Tropical Systems Strength & impact on track

[HouTXmetro]

I decided to create this thread because we are not getting many answers within the threads. I have been told the rule of thumb is the Stronger the cane the more poleward movement vs a weak system. However, some mets have suggested that with Chris there may be an exception to the rule. Can pro-mets and others chime on on this scenario in General and specifically with Chris?

[jasons2k]

There was a geat, detailed writeup on this awhile back - I think it was written by Wxman57, you'd have to search for it.

[HouTXmetro]

There was a geat, detailed writeup on this awhile back - I think it was written by Wxman57, you'd have to search for it.

Someone recently mentioned that with Chris the Ridging is stronger at the 850mb level therefore it will move more westward. I don't quite understand though.

[Galvestongirl]

with Chris there may be an exception to the rule. Can pro-mets and others chime on on this scenario in General and specifically with Chris?

Great question! I have been wondering this myself.

[MiamiensisWx]

Based on the synoptics playing out and movement, I feel Chris may take a track (and intensity to some degree) to these two 1880 storms...

First storm

This storm (link above) formed in a rather similar area around this time of year only slightly further north (and probably more east) than Chris. Based on the ridging/trough pattern, Chris may take a track somewhat similar to that, only somewhat more southward and westward to some degree.

Second storm

The second storm shown (link above) is quite similar to Chris is projected track and formation area. Chris may also take a track quite similar to this one, yet slightly further north and without the southwestward jog.

Although I personally don't think Chris may make it to the far western Gulf, a west-central Louisiana threat or eastward (and southern Florida/Keys threat) is most possible, in my opinion, based on the synoptics.

[ericinmia]

simple answer....


Weak waves and Td's including some weak ts's... are steered by westerlies generally...

Stronger storms such as hurricanes are steered by the Complex higher level features like ridges and highs. So as this storm developes... its going to bump up into the high until the high stops it.... troughs... splits... etc all can influence its movement beyond there.

Summation... the stronger this gets the more likely it will stay north of the islands... or at least on the southern periferary of the ridge. And with the ULL backing out, its building westward.

I need to take a look at the maps to see whats going on before making a more detailed answer

[AJC3]

simple answer....


Weak waves and Td's including some weak ts's... are steered by westerlies generally...

Stronger storms such as hurricanes are steered by the Complex higher level features like ridges and highs. So as this storm developes... its going to bump up into the high until the high stops it.... troughs... splits... etc all can influence its movement beyond there.

Summation... the stronger this gets the more likely it will stay north of the islands... or at least on the southern periferary of the ridge. And with the ULL backing out, its building westward.

I need to take a look at the maps to see whats going on before making a more detailed answer

While your answer is simple, it's not correct.

Tropical cyclones are steered by mean layer winds. The stronger a TC is, the more vertically deep it becomes...to a point. The "stronger, farther north" rule of thumb is based on the notion that the more vertically deep a system is, the more likely it is to "feel" any sort of weakness in the mid to upper tropospheric ridge.

However, this assumes that there is actually a weakness there, and that you don't have the back side of the upper level ridge "pushing down" on the TC, or in other words, adding an addition westward, or in some cases southwestward component to the steering flow.

Case en pointe....note that the deep layer BAM has consistently been SOUTH of the medium layer BAM for Chris (which is also indicative of northerly shear to some extent).

[mtm4319]

Based on the synoptics playing out and movement, I feel Chris may take a track (and intensity to some degree) to these two 1880 storms...

First storm

This storm (link above) formed in a rather similar area around this time of year only slightly further north (and probably more east) than Chris. Based on the ridging/trough pattern, Chris may take a track somewhat similar to that, only somewhat more southward and westward to some degree.

Second storm

The second storm shown (link above) is quite similar to Chris is projected track and formation area. Chris may also take a track quite similar to this one, yet slightly further north and without the southwestward jog.

Although I personally don't think Chris may make it to the far western Gulf, a west-central Louisiana threat or eastward (and southern Florida/Keys threat) is most possible, in my opinion, based on the synoptics.

I mentioned this in the previous Chris comments thread... but is a Georges-like track possible in your reasoning?

[MiamiensisWx]

I mentioned this in the previous Chris comments thread... but is a Georges-like track possible in your reasoning?

A somewhat Georges-like track is possible, especially just north of the islands, in my opinion (though perhaps slightly more westward than Georges).

[Jim Cantore]

I mentioned this in the previous Chris comments thread... but is a Georges-like track possible in your reasoning?

A somewhat Georges-like track is possible, especially just north of the islands, in my opinion (though perhaps slightly more westward than Georges).

That wont be pretty

[MGC]

Right now a Georges type track is looking quite possible for Chris. Only difference I see is Chris might track just north of the Greater Antilles and not be as strong....MGC