Tropical Storm Chris

Aquawind · #1281 Postby **Aquawind** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 10:55 pm

Ohh man.. They lost Chris.. :lol:

#1282 Postby **Air Force Met** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 10:55 pm

Grease Monkey wrote:Well according to Steve Lyons on TWC 11pm update, it's expected to go north of the islands.

One thing you need to know about Steve, he is just going to tell you what the NHC is saying. So...it isn't actually according to Steve Lyons...it is according to the NHC track.

Now...I happen to know for a FACT that Lyons is an exceptional tropical forecaster. He was one of my profs at Texas A&M. However, in his capcity at TWC...he is only going to spew the party line.

The only way he would deviate is if the NHC got high on something and said Chris was going to move east. He might put a disclaimer in at that point.

#1283 Postby **ALhurricane** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 10:57 pm

Sorry about the dead link. Thanks ericinmia for posting the correct one.

#1284 Postby **ericinmia** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 10:57 pm

Why are so many models not initializing properly. On Sat. Chris looks pretty formidable. But ALL the models are initializing barely any semblance of a wave/TD?

The GFS, Nogaps, MM5, etc

ALhurricane wrote:Sorry about the dead link. Thanks ericinmia for posting the correct one.

No problem

i was just looking at something there, so i had the filler middle data available to fix it.

Scorpion · #1285 Postby **Scorpion** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 10:58 pm

Perhaps its the size? Or the pressure?

mobilebay · #1286 Postby **mobilebay** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 10:59 pm

ALhurricane wrote:Sorry about the dead link. Thanks ericinmia for posting the correct one.

I'm interested to hear what Dr. Bill Williams has to say about Chris. He will usually say what he's thinking instead of repeating the NHC.

#1287 Postby **fci** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 11:02 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
Grease Monkey wrote:Well according to Steve Lyons on TWC 11pm update, it's expected to go north of the islands.

One thing you need to know about Steve, he is just going to tell you what the NHC is saying. So...it isn't actually according to Steve Lyons...it is according to the NHC track.

Now...I happen to know for a FACT that Lyons is an exceptional tropical forecaster. He was one of my profs at Texas A&M. However, in his capcity at TWC...he is only going to spew the party line.

The only way he would deviate is if the NHC got high on something and said Chris was going to move east. He might put a disclaimer in at that point.

AFM:
Why does Steve only echo the NHC when he is such a terrific forecaster on his own?

I don't remember the late great John Hope just spewing the party line.

Not that the NHC is wrong very often but what good is having the forecasting talent and then just reading what the NHC says?

Some of the other TWC "on air talent" does that but I don't have a lot of regard for them as they just seem to be "readers"...

BUD · #1288 Postby **BUD** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 11:03 pm

Stratosphere747 wrote:
BUD wrote:I bet the CEO of the oil companys are hoping it comes into the GOM.I know they see $$$ now!!!Even if its a cat 2,3 there are going up.

Do you know the price of an offshore platform?

Thought so...

2-3billion depending on size and man power ect.

Aquawind · #1289 Postby **Aquawind** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 11:07 pm

GFS is clueless..
72hrs

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_072s.gif

Aquawind · #1290 Postby **Aquawind** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 11:09 pm

GFS 90 hours... nuttin much..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_090s.gif

#1291 Postby **jasons2k** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 11:09 pm

Aquawind wrote:GFS is clueless..
72hrs

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_072s.gif

yeah, a bit frustrating

#1292 Postby **LAwxrgal** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 11:10 pm

GFS=Good for S--- (you fill in the blanks)

cheezyWXguy · #1293 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 11:11 pm

i think im seeing an eye feature...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/wv-l.jpg

Cyclenall · #1294 Postby **Cyclenall** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 11:11 pm

I find it quite odd that the models aren't handling this system well at all. Something isn't quite right here.

Extremeweatherguy · #1295 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 11:12 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:i think im seeing an eye feature...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/wv-l.jpg

I think that may be an illusion (for now). I still think it has a few hours minimum (5+ days maximum) before we see an eye.

Grease Monkey · #1296 Postby **Grease Monkey** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 11:12 pm

LAwxrgal wrote:GFS=Good for S--- (you fill in the blanks)

I would like to buy a vowel.

#1297 Postby **ALhurricane** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 11:12 pm

Aquawind wrote:GFS is clueless..
72hrs

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_072s.gif

That is why initialization is so important. If it can't see it at 00 hours, it is going to be clueless for the entire run.

All you really ascertain from the model at that point is the synoptic evolution, which looks fairly straight forward with the ridge to its north. The big question is how strong the ridge will be and will it be enough to turn it west into the islands.

cheezyWXguy · #1298 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 11:14 pm

yeah, just wanted to make sure i wasnt going crazy...i think were gonna see another blow-up in about an hour or 2...then if that maintains we could see and eye feature begin to form

Stratosphere747 · #1299 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 11:14 pm

They just received their first fix earlier....

There was always going to be a deviation on their runs until an actual circulation point was established....

Aquawind · #1300 Postby **Aquawind** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 11:15 pm

I hear ya JB. I was hoping they were going to come around this run..so much for that..

Tropical Storm Chris

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