Where will Chris go?

[Grease Monkey]

I just spoke in great length with Joe Bastardi on the situation. Of course just way to early to say where it goes. But it sure looks like it will get in the GOM. It will all depend on the ridge to the north. The 18Z GFS which of course is a larger scale model doesn't really have it yet, although it's starting to show hints of it around Miami. We're both worried from SW Louisiana to Brownsville at this point. It will all depend on exactly how the upper high is positioned in the south next week.

So i guess also the fact that chris picked up in forward speed slightly might cause it to make a more northernly path?

[Windtalker1]

I just spoke in great length with Joe Bastardi on the situation. Of course just way to early to say where it goes. But it sure looks like it will get in the GOM. It will all depend on the ridge to the north. The 18Z GFS which of course is a larger scale model doesn't really have it yet, although it's starting to show hints of it around Miami. We're both worried from SW Louisiana to Brownsville at this point. It will all depend on exactly how the upper high is positioned in the south next week.

So i guess also the fact that chris picked up in forward speed slightly might cause it to make a more northernly path?

I would think so for the time being until that ull moves west and the high builds in.

[Extremeweatherguy]

JB's evening post also stated that he thinks this could be a Cat. 2 by the time it is entering the Gulf!

[PTrackerLA]

Seems like the more latitude Chris gains right now the less of a chance it hits Cuba which would be bad for the US.

[LightningInTheEye]

Actually, according to the 8 PM NHC forecast track, Chris is taking a more southerly track. Maybe this track is based on old data. I would like to see more of the computer models, especially the larger scale 18Z GFS model that the meteorologist in Dallas is looking at. I wonder if this same model was rather accurate in predicting Chris's future intensity, because most if not all of the models which the NHC is predicting their forecast track with were inaccurate with intensity forecasting. In fact, I think some of the models (i.e. GFS, not 18Z GFS, but plain old "GFS" if there is any difference between the two) were dissipating Chris entirely. If these same computer models make such errors in forecasting the strenght of a tropical system, what makes people think they will not make as drastic errors in forecasting the path of a tropical system?

Here is the current NHC track- http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... shtml?5day

I think the ULL north of Hispaniola may impact the future track of Chris since it may weaken the ridge to the north.

[ROCK]

JB's evening post also stated that he thinks this could be a Cat. 2 by the time it is entering the Gulf!

that wouldnt be good at all....Cat 2 then hits the LPC....you get the picture....

Man, I need one of those bomb emotioncons....

[bucman1]

As we all know this track will change 10 times before landfall.

I PERSONALLY LIKE THE MORE NORTERN TRACK.

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

Steve Lyons on TWC is talking about a more southerly track as well.

[bucman1]

Shows you what I know!

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

Huh?
Steve Lyons is NOT always right. Haha.

[Downdraft]

[quote="LightningInTheEye"] If these same computer models make such errors in forecasting the strenght of a tropical system, what makes people think they will not make as drastic errors in forecasting the path of a tropical system?

It may be an bad assumption on the part of some here and especially beginners to think that forecasting intensity can be done with the same precision and accuracy as track. The fact of the matter is there's more to it than ERC's to diminish strength and SST's to increase it. Intensity forecasting is years behind track forecasting. The examples of wrong estimates would make a list to long to post. A few recent examples would be Katrina and most definitely Wilma. So much more needs to be understood about the dynamics of the tropical cyclone before we will ever forecast with intensity with the same confidence we have in track. Chris beat the odds and the experts as did my personal favorite the mighty Epsilon last year.

[Grease Monkey]

It seems their forcasted tracks seem to be pretty accurate now, but it definitely seems impossible right now to predict intensities.

[Stratosphere747]

Take a deep breath, and wait until Wednesday evening/Thursday morning once the G-IV flight is run and its info is ingested into the models...

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

Take a deep breath, and wait until Wednesday evening/Thursday morning once the G-IV flight is run and its info is ingested into the models...

[takesdeepbreath]
[waits]

[ROCK]

Take a deep breath, and wait until Wednesday evening/Thursday morning once the G-IV flight is run and its info is ingested into the models...

good advice...

[HurricaneJim]

Stu Robinson at http://www.UKWeatherworld.co.uk is saying southerly track as well and a solid hit on Cuba. I have never known Stu to be wrong.

If I left tomorrow, I could be in Havana Thursday pm. Might even get to take in a Coup as well! That's two birds with one stone!

I'm banking on the GoM, however. If even a battered Chris gets in there, that water's gonna set it off like a bomb. Every one of them last year was a water hound. They followed the warm pockets like a tracking dog. Don't see why this year should be any different.

Jim
http://www.myspace.com/hurricanejim
http://www.myspace.com/stormchasetroopers
[/url]

[Grease Monkey]

Take a deep breath, and wait until Wednesday evening/Thursday morning once the G-IV flight is run and its info is ingested into the models...

Wait? Telling hurricane freaks to wait for an update, is like telling children to stay away from candy. It's not going to happen.

[HurricaneJim]

Ain't that the gods truth!

Jim
http://www.myspace.com/hurricanejim
http://www.myspace.com/stormchasetroopers

[Brent]

Take a deep breath, and wait until Wednesday evening/Thursday morning once the G-IV flight is run and its info is ingested into the models...

Wait? Telling hurricane freaks to wait for an update, is like telling children to stay away from candy. It's not going to happen.

Good point.

[Air Force Met]

Somewhere west of 90...my gut call right now.

JB is singing...in the words of Glen Campbell..."Galveston, Oh Galveston."

Given it is at 18N already...and still moving WNW...I think it will survive Hispanola. Cuba might ding it...but the GOM will build it back.