000000000
2125 1917N 06013W 00305 0050 107 031 234 216 031 00365 0000000000
2125. 1917N 06016W 00304 0050 107 031 234 214 031 00365 0000000000
2126 1917N 06018W 00300 0049 106 031 236 216 031 00359 0000000000
2126. 1918N 06020W 00302 0048 107 031 236 214 032 00361 0000000000
2127 1918N 06022W 00305 0049 106 032 236 214 032 00364 0000000000

[Extremeweatherguy]

I remember just a few days ago when everyone said this would go "poof". How things change...

[Brent]

Updated forecast, hurricane at 72 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/2130Z 18.0N 61.1W 50 KT
12HR VT 02/0600Z 18.5N 62.6W 55 KT
24HR VT 02/1800Z 19.1N 64.5W 60 KT
36HR VT 03/0600Z 19.9N 66.6W 60 KT
48HR VT 03/1800Z 20.5N 68.7W 60 KT
72HR VT 04/1800Z 21.5N 73.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 05/1800Z 22.5N 77.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 06/1800Z 23.5N 80.5W 65 KT

Full discussion in the advisories thread.

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
2130 UTC TUE AUG 01 2006

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 61.1W AT 01/2130Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 61.1W AT 01/2130Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 60.6W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 18.5N 62.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 19.1N 64.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.9N 66.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.5N 68.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 21.5N 73.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 22.5N 77.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 23.5N 80.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 61.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KNABB

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

Wow. Things have just gone POP!
You just never really know when these things can blow up.

[max]

I have one word for you Wilma.

People thought Hurricane Wilma wasn't going to be much but look what happen. You have to always be ready for anything.

[WindRunner]

[cycloneye]

It's now forecast to become a hurricane.

[Grease Monkey]

I doubt this will be a wilma, but I wouldn't be suprised to see a Cat3 out of this somewhere during it's tropical life span.

[curtadams]

Chris is deepening faster than expected will that have an influence down the road on whether he gains latitude or gets pushed S??

Still as we speak ? Please say no.

Yes, 4 millibars since the previous vortex, and that was just reported. The center is up to 30C, which is *very* warm. (Maybe an error - are the SSTs even that high?)

[wxmann_91]

I have one word for you Wilma.

People thought Hurricane Wilma wasn't going to be much but look what happen. You have to always be ready for anything.

I think most of the pros agreed that Wilma was going to be a monster.

[max]

I doubt this will be a wilma, but I wouldn't be suprised to see a Cat3 out of this somewhere during it's tropical life span.

Of course not.

I don't expect it to be or want it to be. Just was giving a example to someone that you can't let your guard down no matter how weak it may look at first.

[PTrackerLA]

And to think this morning many questioned if it was even still a TS. Chris has been an interesting system to watch so far and I wouldn't be surprised to see a cane tomorrow. Not to bash NHC at all but even they admit it...their intensity forecasts leave MUCH to be desired.

[Stratusxpeye]

iNTERESTING. i Have a feeling chris may have more in store for us. Although I think he will have mnany surprises along the way of his path. Could be our first major

[El Nino]

Track pushed south ... Now if it won't be a GOM threat, I'd be quite surprised.

A cane in 5 days ? Hmmmm I don't think so ...

[HurricaneHunter914]

5 PM advisory shortly.It's possible that Puerto Rico and the VI will be with a Tropical Storm Warning.

Would you be suprised if a Hurricane watch was issued?

I think we might need a H-Watch now.

[stormtruth]

I doubt this will be a wilma, but I wouldn't be suprised to see a Cat3 out of this somewhere during it's tropical life span.

Are your hurri senses telling you that? It is starting to look canish already on the visible satellite.

[Rainband]

It would be highly unlikely this time of year for us on the west coast to be impacted dirtectly by this storm. I have a question though. If this storm continues to get stronger will that affect the Bremuda high and casue it to have a path further north? Like jeanne or Frances for example.?

[cycloneye]

5 PM advisory shortly.It's possible that Puerto Rico and the VI will be with a Tropical Storm Warning.

Would you be suprised if a Hurricane watch was issued?

I think we might need a H-Watch now.

Hey,that is nothing to laugh about.