Tropical Storm Chris

[Extremeweatherguy]

Actually cheezyWXguy, after looking at it again; there is a chance you may be right. I guess we will see..

[Stratosphere747]

GFS is clueless..
72hrs

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_072s.gif

That is why initialization is so important. If it can't see it at 00 hours, it is going to be clueless for the entire run.

All you really ascertain from the model at that point is the synoptic evolution, which looks fairly straight forward with the ridge to its north. The big question is how strong the ridge will be and will it be enough to turn it west into the islands.

Great point....It would have been great to have the info of a G-IV mission right now....

[deltadog03]

i think this was mentioned before. Does anyone think that there might be a little warm spot in there??

[max]

Actually cheezyWXguy, after looking at it again; there is a chance you may be right. I guess we will see..

Wow if this is the case thats not good for those people

[Cyclenall]

I don't see an eye forming yet IMHO.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Hey max what is your thinking on track and strength?

[max]

Hey max what is your thinking on track and strength?

Well I am always wrong in my opinion lol. I think it will go just south of Miami but very close and should make it into the Gulf. From there is anyone's guess.

[jhamps10]

well new recon flight supposed to leave in 30 minutes... care to get opinions of what recon will find?

[max]

A stronger system in my opinion.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

37/85h data are 6 hours old. So got to wait for another pass before we can see the inner parts of this system. But cimss doe's show 2 out of 3 points that the center is in the center of the cdo. In that hole could be a eye? But I will need to watch it some more.

In max I agree that its more likely to go north.

[mobilebay]

A stronger system in my opinion.

I agree. I think the pressure will be down to about 997, and winds of near 70MPH at the surface.

[gatorcane]

Looks like Chris took a fairly large wobble today that may mean it will skirt around the Leeward islands - amazing how these storms know how to do that....

I would say that if the models are still uncertain we can't peg it through the FL straits right now.....I think it is highly unlikely it will move into the big islands also - you just don't see storms do that where Chris is located now...

[BUD]

I hope the models get a grip on this thing.

[max]

I hope the models get a grip on this thing.

What can happen if they don't?

[jhamps10]

agreed to that, the only way well know is to have the plane take-off and get some obs.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

They will. But if they don't you just have to use your head.

[Derek Ortt]

It would still be an easy forecast, even if the models cannot depict the storm (which they are depicting the storm, just not very well on the majority of the internet plots)

Te ridging should remain in tact, leading to a continuation of the WNW track

[BUD]

I hope the models get a grip on this thing.

What can happen if they don't?

They will,but when is the and it seems they are all "out to lunch" right now.

[gatorcane]

One thing to point out before I sign off tonight - watch the diurnal blowup possible later tonight - I think it is possible we will see some deeper convection when we wake up tomorrow EST. Good luck

[max]

I hope the models get a grip on this thing.

What can happen if they don't?

They will,but when is the and it seems they are all "out to lunch" right now.

Would it be unprecedented if they never did? I mean it could happen you never know what mother nature may throw at you.