First of all I would like to say is that I am a bit suprised to see Chris blow up so quickly, therefore my southern track below the islands is NOT going to happen. Chris has been on a strengthening trend ever since last night and I don't see much in the way of that to stop. However, there is plenty of dry air around that could hinder that but, so far its been doing a great job of not sucking it in. My track is pretty much the same as the NHC and I think that is a good one for now. My intensity is higher as I feel like IF** this gets past the dry air and ULL and dosn't hit land its off to the races with Chris. First map is the Water Vapor... Notice the area that I have marked off with the white lines ahead of Chris. Once Chris gets into this area the ULL to its NW should provide excellent outflow and Chris may blow up really quickly. The Ull should weaken and back off to the SW. This to me is the most difficult part of the forecast.
Next is the windshear tendency map. Now, I always take these maps with a grain of salt but, I wanted to show it anyway. Notice that shear is really decreasing in front of Chris.
Next 2 maps are based on steering level winds for the pressures as follows. Made some tracking based on these maps as well as forecast models.
Last but, not least is my forecasted track and intensity...
