Tropical Storm Chris

[Stratosphere747]

Until the G-IV missions are flown. The track is iffy, IMO....

how are the Gulfstream IV missions different then the Recon flights? No Dropsondes?

They test the atmosphere ahead of the system, thus giving the models better input..

[MiamiensisWx]

52KT flight-level found while heading back in from the northwest...

[ROCK]

People need to remember one things about storms, you can not predict what they will do. Chris has been written off to die and look at it now. If the system gets in the gulf , we all need to watch it from the big bend to say LA/MS border. The picture will get clearer by weekend.

I think it will need to watched from the Big Bend all the way to Brownsville. With such a strong ridge to the north, this system will likely be more of a central/western Gulf threat.

I was thinking more along the lines of FL to MS. I don't know how far west this ridge will hold. To far out for me to say NGOM or WGOM issue just yet. Will be watching the models closely as it approaches Cuba then FL.

BTW- if this does make into the GOM with light shear, the sst's are more than warm enough to support something more than a cat 1....

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

[cycloneye]

A new vortex message will come shortly.

[dixiebreeze]

It would be highly unlikely this time of year for us on the west coast to be impacted dirtectly by this storm. I have a question though. If this storm continues to get stronger will that affect the Bremuda high and casue it to have a path further north? Like jeanne or Frances for example.?

A path a little farther north is my concern Rainband, crossing the S. Fla. Peninsula and recharging in the GOM

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Another thing everyone has to keep in mind is that the models have been trying to fill Eastern NOAM mean Trough all Summer and Spring. Maybe they are over doing this Ridge again. Who knows, but it is something to keep in mind.

[mtm4319]

I always seem to post at the very end of the page. (reposting...)

Some maps to consider over the next few days:

Cyclone Heat Potential
Kind of average right now. If this was south of the islands, heat potential would be a good bit greater.

Depth of 26°C isotherm
Also not spectacular.

Sea Surface Temperatures
Here's where the favorability lies. North of Cuba are some of the hottest waters in the Atlantic.

Potential Minimum Pressure/Maximum Wind
Category 4 or 5 winds, and pressures of 940mb or below, are conceivable pretty much wherever Chris tracks. Of course, this doesn't mean it's likely.

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 012239
AF303 0103A CHRIS HDOB 36 KNHC
2227. 1804N 06113W 00365 5058 235 014 240 240 022 00318 0000000000
2228 1803N 06112W 00366 5045 217 026 238 238 027 00332 0000000000
2228. 1802N 06110W 00368 5033 209 021 232 232 022 00346 0000000000
2229 1802N 06109W 00365 5025 186 023 230 230 025 00351 0000000000
2229. 1802N 06107W 00365 5020 175 028 226 226 028 00355 0000000000
2230 1802N 06106W 00366 5017 179 029 226 226 030 00360 0000000000
2230. 1801N 06104W 00363 5014 177 029 226 226 029 00359 0000000000
2231 1800N 06104W 00324 5013 179 029 230 226 029 00321 0000000000
2231. 1759N 06102W 00304 5012 175 029 230 230 030 00302 0000000000
2232 1758N 06101W 00299 5010 166 032 228 228 034 00299 0000000000
2232. 1758N 06100W 00306 5010 170 033 226 226 036 00306 0000000000
2233 1757N 06059W 00302 5007 166 034 230 230 036 00305 0000000000
2233. 1756N 06058W 00307 5007 172 030 230 230 031 00310 0000000000
2234 1755N 06058W 00305 5005 175 028 226 226 029 00311 0000000000
2234. 1753N 06057W 00306 5003 171 032 216 216 035 00313 0000000000
2235 1753N 06056W 00304 5003 179 043 200 200 049 00312 0000000000
2235. 1752N 06055W 00307 5001 174 048 192 192 052 00317 0000000000
2236 1751N 06054W 00302 5001 178 054 192 192 056 00311 0000000000
2236. 1750N 06053W 00304 0001 182 055 196 196 055 00315 0000000000
2237 1749N 06053W 00306 0001 183 055 192 192 057 00318 0000000000

[jlauderdal]

I think this will strengthen much faster and more intensely than the NHC thinks...I'm going to write a prediction shortly. It will make your head shake.

and make us appreciate the nhc even more..

[MiamiensisWx]

57KT flight-level while heading southeastward inward now, with winds going up on last measure...

[CrazyC83]

NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST...Just my prediction.

Tropical Storm Chris is on a rapid intensification run, and I think it will continue for 2-3 days before levelling off. It found an area of good conditions and it will remain in such. Hence, I think it will quickly become a hurricane and become a major hurricane - and a very dangerous hurricane - before it peaks.



Current - 18.0/61.1 - 60mph - 1001mb
6 hrs - 18.2/61.7 - 70mph - 995mb
12 hrs - 18.4/62.7 - 80mph - 988mb
24 hrs - 19.0/64.5 - 100mph - 979mb
36 hrs - 19.8/67.1 - 105mph - 973mb
48 hrs - 20.6/69.9 - 120mph - 964mb
60 hrs - 21.3/71.7 - 120mph - 954mb near SE Bahamas
72 hrs - 21.4/74.0 - 135mph - 944mb
96 hrs - 23.2/78.3 - 135mph - 940mb near SW Bahamas
120 hrs - 24.5/82.4 - 110mph - 959mb near FL Keys

[Normandy]

So what magically weakens it from 135 to 110?

[Swimdude]

wouldn't be surprised to see some of the strongest readings thusfar within a few minutes here.

[Scorpion]

Nice forecast, but why weaken it when it is in some of the warmest waters in the basin?

[Ivanhater]

Hey I do not like where you are pointing that arrow, it is not nice to point

[CrazyC83]

Nice forecast, but why weaken it when it is in some of the warmest waters in the basin?

Eyewall replacement cycles.

[Scorpion]

Ah, ok. Makes sense.

[Rainband]

Hey I do not like where you are pointing that arrow, it is not nice to point

don't worry there is nothing this time of year to turn it towards you

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

I really hope your forecast is wrong. Unless you have it steadily weakening up until it's GOM landfall.

[CrazyC83]

If that prediction holds, we likely won't be seeing Chris in 2012...