Tropical Storm Chris

[shaggy]

if he hits the jackpot in the gulf which would be the loop current the entire gulf coast would go insane beacuse you would then have a 175 -180 mph sustained cat 5 to deal with

thats a bold statement and not likely to occur making comments like this one just might make people go insane if they are not familiar with weather systems!

[mtm4319]

We may have had >64 knots on a pass about 10-20 minutes ago, but the set of miniobs didn't transmit.

[Ivanhater]

Hey I do not like where you are pointing that arrow, it is not nice to point

don't worry there is nothing this time of year to turn it towards you

What does time of year have to do with it?

No fronts to yank it North or Ne

Your Kidding right? Charley was not that long ago

Charley was influenced by a front

Exactly...so I consider a front to be something to influence, you said there is nothing "this time of year" to make it influence my general area....anyway here is the historical map again to show how EXTREMELY rare it would be for a storm to make the journey all the way across the gulf, but hey there is always that chance

[WindRunner]

Well, unfortunately the most interesting dataset wasn't transmitted, and there isn't much hope for it showing up anytime soon in the archive, as the last dataset that wasn't transmitted (about 2 hours ago) hasn't shown up either. Guess we'll have to just wait until the supp. vortex to see if they found anything topping 64kts in the outbound leg.

[Aquawind]

REtransmit Please....

[StormsAhead]

URNT14 KNHC 012304
SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
INBOUND
LAT LON jHHH TTDD ddfff
01193 10622 10017 12423 06022
02191 20620 20017 22222 06025
03189 30619 30016 32323 07024
04187 40617 40015 42422 07029
05186 50614 50014 52321 07032
06183 60613 60012 62222 06042
MF182 M0613 MF052
OBS 01 AT 21:58:40Z
OBS 06 AT 22:21:40Z
OBS 01 SFC WND 05025
OUTBOUND
LAT LON jHHH TTDD ddfff
01180 10610 10011 12222 16036
02178 20608 20013 2//// 19047
03176 30606 30016 32222 19034
04174 40605 40017 42222 19032
MF178 M0608 MF059
OBS 01 AT 22:32:10Z
OBS 04 AT 22:49:50Z
OBS 04 SFC WND /////
AF303 0103A CHRIS OB 19

Nothing higher than that 64 knots yet

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 012309
AF303 0103A CHRIS HDOB 39 KNHC
2257. 1731N 06007W 00304 0045 164 032 238 234 032 00359 0000000000
2258 1732N 06005W 00305 0045 162 033 240 236 033 00360 0000000000
2258. 1732N 06004W 00306 0045 161 031 238 236 032 00361 0000000000
2259 1733N 06002W 00304 0045 158 029 236 234 029 00360 0000000000
2259. 1734N 06001W 00305 0046 157 027 234 234 028 00362 0000000000
2300 1734N 06000W 00304 0047 156 026 234 230 026 00362 0000000000
2300. 1735N 05958W 00306 0047 155 028 236 228 030 00364 0000000000
2301 1736N 05957W 00305 0047 159 029 238 228 030 00362 0000000000
2301. 1737N 05955W 00305 0048 157 028 238 228 029 00363 0000000000
2302 1738N 05955W 00306 0048 152 028 236 230 029 00365 0000000000
2302. 1740N 05955W 00305 0048 150 028 236 228 029 00364 0000000000
2303 1742N 05955W 00306 0048 150 028 236 226 028 00364 0000000000
2303. 1744N 05956W 00310 0049 149 029 236 226 030 00369 0000000000
2304 1746N 05956W 00305 0050 148 030 236 224 030 00365 0000000000
2304. 1748N 05956W 00305 0050 150 028 236 220 028 00365 0000000000
2305 1749N 05956W 00307 0050 148 029 238 222 029 00368 0000000000
2305. 1751N 05957W 00304 0050 148 028 240 216 028 00364 0000000000
2306 1753N 05957W 00305 0051 146 028 240 218 028 00366 0000000000
2306. 1755N 05957W 00305 0052 146 028 240 212 028 00368 0000000000
2307 1757N 05957W 00305 0052 146 029 240 214 030 00367 0000000000

[f5]

if thats the case it would be a carolinas storm and Joe Bastardi has been warning that this maybe a carolinas year

[wxmann_91]

Your Kidding right? Charley was not that long ago

Charley's setup is pretty rare for August, and it should not occur this time.

As I stated long ago in the first thread, if the TUTT can enhance outflow this would be pretty strong. However, as of right now, that is not certain to occur.

I would strengthen this up to a strong Cat 1, leveling it off as it skirts to the north of Hispaniola or Cuba (maybe even weakening it some).

[CrazyC83]

That was one big bombshell I dropped here with my prediction...

[MiamiensisWx]

Perhaps it will retransmit eventually into the archive, although it may well not happen, either.

[WindRunner]

Hey I do not like where you are pointing that arrow, it is not nice to point

don't worry there is nothing this time of year to turn it towards you

What does time of year have to do with it?

Fronts . . . later in the year, the eastern gulf has to worry about storms getting turned around by the fronts that pass through the gulf. However, during this time of year, fronts generally don't make it that far south.

EDIT: Wow, I need to check for another page before posting . . .

[brunota2003]

REtransmit Please....

I completely agree...I was like alright! 056, 057...then the ob ended...no biggy, wait until the next one comes out...then I hear it didnt transmit

[JPmia]

Then the obvious question is, are there any fronts that will come down to swoop it north? From this discussion, I gather there will be none and high pressure will build even further west with the storm. Hmm. This should be interesting the next couple of days.

Hey I do not like where you are pointing that arrow, it is not nice to point

don't worry there is nothing this time of year to turn it towards you

What does time of year have to do with it?

No fronts to yank it North or Ne

Your Kidding right? Charley was not that long ago

Charley was influenced by a front

Exactly...so I consider a front to be something to influence, you said there is nothing "this time of year" to make it influence my general area....anyway here is the historical map again to show how EXTREMELY rare it would be for a storm to make the journey all the way across the gulf, but hey there is always that chance

[CrazyC83]

Can a hurricane break a front?

[mtm4319]

Can a hurricane break a front?

Considering Wilma didn't...

[StormsAhead]

The highest winds in the missing set were 59 knots according to the Supp. Vortex

[wxmann_91]

No. Hurricanes are nothing compared to midlatitude systems.

[johngaltfla]

if he hits the jackpot in the gulf which would be the loop current the entire gulf coast would go insane beacuse you would then have a 175 -180 mph sustained cat 5 to deal with

That will be good for oil prices....NOT.

Very, very scarey because the SST's are downright HOT now....

[Ivanhater]

I'm not saying there will be a front, I was responding to the statement about nothing to influence it "this time of year" which is not true , we saw it just 2 years ago with Charley...however, looking at the historical map I find it hard to believe this will make the journey all the way across the gulf...