Tropical Storm Chris

[JPmia]

That box idea is old fashioned these days in my opinion. Every storm is different with a different synoptic environment around each time.

[Derek Ortt]

the recon after this one goes in at 2 a.m.

[stormtruth]

That box idea is old fashioned these days in my opinion. Every storm is different with a different synoptic environment around each time.

Herbert's Box is so old school. Yet kind of cool in a retro kind of way.

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 012329
AF303 0103A CHRIS HDOB 41 KNHC
2317. 1834N 06002W 00304 0053 119 029 230 216 030 00368 0000000000
2318 1836N 06002W 00304 0053 119 028 226 214 029 00368 0000000000
2318. 1838N 06003W 00307 0052 126 029 228 212 030 00370 0000000000
2319 1840N 06003W 00305 0053 127 030 230 210 031 00368 0000000000
2319. 1842N 06003W 00304 0053 125 030 228 214 031 00368 0000000000
2320 1843N 06003W 00305 0054 118 031 226 220 032 00369 0000000000
2320. 1845N 06004W 00303 0054 120 034 226 218 035 00368 0000000000
2321 1847N 06004W 00306 0055 123 034 226 218 035 00372 0000000000
2321. 1849N 06004W 00304 0056 124 034 224 218 034 00370 0000000000
2322 1851N 06004W 00305 0056 123 034 226 218 034 00372 0000000000
2322. 1853N 06005W 00304 0056 122 032 230 206 033 00371 0000000000
2323 1855N 06005W 00305 0057 121 033 230 204 034 00372 0000000000
2323. 1857N 06005W 00306 0057 120 033 232 198 034 00373 0000000000
2324 1858N 06005W 00303 0057 119 033 232 200 034 00371 0000000000
2324. 1900N 06006W 00306 0058 119 033 234 200 033 00375 0000000000
2325 1902N 06006W 00305 0058 120 032 236 192 033 00374 0000000000
2325. 1904N 06006W 00303 0058 123 032 240 184 032 00371 0000000000
2326 1906N 06006W 00306 0058 128 031 240 184 031 00374 0000000000
2326. 1908N 06007W 00306 0058 132 032 238 190 032 00375 0000000000
2327 1910N 06007W 00304 0058 130 032 242 186 032 00373 0000000000

[dwsqos2]

029
URNT11 KNHC 012335
97779 23314 30195 60210 03000 12031 2322/ /0019
RMK AF303 0103A CHRIS OB 20

[WindRunner]

SXXX50 KNHC 012329
AF303 0103A CHRIS HDOB 41 KNHC
2317. 1834N 06002W 00304 0053 119 029 230 216 030 00368 0000000000
2318 1836N 06002W 00304 0053 119 028 226 214 029 00368 0000000000
2318. 1838N 06003W 00307 0052 126 029 228 212 030 00370 0000000000
2319 1840N 06003W 00305 0053 127 030 230 210 031 00368 0000000000
2319. 1842N 06003W 00304 0053 125 030 228 214 031 00368 0000000000
2320 1843N 06003W 00305 0054 118 031 226 220 032 00369 0000000000
2320. 1845N 06004W 00303 0054 120 034 226 218 035 00368 0000000000
2321 1847N 06004W 00306 0055 123 034 226 218 035 00372 0000000000
2321. 1849N 06004W 00304 0056 124 034 224 218 034 00370 0000000000
2322 1851N 06004W 00305 0056 123 034 226 218 034 00372 0000000000
2322. 1853N 06005W 00304 0056 122 032 230 206 033 00371 0000000000
2323 1855N 06005W 00305 0057 121 033 230 204 034 00372 0000000000
2323. 1857N 06005W 00306 0057 120 033 232 198 034 00373 0000000000
2324 1858N 06005W 00303 0057 119 033 232 200 034 00371 0000000000
2324. 1900N 06006W 00306 0058 119 033 234 200 033 00375 0000000000
2325 1902N 06006W 00305 0058 120 032 236 192 033 00374 0000000000
2325. 1904N 06006W 00303 0058 123 032 240 184 032 00371 0000000000
2326 1906N 06006W 00306 0058 128 031 240 184 031 00374 0000000000
2326. 1908N 06007W 00306 0058 132 032 238 190 032 00375 0000000000
2327 1910N 06007W 00304 0058 130 032 242 186 032 00373 0000000000

[JPmia]

I posted this on another board, but thought it worth repeating: It will be an interesting couple of days here is S. FL. As most down here are thinking about Cuba and good'ole Fidel. Our attention will quickly turn to our east by Friday as we watch the approach of Chris. From Fidel to Chris, Channel 7 will have a field day with these news items!

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 012339
AF303 0103A CHRIS HDOB 42 KNHC
2327. 1912N 06007W 00303 0058 128 033 240 190 034 00372 0000000000
2328 1914N 06007W 00305 0059 124 034 234 194 034 00374 0000000000
2328. 1915N 06008W 00305 0058 126 033 242 180 033 00373 0000000000
2329 1917N 06008W 00306 0059 126 033 242 184 033 00375 0000000000
2329. 1919N 06008W 00306 0059 127 035 236 190 036 00375 0000000000
2330 1921N 06008W 00304 0060 126 035 232 204 035 00374 0000000000
2330. 1923N 06009W 00305 0060 124 034 230 212 034 00376 0000000000
2331 1925N 06009W 00306 0061 119 034 232 210 034 00377 0000000000
2331. 1927N 06009W 00304 0061 119 033 232 220 033 00375 0000000000
2332 1929N 06009W 00305 0062 124 031 230 224 031 00378 0000000000
2332. 1931N 06010W 00306 0063 123 031 230 224 032 00379 0000000000
2333 1932N 06010W 00304 0062 121 032 232 222 034 00376 0000000000
2333. 1934N 06010W 00306 0063 122 029 232 222 031 00380 0000000000
2334 1934N 06012W 00305 0063 118 030 232 222 031 00379 0000000000
2334. 1933N 06013W 00302 0062 120 027 230 222 028 00375 0000000000
2335 1932N 06015W 00306 0062 116 028 230 224 029 00379 0000000000
2335. 1930N 06016W 00305 0061 113 029 230 222 031 00377 0000000000
2336 1929N 06017W 00303 0061 115 029 234 216 030 00374 0000000000
2336. 1928N 06019W 00306 0060 117 031 238 208 032 00377 0000000000
2337 1927N 06020W 00305 0060 113 032 238 208 033 00376 0000000000

[WindRunner]

[BatzVI]

I don't understand enough about all the "ridging," etc.....so can any of the experts say if there is any possibility of this turning a bit more west...naturally, I'm curious as it's not that far away.....

[wxman57]

That box idea is old fashioned these days in my opinion. Every storm is different with a different synoptic environment around each time.

Herbert's Box is so old school. Yet kind of cool in a retro kind of way.

It's Hebert's box - a French-Cajun name (A-Bear), not "Herbert".

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 012349
AF303 0103A CHRIS HDOB 43 KNHC
2337. 1925N 06021W 00305 0058 110 032 242 196 033 00374 0000000000
2338 1924N 06023W 00305 0057 109 032 240 200 032 00373 0000000000
2338. 1923N 06024W 00305 0057 110 031 240 194 032 00372 0000000000
2339 1922N 06026W 00304 0056 112 031 236 204 031 00371 0000000000
2339. 1920N 06027W 00305 0056 115 032 242 196 032 00372 0000000000
2340 1919N 06028W 00305 0056 114 032 238 208 033 00371 0000000000
2340. 1918N 06030W 00305 0056 115 033 240 198 034 00372 0000000000
2341 1916N 06031W 00303 0054 113 034 236 208 034 00368 0000000000
2341. 1915N 06032W 00305 0054 112 032 234 214 033 00370 0000000000
2342 1914N 06034W 00305 0053 111 032 236 210 033 00368 0000000000
2342. 1913N 06035W 00304 0052 110 031 238 204 032 00367 0000000000
2343 1911N 06036W 00307 0052 108 031 236 206 032 00370 0000000000
2343. 1910N 06038W 00303 0052 105 031 232 220 031 00366 0000000000
2344 1909N 06039W 00305 0052 106 031 232 218 032 00367 0000000000
2344. 1907N 06041W 00306 0052 104 032 230 228 032 00368 0000000000
2345 1906N 06042W 00303 0052 103 031 230 228 031 00365 0000000000
2345. 1905N 06043W 00298 0051 102 031 232 228 031 00359 0000000000
2346 1904N 06045W 00306 0050 103 030 230 228 031 00367 0000000000
2346. 1903N 06046W 00305 0050 104 031 232 224 031 00365 0000000000
2347 1901N 06047W 00305 0050 104 030 234 222 031 00365 0000000000

[ALhurricane]

If Chris avoids land, especially Hispaniola, it looks to have a good shot at steady strengthening. A look at the WV loop clears shows the upper low over the Bahamas is slowly retrograding west. As it is does so, it will only help to improve Chris' outflow and may even enhance it, depending on their location relative to each other.

So at this time it does appear the GFS has a good handle on the retrogression of the UL. There are plenty of times when the global models are too quick to retrograde an upper low and storms end up getting sheared to shreds. This does not look to be the case at this time.

If Chris avoids the big island, then I think it is fairly clear cut we have some type of hurricane threatening S FL and the GOM. Still a lot of time for change, but that is what I see at the moment.

First off, I hope everybody in the Puerto Rico and the surrounding islands fair the storm okay.

[WindRunner]

Headed in for another fix.

[superfly]

Chris has a good chance to be a cane by tomorrow. It's currently in a low shear environment and will be for the next few days.

[coriolis]

No. Hurricanes are nothing compared to midlatitude systems.

Would it be fair to say that there is considerable shear across a cold front? It would slide colder, dryer air into the bottom of the convection and then disrupt the convection from bottom to top. Is that getting close?

[BatzVI]

thanks AL.....I'm in St. Thomas, VI and hoping this thing doesn't do any weird turns to the west in the next 6-12 hours or so.....

[Damar91]

So basically those of us in Broward county and south should keep a close eye on this. I guess it all depends on when this more westerly turn occurs.

[wxmann_91]

No. Hurricanes are nothing compared to midlatitude systems.

Would it be fair to say that there is considerable shear across a cold front? It would slide colder, dryer air into the bottom of the convection and then disrupt the convection from bottom to top. Is that getting close?

That too. A midlatitude system is part of the synoptic picture. Hurricanes are more small scale.

[cycloneye]

570
WTNT33 KNHC 012359
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
800 PM AST TUE AUG 01 2006

...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS FROM CHRIS SPREADING OVER THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.6 WEST OR ABOUT 45
MILES...75 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BARBUDA.

CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER
THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS STILL INVESTIGATING CHRIS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MOST RECENT MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT
WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...18.3 N...61.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB