Outflow Improving Significantly...

[MWatkins]

Not sure if I can start a new topic on this but what the heck.

Take a look at the latest water vapor imagery:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-wv.html

Notice the shunted area...earlier in the NW quad...has moved on off to the SW. Outer bands have pushed out to the NW and convection is building around the center on the eastern semicircle. The overall envelope is much more circular than it was 12 hours ago.

Looks like Chris has established a new outer envelope and is now trying to get the inner core put together.

If this trend continues it won't be very long before we see a hurricane...

Please note I am not suggesting anything like a major cane right now...but the structure of the system continues to improve tonight.

MW

[deltadog03]

i agree with you. At first I thought the dry air was coming in but, now i think this is helping.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I agree this thing overall is becoming much better organized. In even showing signs of forming a eyewall. Even with the fact the convection is not as deep. Watch that eyewall like feature wrap around.

[AJC3]

Not sure if I can start a new topic on this but what the heck.

Take a look at the latest water vapor imagery:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-wv.html

Notice the shunted area...earlier in the NW quad...has moved on off to the SW. Outer bands have pushed out to the NW and convection is building around the center on the eastern semicircle. The overall envelope is much more circular than it was 12 hours ago.

Looks like Chris has established a new outer envelope and is now trying to get the inner core put together.

If this trend continues it won't be very long before we see a hurricane...

Please note I am not suggesting anything like a major cane right now...but the structure of the system continues to improve tonight.

MW

Mike,

This goes in line with what a consensus (UKM/GFS) of the model guidance was suggesting - that the 250MB pattern would become much more favorable for strengthening. In fact, the only possible factors now that I can see that would inhibit significant strenghtening would be:

1) relatively dry air surrounding Chris,

2) Potential interaction with Hispanola (unlikely IMO)

3) Getting too close to either the lead or the trailing TUTT low (could happen but even if it was to occur, it would probably be delayed until 36-48 hours from now at the earliest)

my 2*10E-8 cents

[T-man]

Are the conditions nearby still slightly favorable for developement, and what are the chances of the ridge building in and pushing this storm into the mountains?

Nevermind, thanks AJC

[Praxus]

Yeah, I just finished looking at the latest sat pics, and was thinking that while the cloud tops have warmed a bit, the outflow had increased...visually its looking like a little cane right now..

[mobilebay]

I agree with you Mike, I think Chris is looking mighty healthy. With all the new rules and regulations I'm scared to post half the time.

[wxmann_91]

I agree with you Mike, I think Chris is looking mighty healthy. With all the new rules and regulations I'm scared to post half the time.

Same here almost! But I think if we all post scientific observations instead of Woohoo! or I think this is strengthening! then it will be no problem. No offense meant to the mods or rules...

With this new development, I'd expect recon to find lower pressures but the windspeed shouldn't be all that different, considering the lack of deep convection.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Not sure if I can start a new topic on this but what the heck.

Take a look at the latest water vapor imagery:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-wv.html

Notice the shunted area...earlier in the NW quad...has moved on off to the SW. Outer bands have pushed out to the NW and convection is building around the center on the eastern semicircle. The overall envelope is much more circular than it was 12 hours ago.

Looks like Chris has established a new outer envelope and is now trying to get the inner core put together.

If this trend continues it won't be very long before we see a hurricane...

Please note I am not suggesting anything like a major cane right now...but the structure of the system continues to improve tonight.

MW

Mike,

This goes in line with what a consensus (UKM/GFS) of the model guidance was suggesting - that the 250MB pattern would become much more favorable for strengthening. In fact, the only possible factors now that I can see that would inhibit significant strenghtening would be:

1) relatively dry air surrounding Chris,

2) Potential interaction with Hispanola (unlikely IMO)

3) Getting too close to either the lead or the trailing TUTT low (could happen but even if it was to occur, it would probably be delayed until 36-48 hours from now at the earliest)

my 2*10E-8 cents

ACJ3 I agree...This is pretty much my thinking to...I think as the eyewall forms the central core will wash the dry air out...In also it should stair step in be a little north of the nhc track.

[Brent]

Hurricane Chris is defintely coming...

[Grease Monkey]

If not already here.

[southerngale]

I agree with you Mike, I think Chris is looking mighty healthy. With all the new rules and regulations I'm scared to post half the time.

Why? We've actually relaxed them. We'd like to get away from the longer threads where everyone feels like they have to post in this "official" thread or that "official" thread. If you think something is significant enough for a new thread, by all means, start one!
Personally, I can't stand wading through those long threads and would prefer to see more threads with more specific titles and then everyone can read exactly what they're interested in.

I posted this in a thread yesterday:

Actually, we're trying to get away from the whole "official" thread thing anyway. While some members may prefer one gigantic thread, we get more feedback from those who don't. We have to consider and remember that most people don't sit on here for hours and come on a few times a day (or more, or less) to catch up and get some quick info about a particular system. Weeding through long threads hinder that, and catchy, informative subject titles help members choose exactly what they want to read about.

Here's a post I made about a week ago, regarding this subject. It's about Atlantic waves because that was the thread it was posted in. It was then added to the rules that Aquawind posted. I guess it was overlooked by everyone.

You can continue to post in this thread if you'd like, but we've decided not to have an "official" thread for all Atlantic waves. Although some may like it this way, many members don't want to read an entire thread about all waves and would prefer to see a thread title that captures their attention about a particular wave. Also, we'd really like to get away from everyone thinking they have to post in this "official" thread, etc. If you think it is significant enough for a new thread, it probably is. Everyone doesn't read every post in every thread, so let's also not jump on people who happen to repeat something that someone else already said. Obvious duplicate threads may still be locked though.

[mobilebay]

I agree with you Mike, I think Chris is looking mighty healthy. With all the new rules and regulations I'm scared to post half the time.

Why? We've actually relaxed them. We'd like to get away from the longer threads where everyone feels like they have to post in this "official" thread or that "official" thread. If you think something is significant enough for a new thread, by all means, start one!
Personally, I can't stand wading through those long threads and would prefer to see more threads with more specific titles and then everyone can read exactly what they're interested in.

I posted this in a thread yesterday:

Actually, we're trying to get away from the whole "official" thread thing anyway. While some members may prefer one gigantic thread, we get more feedback from those who don't. We have to consider and remember that most people don't sit on here for hours and come on a few times a day (or more, or less) to catch up and get some quick info about a particular system. Weeding through long threads hinder that, and catchy, informative subject titles help members choose exactly what they want to read about.

Here's a post I made about a week ago, regarding this subject. It's about Atlantic waves because that was the thread it was posted in. It was then added to the rules that Aquawind posted. I guess it was overlooked by everyone.

You can continue to post in this thread if you'd like, but we've decided not to have an "official" thread for all Atlantic waves. Although some may like it this way, many members don't want to read an entire thread about all waves and would prefer to see a thread title that captures their attention about a particular wave. Also, we'd really like to get away from everyone thinking they have to post in this "official" thread, etc. If you think it is significant enough for a new thread, it probably is. Everyone doesn't read every post in every thread, so let's also not jump on people who happen to repeat something that someone else already said. Obvious duplicate threads may still be locked though.

Oh OK. I just don't want to get in trouble. I love posting here.

[MWatkins]

Not sure if I can start a new topic on this but what the heck.

Take a look at the latest water vapor imagery:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-wv.html

Notice the shunted area...earlier in the NW quad...has moved on off to the SW. Outer bands have pushed out to the NW and convection is building around the center on the eastern semicircle. The overall envelope is much more circular than it was 12 hours ago.

Looks like Chris has established a new outer envelope and is now trying to get the inner core put together.

If this trend continues it won't be very long before we see a hurricane...

Please note I am not suggesting anything like a major cane right now...but the structure of the system continues to improve tonight.

MW

Mike,

This goes in line with what a consensus (UKM/GFS) of the model guidance was suggesting - that the 250MB pattern would become much more favorable for strengthening. In fact, the only possible factors now that I can see that would inhibit significant strenghtening would be:

1) relatively dry air surrounding Chris,

2) Potential interaction with Hispanola (unlikely IMO)

3) Getting too close to either the lead or the trailing TUTT low (could happen but even if it was to occur, it would probably be delayed until 36-48 hours from now at the earliest)

my 2*10E-8 cents

That's less than 2 cents...right?

Yep...you have been screaming out the fact that the UKIE has been very consistent with the evolution of the upper pattern for a few runs in a row and you were right on it...and that idea is playing out tonight.

Once again...demonstrating that fitting synoptic and modeling pieces together is an art and science...and not just computer science.

Looks like you are going to be busy up there for the next few days...

MW

[deltadog03]

honestly this is one of the best places for a TC to be in. You have an incoming TUTT from the NNE, and just SW of an ULL. The reason why the outflow is so good on the eastern and southern quads is because of the ventilation from the incoming TUTT. I do believe that Chris is about to hit the effects of the ULL therefore outflow will be even better. RIC could be close