Tropical Storm Chris

[WindRunner]

[BatzVI]

Well, my preps are all done......just playing the waiting game now.....winds are nice out of the northeast....has cooled down a bit.....does anyone think this could possibly turn more west in the next 12-18 hours?....just curious....

[EDR1222]

I will be curiousl to see what the later model runs tonight and tomorrow will show.

Is there information on whether they are going to be sending the jet out there to check the environment around Chris? Not sure how that works or how they determine whether to fly one out or not.

Hopefully someone can chime in with some information.

[MWatkins]

Outflow has improved markedly in the past few hours...it is beginning to spread out in all directions save the NW...and even there it is making a little progress.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/wv-l.jpg

Also with noting the surrounding environment appears to be midifying just a tad and doesn't appear quite so dry...

MW

[JPmia]

From what I am hearing here and other boards, Chris will be in a rather favorable environment the next couple of days if all goes according to forecast. I think the intensity forecast by NHC is way too low during the next couple of days. I bet they know that too.

[MWatkins]

I will be curiousl to see what the later model runs tonight and tomorrow will show.

Is there information on whether they are going to be sending the jet out there to check the environment around Chris? Not sure how that works or how they determine whether to fly one out or not.

Hopefully someone can chime in with some information.

There is one on the recon schedule for tomorrow. Given the trends we've seen tonight they will probably go ahead and fly it...

MW

[EDR1222]

Thanks for the update Mike.

[Stratosphere747]

I will be curiousl to see what the later model runs tonight and tomorrow will show.

Is there information on whether they are going to be sending the jet out there to check the environment around Chris? Not sure how that works or how they determine whether to fly one out or not.

Hopefully someone can chime in with some information.

They should schedule one for tomorrow night, since they canceled the one set for today, why I'm not sure.

Until this data is ingested into the models, IMO the track is iffy and many in the CONUS are getting worked up a bit premature.

*Slow on the response*

[f5]

if he hits the jackpot in the gulf which would be the loop current the entire gulf coast would go insane beacuse you would then have a 175 -180 mph sustained cat 5 to deal with

That will be good for oil prices....NOT.

Very, very scarey because the SST's are downright HOT now....

Katrina&Rita demostrated what kind of monster the loop current can pump out and other CAT 5 will put NO over the edge

[WindRunner]

An interesting thing I just noted after looking at my vortex plots . . . the two plots we have so far indicate a slightly north of NW motion, say about 325 degrees, not the NHC's 295 WNW on the 5:30. I'm not sure what this is a sign of, and it may just be a wobble. A third vortex in the next half-hour or so should make it easier to draw some conclusions from this.

Well, the third vortex came in, and at just slightly south of NW from the 2nd vortex, and a mean motion of due NW over the 3.5 hours from the first vortex. Maybe it isn't a wobble after all . . .

[JPmia]

I will be curiousl to see what the later model runs tonight and tomorrow will show.

Is there information on whether they are going to be sending the jet out there to check the environment around Chris? Not sure how that works or how they determine whether to fly one out or not.

Hopefully someone can chime in with some information.

They should schedule one for tomorrow night, since they canceled the one set for today, why I'm not sure.

Until this data is ingested into the models, IMO the track is iffy and many in the CONUS are getting worked up a bit premature.

I agree, Floridians, especially South Floridians, have seen this setup many times and to only watch the storm suddenly go north to the carolinas or south through the straits. Give it a couple of days folks but it wouldn't hurt to go get some supplies that you know you need.

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 012319
AF303 0103A CHRIS HDOB 40 KNHC
2307. 1759N 05958W 00305 0052 144 029 240 216 029 00367 0000000000
2308 1801N 05958W 00306 0052 142 027 236 222 028 00369 0000000000
2308. 1803N 05958W 00304 0052 141 024 234 230 025 00367 0000000000
2309 1805N 05958W 00296 0053 140 026 234 232 026 00360 0000000000
2309. 1807N 05959W 00304 0053 145 025 236 230 026 00368 0000000000
2310 1808N 05959W 00304 0053 150 030 238 218 032 00367 0000000000
2310. 1810N 05959W 00306 0053 153 032 240 210 035 00369 0000000000
2311 1812N 05959W 00305 0053 146 032 236 224 033 00369 0000000000
2311. 1814N 06000W 00307 0054 136 033 226 226 034 00372 0000000000
2312 1815N 05959W 00302 0053 132 027 204 204 029 00366 0000000000
2312. 1817N 05959W 00303 0052 129 032 224 224 034 00366 0000000000
2313 1819N 05959W 00309 0052 122 031 226 226 033 00372 0000000000
2313. 1820N 06000W 00302 0052 116 029 226 226 029 00365 0000000000
2314 1822N 06001W 00304 0053 109 031 222 222 032 00368 0000000000
2314. 1824N 06001W 00306 0053 117 032 226 226 033 00369 0000000000
2315 1825N 06001W 00304 0052 120 031 228 224 033 00367 0000000000
2315. 1827N 06001W 00311 0052 114 032 226 222 032 00373 0000000000
2316 1829N 06001W 00304 0052 117 033 226 222 033 00367 0000000000
2316. 1830N 06002W 00306 0053 120 032 228 220 033 00369 0000000000
2317 1832N 06002W 00308 0053 120 032 230 218 032 00371 0000000000

[WindRunner]

[Grease Monkey]

I agree, Floridians, especially South Floridians, have seen this setup many times and to only watch the storm suddenly go north to the carolinas or south through the straits. Give it a couple of days folks but it wouldn't hurt to go get some supplies that you know you need.

What if you're broke?

[Flakeys]

It's heading for Herbert's Box!
http://www.hurricanecity.com/hebertbox.htm

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

They need to have more recon. Alberto and Beryl both had a plane going nights in days.

[mvtrucking]

An interesting thing I just noted after looking at my vortex plots . . . the two plots we have so far indicate a slightly north of NW motion, say about 325 degrees, not the NHC's 295 WNW on the 5:30. I'm not sure what this is a sign of, and it may just be a wobble. A third vortex in the next half-hour or so should make it easier to draw some conclusions from this.

Well, the third vortex came in, and at just slightly south of NW from the 2nd vortex, and a mean motion of due NW over the 3.5 hours from the first vortex. Maybe it isn't a wobble after all . . .

Looks like it. Also following the NHC's forecast pts to a T

[mtm4319]

It's heading for Herbert's Box!
http://www.hurricanecity.com/hebertbox.htm

It's already in the box.

So what does all this mean when a Hurricane passes or develops in the Hebert Box east of Puerto Rico since 1950?
1)N Carolina has as much chance to get hit as Florida.
2)20.58% or most go out to sea without hitting land.
3)Only 8.82% make it into the Gulf of Mexico.
4)Puerto Rico will get hit 20.58% of the time (the highest outside of n Antilles).

Note that this does not guarantee a Florida hit; rather, not passing through the box would indicate a Florida hit is less likely. Andrew did not go through the Hebert box.

[WindRunner]

[sunny]

Well, my preps are all done......just playing the waiting game now.....winds are nice out of the northeast....has cooled down a bit.....does anyone think this could possibly turn more west in the next 12-18 hours?....just curious....

hey Batz. I'm glad you have your preps done. Stay safe down there.