Tropical Storm Chris

[kenl01]

I hope this thing does smash into Hispaniola and dissipates. We don't need any more hurricanes in the GOM.

How would you like to pay 10 bucks per gallon for gas ?? No thanks ! The cost of living is already horrible everywhere and we're turining into a poor country with a huge incomprehensible debt

We don't need to become a third world country soon..........

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I thought this was serious discussion? I can't say what I went to say.

[gatorcane]

I hope this thing does smash into Hispaniola and dissipates. We don't need any more hurricanes in the GOM.

How would you like to pay 10 bucks per gallon for gas ?? No thanks ! The cost of living is already horrible everywhere and we're turining into a poor country with a huge incomprehensible debt

We don't need to become a third world country soon..........

I agree, just stay away from those rigs or we are going to see some really high gas prices....

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

I thought this was serious discussion? I can't say what I went to say.

Sure you can. I'd like to here what experienced S2Kers have to say.

[perk]

HouTexMetro i'm tired of hearing that Hispanolia is gonna kill Chris theory to.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This has developed a very well developed cdo...With outflow this has become very well stacked...I think this will be a hurricane by tomarrow morning. So Chris is looking good!

[wxmann_91]

I hope this thing does smash into Hispaniola and dissipates. We don't need any more hurricanes in the GOM.

How would you like to pay 10 bucks per gallon for gas ?? No thanks ! The cost of living is already horrible everywhere and we're turining into a poor country with a huge incomprehensible debt

We don't need to become a third world country soon..........

You know the best solution? Let it die and then recurve as a fish!

The people of Hispaniola do not need a TC to really ruin their entire life. I don't think high gas prices will impact a person as much as a death of a loved one.

[Regit]

I hope this thing does smash into Hispaniola and dissipates. We don't need any more hurricanes in the GOM.

How would you like to pay 10 bucks per gallon for gas ?? No thanks ! The cost of living is already horrible everywhere and we're turining into a poor country with a huge incomprehensible debt

We don't need to become a third world country soon..........

Well I DON'T want to to see this crash into Hispanola or anyone. I never wish ill on someone else just to make things easier on myself. And a major cane hurting production in the gulf would only send gas to about $3.50.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Here is what my thinking is which is serious discussion!

Looks like Chris is now in between the ULLs...This looks like the perfect set up with one Ull to the northeast and another to the northwest. Which the one to the northeast is helping to form a outflow jet...Shear looks alot weaker right now in this storm has fastly developed a cdo. I remember Isabel developed something like this. If the ULL to its west can keep backing away from it this could get very strong. The Enviroment is not perfect for a RIC yet but I would watch it. I think a track to the west-northwest through eastern PR...North of Hati/DR. At maybe 24 north. Then I think the ridge to the north will hold enough to pull it westward....I would watch this if you are in Southern Florida(Miami).

I think this could be a hurricane in 12 hours.

Now 60 mph
6 65 mph
12 75 mph(Possible)
24 80-85 mph
36 90 mph
48 100 mph
60 105 mph
72 110 mph

If the set up happens it could be stronger...Its a tricky forecast.

[Aquawind]

Deep convection refiring near the center..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[wxwonder12]

I do not have a trained eye. Is Chris jogging more to the north now or just appearing to??

[MississippiHurricane]

WOW!! 110 in 72 hours. Talk about a BIG problem

[vbhoutex]

I don't know if it's been mentioned or not but I saw the Accuwx track on the local news and their track goes all the way to TX/MX,but almost all the Gulf coast is in the cone.

I simply cannot see this track verifying. The system I (remember I am saying I) think would have to ride the periphery of the area of high pressure in the GOM. I can't see it traveling straight west and ignoring the High.

Last time I saw a model of the positioning of that high further down the road, it appeared to me that most of that track would verify if it rides the peripery of the ridge as expected. It is expected to dig far West into the GOM. Of course that could have changed since I saw any models earlier today.

[mempho]

I really don't think Chris has Katrina/Rita potential. The circulation is small and, thus, surge will only be an issue to a confined area. It has a minute chance of becoming a Charley-type storm and is more likely to be around a Cat 2/3 if (and that's a big if) it threads the needle and holds off the dry air. Also, I think hoping for a Hispaniola hit is terrible because these things often result in huge losses of life when they slam into third-world mountainous countries. Let's not hope for that. Let's hope for what I think is the best-case scenario which is a small circulation minimal hurricane that hits in an unpopulated area.

The worst-case scenario would probably be Hispanola hit or a Charley-type storm into either Mexico or the US. (Mexico would be worse).

This storm may cause a brief increase in oil prices but it certainly does not have the power to result in $10 gas prices and plunge the US into third-world country status. Believe me, the conflict in the Middle East is far more likely to do such a thing. This thing would have to become about the size of Katrina and make a long approach as a Cat 5 on Galveston for that to happen. Not impossible, but it's about 0.01% with this storm.

[max]

I do not have a trained eye. Is Chris jogging more to the north now or just appearing to??

I noticed the same thing but we have to wait a while to see if it was just a jog or s change in direction.

I am guessing it was just a jog or the center relocating. This can happen a lot with Storms.

[KatDaddy]

Hopefully NOT!

[bevgo]

I do not want to deal with a storm next week. I am going OOT and will not be back till Monday PM and would hate to have to evac that late. I can only hope that Chris does not strengthen too much, that sometinng in the atmosphere destroys him, or that all projections are wrong and he avoids the GOM. I am still shell shocked. No I do NOT want him to hit anyone else. I would not wish that on anyone.

[MississippiHurricane]

It does appear to be jogging north a bit... and it also looks like a more defined center of circulation with the convection getting tighter around it.

[Cyclenall]

New % chance that Tropical Storm Chris will become a:

Tropical Depression: 100% (guessed 50% the first time)
Tropical Storm: 100% (guessed 35% or something like that)
Hurricane: 80%
Major Hurricane: 40%

[max]

It does appear to be jogging north a bit... and it also looks like a more defined center of circulation with the convection getting tighter around it.

Yes and this could be great news for the islands!

I hope it misses the islands.