Tropical Storm Gilma in EPAC

[Cyclenall]

No surprise here once again since it looked great all day. Quite active still in the EPAC.

[senorpepr]

Links and satellite imagery for Eight (08E) is now available on the Storm2k Worldwide Tropical Update.

http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/
http://tropicalupdate.storm2k.org/epac.htm

[Andrew92]

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 010253
TCMEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082006
0300 UTC TUE AUG 01 2006

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 104.6W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 104.6W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 104.2W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 13.1N 106.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 13.7N 107.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.3N 109.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 55NE 40SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 14.7N 111.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 65NE 45SE 45SW 65NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 15.0N 115.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 65NE 45SE 45SW 65NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 16.1N 119.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 18.0N 122.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 104.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN

[Andrew92]

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 010252
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082006
800 PM PDT MON JUL 31 2006

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE SOUTHWEST OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION AND BECOME
SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED TO BE UPGRADED TO A 30 KT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY UNANIMOUS SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 30 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. THE DEPRESSION IS
CURRENTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR AND THE
CENTER IS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE EAST SIDE OF AN AREA OF
DEEP CONVECTION. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE SHEAR MAY RELAX A BIT
ALLOWING THE CYCLONE AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST...THE DEPRESSION
WILL BE NEARING COOLER WATERS AND A MORE STABLE AIR MASS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 280/9. THE CYCLONE IS
CURRENTLY BEING STEERED AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO BUT THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS
CREATING ERRATIC SHORT-TERM MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS
THE CYCLONE CONTINUING TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
DIRECTION THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A BROAD TROUGH
DEVELOPS OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. TOWARD THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. SOME
OF THE MODELS INDICATE THE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND INCREASED
RIDGING WILL DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE WHILE OTHER MODELS
SHOW THE TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES
THE TROUGH WILL LIFT SUFFICIENTLY NORTH TO ALLOW A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARDS THE WEST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/0300Z 12.7N 104.6W 30 KT
12HR VT 01/1200Z 13.1N 106.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 02/0000Z 13.7N 107.7W 40 KT
36HR VT 02/1200Z 14.3N 109.4W 45 KT
48HR VT 03/0000Z 14.7N 111.7W 50 KT
72HR VT 04/0000Z 15.0N 115.3W 50 KT
96HR VT 05/0000Z 16.1N 119.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 06/0000Z 18.0N 122.5W 40 KT

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN

[CrazyC83]

What a day! We get TD7-E/Fabio, TD8-E/Gilma? and TD3/Chris?...

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 010849
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082006
200 AM PDT TUE AUG 01 2006

SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO
BE SHEARED...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS ADJUSTED NORTH OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...MICROWAVE
IMAGERY AND A 0100 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS. GIVEN THIS ADJUSTMENT...THE
INITIAL MOTION IS SET AT A RATHER UNCERTAIN 305/7. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES AT 0600 UTC WERE 30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...THEREFORE THE
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS QUICKLY LOSE WHATEVER REPRESENTATION OF
THE DEPRESSION THEY HAVE. REGARDLESS...THE GUIDANCE SUITE SUGGESTS
THAT THE DEPRESSION SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE CENTERED ALONG
25N. THE GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A BREAK IN THE RIDGE AS AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST LATE IN THE WEEK.
AS A RESULT...MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE TURNS THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...AND THE
NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT IN THE INITIAL LOCATION THE TRACK FORECAST HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE PERIOD. THIS FORECAST ASSUMES THE
CYCLONE WILL REMAIN A DEEP SYSTEM AND FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THE
TROUGH. IF THE CYCLONE IS WEAKER THAN FORECASTED...A TRACK MORE
TOWARD THE WEST IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE PERIOD.

THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY RELAXED
EASTERLY SHEAR AFTER 24 HOURS...PROVIDING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR
INTENSIFICATION BEFORE THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO A LESS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY DRIER AIR AND COOLER SSTS AFTER 72
HOURS. THIS TREND IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST...WHICH
REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/0900Z 13.6N 104.6W 30 KT
12HR VT 01/1800Z 14.3N 105.6W 35 KT
24HR VT 02/0600Z 15.0N 106.8W 40 KT
36HR VT 02/1800Z 15.5N 108.3W 45 KT
48HR VT 03/0600Z 15.9N 109.8W 50 KT
72HR VT 04/0600Z 16.8N 113.2W 50 KT
96HR VT 05/0600Z 18.0N 117.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 06/0600Z 21.0N 119.5W 40 KT

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/STEWART

[P.K.]

This is now down as Gilma on the NRL page.

[cycloneye]

499
WTPZ23 KNHC 011437
TCMEP3
TROPICAL STORM GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082006
1500 UTC TUE AUG 01 2006

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 105.5W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 105.5W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 105.2W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 14.4N 106.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 15.1N 107.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 15.5N 109.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 15.7N 110.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 65NE 50SE 50SW 65NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 16.6N 114.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 18.0N 117.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 21.0N 119.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 105.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH

[JonathanBelles]

gilma? what kind of name is that? has anyone known sobebody by the name of gilma? and it rhymes with wilma!!!

[LAwxrgal]

gilma? what kind of name is that? has anyone known sobebody by the name of gilma? and it rhymes with wilma!!!

That looks like a combination of Gilbert and Wilma.... I knew a Gilda once....but I've never seen Gilma used anywhere..[/i]

[AnnularCane]

gilma? what kind of name is that? has anyone known sobebody by the name of gilma? and it rhymes with wilma!!!

That looks like a combination of Gilbert and Wilma.... I knew a Gilda once....but I've never seen Gilma used anywhere..[/i]

This must be Gilbert and Wilma's little girl.

[senorpepr]

Links and satellite imagery for TS Gilma (08E) is now available on the Storm2k Worldwide Tropical Update.

http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/
http://tropicalupdate.storm2k.org/epac.htm

[cycloneye]

WTPZ43 KNHC 020238
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082006
800 PM PDT TUE AUG 01 2006

AFTER A BURST OF CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY NEAR THE CENTER OF GILMA. EASTERLY
SHEAR IS SEEMINGLY PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION.
ALTHOUGH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED A
LITTLE...THE RECENT COLLAPSE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION SUGGESTS LITTLE
INTENSIFICATION HAS TAKEN PLACE. THEREFORE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL
REMAIN 35 KT. EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AND SHIPS/GFDL SHOW LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
STRENGTH. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS LOWERED JUST A LITTLE FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT NOT AS LOW AS GUIDANCE...YET.

GILMA IS STILL MOVING TO NORTHWEST SLOWLY.. 310/6. GLOBAL MODELS
HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER HANDLE ON THE INITIAL POSITION OF THE
CYCLONE THAN EARLIER AND THE LARGEST DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS
HOW LONG THE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WILL CONTINUE. THE UKMET SHOWS
THE CURRENT MOTION PERSISTING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...MOVING
TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGING OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA.
THE GFS SHOWS QUITE A DIFFERENT SOLUTION WITH A MIDDLE-LEVEL HIGH
ACTUALLY FORMING NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE... CAUSING A MORE
WESTWARD MOTION ALMOST IMMEDIATELY AND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE ECMWF IS IN BETWEEN THESE MODELS...SHOWING A MORE
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A NORTHWESTWARD
TURN TOWARD A DIGGING TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES BEYOND THREE DAYS. A COMPOSITE OF THESE THREE REASONABLE
MODEL SOLUTIONS IS USED FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST... WHICH IS A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0300Z 14.8N 106.0W 35 KT
12HR VT 02/1200Z 15.1N 106.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 03/0000Z 15.4N 108.1W 40 KT
36HR VT 03/1200Z 15.7N 109.7W 45 KT
48HR VT 04/0000Z 16.0N 111.5W 45 KT
72HR VT 05/0000Z 17.5N 115.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 06/0000Z 19.0N 117.0W 35 KT
120HR VT 07/0000Z 21.0N 119.5W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB

[HouTXmetro]

I Can't help it, but Gilma sounds like some big and fat unclean woman.

[bombarderoazul]

Not bad for the Epac, they had a busy July.

[Cyclenall]

I Can't help it, but Gilma sounds like some big and fat unclean woman.

I have to agree.

Gilma looks like a unclean tropical cyclone right now. Horrible looking on SAT and I think it's a depression right now.

[AnnularCane]

I Can't help it, but Gilma sounds like some big and fat unclean woman.

I have to agree.

Gilma looks like a unclean tropical cyclone right now. Horrible looking on SAT and I think it's a depression right now.

Awww, come on, she's dying. You shouldn't make fun of her.

[HURAKAN]

04/1200 UTC 17.5N 111.8W T1.5/1.5 GILMA -- East Pacific Ocean

Trying to make a comeback.

[WindRunner]

I guess it hasn't been said in here that both her and Fabio dissipated per the NHC at the 5pm EDT/2pm PDT advisories yesterday . . . so she maybe trying a comeback, but I think she's run out of room. SSTs are not in her favor . . .