Tropical Storm Chris

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dwg71
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#1401 Postby dwg71 » Wed Aug 02, 2006 2:46 am

In the past hour and a half the max flight level winds are around 52, which is 40kts or so.
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clfenwi
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#1402 Postby clfenwi » Wed Aug 02, 2006 2:48 am

OB from the northeast corner of the storm... pass of the northeast quadrant underway...

Storm Name: CHRIS (03L)
Mission Number: 02
Flight ID: AF308
Observation Number: 13
Time: 0728Z
Latitude: 19.4°N
Longitude: 61.8°W
Turbulence: Light occasional moderate
Flight condition: In & out of clouds
Pressure Altitude: 5000 feet
Flight level wind: SE (130°) @ 41 mph
Temperature: 61°F
Dewpoint: 61°F
Weather: Thunderstorm
850mb height: 5100 feet
Surface Wind: N/A
Remarks: None
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#1403 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Aug 02, 2006 2:49 am

272
SXXX50 KNHC 020747
AF308 0203A CHRIS HDOB 18 KNHC
0735. 1913N 06204W 01530 0079 132 042 150 150 043 01650 0000000000
0736 1912N 06205W 01520 0075 133 044 164 158 044 01636 0000000000
0736. 1910N 06206W 01525 0074 129 042 162 162 043 01640 0000000000
0737 1909N 06207W 01531 0073 130 044 154 154 045 01645 0000000000
0737. 1908N 06209W 01522 0071 134 046 160 160 048 01634 0000000000
0738 1907N 06210W 01530 0069 130 046 158 158 046 01639 0000000000
0738. 1906N 06211W 01528 0066 130 046 154 154 049 01635 0000000000
0739 1905N 06212W 01526 0063 127 049 158 158 050 01630 0000000000
0739. 1903N 06213W 01531 0059 125 049 160 160 050 01631 0000000000
0740 1902N 06215W 01524 0055 126 052 160 160 053 01619 0000000000
0740. 1901N 06216W 01527 0050 129 054 160 160 055 01618 0000000000
0741 1900N 06217W 01528 0044 129 057 166 164 058 01613 0000000000
0741. 1859N 06218W 01527 0038 130 060 168 168 061 01605 0000000000
0742 1858N 06220W 01527 0030 130 059 168 168 062 01598 0000000000
0742. 1856N 06221W 01527 0021 127 054 160 160 056 01589 0000000000
0743 1855N 06222W 01530 0014 124 048 166 166 050 01585 0000000000
0743. 1854N 06223W 01524 0007 120 041 172 172 044 01571 0000000000
0744 1853N 06225W 01530 0003 108 036 168 168 037 01573 0000000000
0744. 1851N 06226W 01523 5005 099 028 164 164 029 01559 0000000000
0745 1850N 06226W 01526 5010 081 021 176 176 022 01556 0000000000
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#1404 Postby clfenwi » Wed Aug 02, 2006 2:50 am

0742 1858N 06220W 01527 0030 130 059 168 168 062 01598 0000000000

Match of previous peak from the earlier mission.


EDIT: or not :( (64 knots was the previous peak)

ANOTHER EDIT: Although, the 30 sec avg of 60 knots previous to that ob

0741. 1859N 06218W 01527 0038 130 060 168 168 061 01605 0000000000

does match the peak 30 sec recorded in the previous mission :)
Last edited by clfenwi on Wed Aug 02, 2006 2:55 am, edited 2 times in total.
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mobilebay
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#1405 Postby mobilebay » Wed Aug 02, 2006 2:51 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:272
SXXX50 KNHC 020747
AF308 0203A CHRIS HDOB 18 KNHC
0735. 1913N 06204W 01530 0079 132 042 150 150 043 01650 0000000000
0736 1912N 06205W 01520 0075 133 044 164 158 044 01636 0000000000
0736. 1910N 06206W 01525 0074 129 042 162 162 043 01640 0000000000
0737 1909N 06207W 01531 0073 130 044 154 154 045 01645 0000000000
0737. 1908N 06209W 01522 0071 134 046 160 160 048 01634 0000000000
0738 1907N 06210W 01530 0069 130 046 158 158 046 01639 0000000000
0738. 1906N 06211W 01528 0066 130 046 154 154 049 01635 0000000000
0739 1905N 06212W 01526 0063 127 049 158 158 050 01630 0000000000
0739. 1903N 06213W 01531 0059 125 049 160 160 050 01631 0000000000
0740 1902N 06215W 01524 0055 126 052 160 160 053 01619 0000000000
0740. 1901N 06216W 01527 0050 129 054 160 160 055 01618 0000000000
0741 1900N 06217W 01528 0044 129 057 166 164 058 01613 0000000000
0741. 1859N 06218W 01527 0038 130 060 168 168 061 01605 0000000000
0742 1858N 06220W 01527 0030 130 059 168 168 062 01598 0000000000
0742. 1856N 06221W 01527 0021 127 054 160 160 056 01589 0000000000
0743 1855N 06222W 01530 0014 124 048 166 166 050 01585 0000000000
0743. 1854N 06223W 01524 0007 120 041 172 172 044 01571 0000000000
0744 1853N 06225W 01530 0003 108 036 168 168 037 01573 0000000000
0744. 1851N 06226W 01523 5005 099 028 164 164 029 01559 0000000000
0745 1850N 06226W 01526 5010 081 021 176 176 022 01556 0000000000

62 Knots. highest so far.
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#1406 Postby dwg71 » Wed Aug 02, 2006 2:51 am

theres a 62
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#1407 Postby dwg71 » Wed Aug 02, 2006 2:51 am

50kts surface right? no change from 10pm
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#1408 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Aug 02, 2006 2:57 am

SXXX50 KNHC 020757
AF308 0203A CHRIS HDOB 19 KNHC
0745. 1848N 06227W 01529 5012 071 014 188 184 016 01558 0000000000
0746 1846N 06226W 01526 5013 030 007 198 178 008 01553 0000000000
0746. 1845N 06226W 01524 5007 289 004 196 182 006 01558 0000000000
0747 1843N 06226W 01528 5004 279 010 190 182 012 01565 0000000000
0747. 1842N 06228W 01528 0001 295 014 192 172 015 01570 0000000000
0748 1841N 06229W 01523 0006 296 023 178 178 026 01570 0000000000
0748. 1840N 06230W 01530 0012 288 028 178 178 029 01583 0000000000
0749 1839N 06231W 01526 0018 293 028 174 174 029 01585 0000000000
0749. 1838N 06232W 01525 0023 291 032 170 170 033 01589 0000000000
0750 1837N 06233W 01529 0029 286 029 166 166 030 01599 0000000000
0750. 1836N 06235W 01526 0033 286 028 164 164 029 01600 0000000000
0751 1835N 06236W 01527 0037 285 026 162 162 027 01605 0000000000
0751. 1834N 06237W 01525 0041 287 030 166 166 031 01607 0000000000
0752 1833N 06238W 01529 0045 285 028 164 164 029 01615 0000000000
0752. 1832N 06239W 01523 0048 288 024 164 164 026 01612 0000000000
0753 1831N 06240W 01530 0052 293 026 160 160 027 01623 0000000000
0753. 1829N 06242W 01528 0053 296 027 162 162 027 01622 0000000000
0754 1828N 06243W 01524 0055 300 025 160 160 027 01620 0000000000
0754. 1827N 06244W 01529 0057 301 022 160 160 022 01628 0000000000
0755 1826N 06245W 01527 0060 302 022 162 162 023 01628 0000000000
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#1409 Postby clfenwi » Wed Aug 02, 2006 2:58 am

dwg71 wrote:50kts surface right? no change from 10pm


Yep, 62 *.8= 49.6 ...rounds up to 50 of course. So my assessment of steady state earlier seems to have been validated.
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#1410 Postby mobilebay » Wed Aug 02, 2006 2:58 am

000
URNT12 KNHC 020754
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 02/07:45:50Z
B. 18 deg 46 min N
062 deg 26 min W
C. 850 mb 1441 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 131 deg 062 kt
G. 030 deg 014 nm
H. 1002 mb
I. 17 C/ 1524 m
J. 20 C/ 1528 m
K. 18 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.03 / 2 nm
P. AF308 0203A CHRIS OB 15
MAX FL WIND 62 KT NE QUAD 07:41:30 Z
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dwsqos2

#1411 Postby dwsqos2 » Wed Aug 02, 2006 2:59 am

773
UZNT13 KNHC 020736
XXAA 52078 99194 70618 04391 99015 26829 ///// 00135 25424 10541
92817 21226 12039 85548 17803 13037 88999 77999
31313 09608 80728
61616 AF308 0203A CHRIS OB 14
62626 SPL 1946N06180W 0730 LST WND 015 MBL WND 10541 AEV 20604 DL
M WND 11540 013882 WL150 10541 090 =
XXBB 52078 99194 70618 04391 00015 26829 11961 22611 22914 21028
33850 17803 44843 17000
21212 00015 ///// 11013 10538 22005 10041 33984 10540 44970 11043
55923 12039 66905 12542 77882 12538 88843 13037
31313 09608 80728
61616 AF308 0203A CHRIS OB 14
62626 SPL 1946N06180W 0730 LST WND 015 MBL WND 10541 AEV 20604 DL
M WND 11540 013882 WL150 10541 090 =
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dwsqos2

#1412 Postby dwsqos2 » Wed Aug 02, 2006 3:02 am

071
UZNT13 KNHC 020756
XXAA 52088 99188 70624 04382 99002 26406 22511 00014 26406 22511
92702 23415 20007 85441 21218 31503 88999 77999
31313 09608 80746
61616 AF308 0203A CHRIS OB 16
62626 EYE SPL 1875N06243W 0748 MBL WND 22009 AEV 20604 DLM WND 21
006 001855 WL150 23010 081 =
XXBB 52088 99188 70624 04382 00002 26406 11850 21218 22843 20412
21212 00002 22511 11976 22012 22936 19506 33906 20008 44870 00000
55855 31002 66843 31504
31313 09608 80746
61616 AF308 0203A CHRIS OB 16
62626 EYE SPL 1875N06243W 0748 MBL WND 22009 AEV 20604 DLM WND 21
006 001855 WL150 23010 081 =
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#1413 Postby mobilebay » Wed Aug 02, 2006 3:05 am

Chris's center showing up nicely on san Juan long range radar. Un-check the legend at the bottom to see the center.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 0&loop=yes
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#1414 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Aug 02, 2006 3:09 am

:uarrow: 244
SXXX50 KNHC 020807
AF308 0203A CHRIS HDOB 20 KNHC
0755. 1825N 06247W 01527 0062 304 022 160 160 023 01630 0000000000
0756 1824N 06248W 01527 0063 310 021 154 154 021 01631 0000000000
0756. 1823N 06249W 01528 0063 298 018 140 140 019 01632 0000000000
0757 1822N 06250W 01525 0065 303 019 156 156 020 01631 0000000000
0757. 1821N 06251W 01529 0068 307 018 158 158 018 01638 0000000000
0758 1819N 06253W 01525 0068 306 016 164 164 018 01634 0000000000
0758. 1818N 06254W 01525 0069 310 015 166 166 016 01635 0000000000
0759 1817N 06255W 01527 0070 311 017 164 164 018 01638 0000000000
0759. 1816N 06256W 01525 0070 306 018 164 164 019 01637 0000000000
0800 1815N 06258W 01528 0074 305 019 164 156 020 01643 0000000000
0800. 1813N 06258W 01531 0077 301 019 160 160 020 01649 0000000000
0801 1813N 06256W 01524 0074 293 020 162 162 020 01638 0000000000
0801. 1814N 06254W 01527 0072 284 020 166 162 020 01640 0000000000
0802 1814N 06252W 01525 0072 281 018 166 164 018 01637 0000000000
0802. 1814N 06250W 01529 0071 280 020 166 156 020 01641 0000000000
0803 1814N 06249W 01527 0070 276 020 166 162 020 01638 0000000000
0803. 1814N 06247W 01527 0069 276 020 166 166 020 01637 0000000000
0804 1815N 06245W 01526 0069 274 020 164 164 021 01635 0000000000
0804. 1815N 06243W 01528 0068 267 022 166 166 023 01637 0000000000
0805 1815N 06241W 01526 0067 258 022 166 162 023 01634 0000000000
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#1415 Postby mobilebay » Wed Aug 02, 2006 3:11 am

Boy that West quad is weak as branch water.
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#1416 Postby Grease Monkey » Wed Aug 02, 2006 3:17 am

Probably because of the dry air.
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#1417 Postby mobilebay » Wed Aug 02, 2006 3:19 am

607
SXXX50 KNHC 020817
AF308 0203A CHRIS HDOB 21 KNHC
0805. 1815N 06239W 01526 0067 254 023 164 164 025 01634 0000000000
0806 1815N 06237W 01530 0067 246 028 158 158 029 01638 0000000000
0806. 1815N 06235W 01526 0067 246 028 160 160 029 01633 0000000000
0807 1816N 06233W 01525 0066 240 030 160 160 031 01632 0000000000
0807. 1816N 06231W 01529 0066 231 031 162 162 032 01637 0000000000
0808 1816N 06229W 01526 0066 227 032 160 160 032 01633 0000000000
0808. 1816N 06227W 01527 0066 227 032 162 162 032 01634 0000000000
0809 1816N 06225W 01527 0068 216 035 162 162 035 01635 0000000000
0809. 1816N 06224W 01528 0068 220 033 170 164 034 01637 0000000000
0810 1817N 06222W 01526 0068 226 033 170 164 033 01635 0000000000
0810. 1817N 06220W 01527 0069 222 033 166 166 035 01637 0000000000
0811 1817N 06218W 01527 0069 218 031 164 160 031 01637 0000000000
0811. 1817N 06216W 01527 0070 217 031 164 156 031 01638 0000000000
0812 1817N 06214W 01526 0071 216 031 164 154 033 01638 0000000000
0812. 1817N 06212W 01527 0072 209 031 160 160 033 01639 0000000000
0813 1818N 06210W 01529 0072 207 031 162 162 031 01642 0000000000
0813. 1818N 06208W 01525 0073 205 031 162 162 032 01639 0000000000
0814 1818N 06207W 01529 0073 206 033 156 156 034 01643 0000000000
0814. 1818N 06205W 01525 0073 204 035 162 162 035 01639 0000000000
0815 1818N 06203W 01526 0075 202 034 166 158 035 01642 0000000000
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#1418 Postby mobilebay » Wed Aug 02, 2006 3:28 am

752
SXXX50 KNHC 020827
AF308 0203A CHRIS HDOB 22 KNHC
0815. 1818N 06201W 01529 0080 199 034 166 156 035 01650 0000000000
0816 1820N 06200W 01527 0081 197 034 168 150 035 01649 0000000000
0816. 1821N 06202W 01523 0074 195 031 166 160 032 01638 0000000000
0817 1822N 06203W 01530 0074 194 031 164 164 031 01645 0000000000
0817. 1824N 06204W 01525 0072 190 031 160 160 031 01638 0000000000
0818 1825N 06206W 01528 0071 188 031 160 160 031 01640 0000000000
0818. 1826N 06207W 01526 0070 189 030 160 160 031 01637 0000000000
0819 1827N 06208W 01525 0069 189 033 160 158 034 01635 0000000000
0819. 1829N 06210W 01528 0067 193 036 158 158 037 01635 0000000000
0820 1830N 06211W 01528 0065 191 037 154 154 038 01634 0000000000
0820. 1831N 06212W 01526 0062 193 036 148 148 037 01628 0000000000
0821 1833N 06214W 01528 0060 199 036 136 136 036 01630 0000000000
0821. 1834N 06215W 01523 0056 192 040 126 126 041 01619 0000000000
0822 1835N 06216W 01533 0053 189 038 134 134 040 01627 0000000000
0822. 1836N 06218W 01525 0054 199 035 142 142 037 01620 0000000000
0823 1838N 06219W 01525 0048 200 040 134 134 041 01614 0000000000
0823. 1839N 06220W 01527 0042 194 042 132 132 043 01610 0000000100
0824 1840N 06222W 01529 0037 196 044 138 138 045 01608 0000000000
0824. 1841N 06223W 01528 0032 202 046 144 144 047 01600 0000000000
0825 1843N 06224W 01525 0026 206 044 150 150 044 01592 0000000000
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#1419 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Aug 02, 2006 3:29 am

There keep it at 60 mph.
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#1420 Postby mobilebay » Wed Aug 02, 2006 3:32 am

300
WTNT23 KNHC 020828
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
0900 UTC WED AUG 02 2006

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ANGUILLA...ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN...AND
ALSO FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...
ST. KITTS...AND NEVIS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 62.6W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 65NE 50SE 25SW 35NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 62.6W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 62.2W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 19.4N 64.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 10SW 15NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 20.0N 65.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.6N 67.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 21.2N 69.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 22.2N 73.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 23.3N 77.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 24.5N 82.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 62.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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