Tropical Storm Chris

[mobilebay]

007
WTNT33 KNHC 020828
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
500 AM AST WED AUG 02 2006

...CHRIS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT SKIRTS THE NORTHERNMOST
LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS DISCONTINUED...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ANGUILLA...ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN...AND
ALSO FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...
ST. KITTS...AND NEVIS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.6 WEST OR ABOUT 60
MILES... 95 KM...NORTHEAST OF ST. MARTIN.

CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL NORTH OF THE
NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING...AND REMAIN NORTH
OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...SOME OF THE STRONG RAIN BANDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF CHRIS
MAY AFFECT PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND CHRIS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR EARLY THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES...120 KM
...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
...AND PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8
INCHES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THURSDAY.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...18.8 N...62.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[ericinmia]

interesting....

it appears stewart bumped the track north some in the extended outlook... and now Chris is going 300 degrees. All the forecasters that were claiming the Hispanola brush... that doesn't look to plausible. Although anything can and will happen...

[mobilebay]

203
SXXX50 KNHC 020837
AF308 0203A CHRIS HDOB 23 KNHC
0825. 1844N 06226W 01528 0018 208 042 154 154 044 01587 0000000000
0826 1845N 06227W 01531 0014 208 032 172 172 036 01586 0000000000
0826. 1846N 06228W 01517 0012 207 022 170 170 024 01570 0000000000
0827 1847N 06230W 01528 0007 209 019 174 174 020 01576 0000000000
0827. 1847N 06231W 01533 0003 207 017 172 172 019 01577 0000000000
0828 1848N 06233W 01531 5001 214 014 176 176 015 01571 0000000000
0828. 1849N 06234W 01528 5004 191 012 192 192 014 01564 0000000000
0829 1849N 06236W 01528 5005 130 005 194 184 011 01563 0000000000
0829. 1850N 06238W 01522 5004 036 016 202 170 020 01559 0000000000
0830 1851N 06239W 01529 5004 037 022 204 170 023 01565 0000000000
0830. 1852N 06240W 01519 5002 039 029 196 170 032 01558 0000000000
0831 1853N 06242W 01528 0002 043 033 194 172 035 01571 0000000000
0831. 1854N 06243W 01526 0008 051 040 208 172 042 01574 0000000000
0832 1855N 06244W 01522 0014 054 041 214 170 043 01577 0000000000
0832. 1857N 06245W 01524 0020 055 046 200 162 049 01584 0000000000
0833 1858N 06247W 01527 0025 058 053 194 150 055 01593 0000000000
0833. 1859N 06248W 01521 0031 062 055 190 152 056 01592 0000000000
0834 1900N 06249W 01524 0037 065 054 188 156 054 01602 0000000000
0834. 1901N 06250W 01523 0041 063 049 184 160 050 01605 0000000000
0835 1903N 06252W 01524 0045 063 050 176 162 052 01610 0000000000

[M_0331]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/radar.php ... 1&loop=yes
Puerto Rico/USVI shows eye

[Toadstool]

Chris's center showing up nicely on san Juan long range radar. Un-check the legend at the bottom to see the center.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 0&loop=yes

Wow, that really is well defined!

[TampaFl]

Track has shifted north!!. Chris will be over/near Key West Monday morning. Of course this will change again as time goes on..

[dwsqos2]

661
URNT12 KNHC 020836
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 02/08:28:40Z
B. 18 deg 49 min N
062 deg 36 min W
C. 850 mb 1448 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 202 deg 047 kt
G. 121 deg 015 nm
H. 1003 mb
I. 15 C/ 1527 m
J. 20 C/ 1529 m
K. 19 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF308 0203A CHRIS OB 20
MAX FL WIND 62 KT NE QUAD 07:41:30 Z

[dwsqos2]

061
UZNT13 KNHC 020841
XXAA 52088 99188 70626 04382 99003 27412 29011 00023 27413 29010
92713 24222 31504 85453 21427 04506 88999 77999
31313 09608 80828
61616 AF308 0203A CHRIS OB 21
62626 EYE SPL 1882N06261W 0830 MBL WND 30011 AEV 20604 DLM WND 30
505 002855 WL150 30509 080 =
XXBB 52088 99188 70626 04382 00003 27412 11850 21427 22843 21024
21212 00003 29011 11994 31008 22963 29013 33938 30010 44906 36000
55884 08505 66869 07001 77855 06003 88843 04011
31313 09608 80828
61616 AF308 0203A CHRIS OB 21
62626 EYE SPL 1882N06261W 0830 MBL WND 30011 AEV 20604 DLM WND 30
505 002855 WL150 30509 080 =

[Damar91]

Just as I excpected it to. The longer it goes without making a turn to the west, the more nervous us folks in south florida are going to be.

[clfenwi]

0833. 1859N 06248W 01521 0031 062 055 190 152 056 01592 0000000000

56 knots at flight level in the northwest quad is 14 knots higher than what was found in that quad on the previous pass (about two hours ago).

[TampaFl]

interesting....

it appears stewart bumped the track north some in the extended outlook... and now Chris is going 300 degrees. All the forecasters that were claiming the Hispanola brush... that doesn't look to plausible. Although anything can and will happen...

[Toadstool]

Track has shifted north!!. Chris will be over/near Key West Monday morning. Of course this will change again as time goes on..

I just hope it stays south of Florida.
BTW, is it too much to ask to put Lake Okeechobee on the map? I keep looking at the map of florida and thinking it looks wrong.

[dwsqos2]

321
SXXX50 KNHC 020847
AF308 0203A CHRIS HDOB 24 KNHC
0835. 1904N 06253W 01525 0049 065 050 170 170 052 01615 0000000000
0836 1905N 06254W 01524 0053 067 048 168 166 049 01618 0000000000
0836. 1906N 06255W 01522 0057 067 048 166 166 049 01620 0000000000
0837 1908N 06257W 01525 0060 067 046 170 168 047 01626 0000000000
0837. 1909N 06258W 01523 0063 065 046 166 166 048 01628 0000000000
0838 1910N 06259W 01525 0067 067 043 166 166 044 01632 0000000000
0838. 1911N 06301W 01525 0068 067 042 170 166 042 01634 0000000000
0839 1913N 06302W 01525 0071 067 043 164 164 043 01637 0000000000
0839. 1914N 06303W 01522 0072 068 043 162 158 044 01635 0000000000
0840 1915N 06304W 01525 0074 069 042 170 148 043 01640 0000000000
0840. 1916N 06306W 01536 0076 070 043 172 150 043 01652 0000000000
0841 1918N 06307W 01551 0078 071 044 176 144 044 01670 0000000000
0841. 1919N 06308W 01572 0080 074 040 178 146 044 01693 0000000000
0842 1920N 06310W 01562 0080 074 041 170 160 043 01683 0000000000
0842. 1922N 06311W 01535 0079 074 041 168 164 042 01655 0000000000
0843 1923N 06312W 01541 0081 074 038 164 156 039 01663 0000000000
0843. 1924N 06314W 01540 0081 075 038 162 160 038 01662 0000000000
0844 1925N 06315W 01540 0083 075 037 168 152 038 01663 0000000000
0844. 1927N 06316W 01539 0084 074 037 166 144 038 01664 0000000000
0845 1928N 06318W 01542 0084 075 037 172 142 039 01666 0000000000

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

Uhoh.

Okay.. so what are some inhibiting factors in the Gulf? Are there any?

[dwsqos2]

340
UZNT13 KNHC 020855
XXAA 52098 99195 70633 04393 99014 28032 ///// 00125 26833 06033
92810 21419 07536 85541 19236 08038 88999 77999
31313 09608 80845
61616 AF308 0203A CHRIS OB 23
62626 SPL 1949N06337W 0848 LST WND 012 MBL WND 06533 AEV 20604 DL
M WND 07036 013852 WL150 06030 087 =
XXBB 52098 99195 70633 04393 00014 28032 11898 19611 22850 19236
33840 17440
21212 00014 ///// 11013 06027 22996 06035 33852 08038 44840 07538
31313 09608 80845
61616 AF308 0203A CHRIS OB 23
62626 SPL 1949N06337W 0848 LST WND 012 MBL WND 06533 AEV 20604 DL
M WND 07036 013852 WL150 06030 087 =

[clfenwi]

Storm Name: CHRIS (03L)
Mission Number: 02
Flight ID: AF308
Observation Number: 22
Time: 0845Z
Latitude: 19.5°N
Longitude: 63.3°W
Turbulence: None
Flight condition: Clear
Pressure Altitude: 5100 feet
Flight level wind: E (80°) @ 43 mph
Temperature: 63°F
Dewpoint: 59°F
Weather: Rainshowers
850mb height: 5000 feet
Surface Wind: N/A
Remarks: None

Northwest corner of the storm

[mobilebay]

097
WTNT43 KNHC 020858
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
500 AM EDT WED AUG 02 2006

AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON POSITION AND WIND DATA THIS MORNING...ALONG
WITH NOAA DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM SAN JUAN AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...
INDICATE CHRIS HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS. AN UPPER-LEVEL EYE FEATURE HAS BECOME APPARENT IN RADAR
IMAGERY...ALTHOUGH IT IS TILTED ABOUT 12 NMI TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. WHILE THE STRUCTURE OF CHRIS HAS IMRPOVED...
THIS HAS NOT TRANSLATED INTO AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY...YET. A PASS
THROUGH THE CENTER OF CHRIS AROUND 0745Z REVEALED AN ESTIMATED
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1001 MB AND AN 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 62
KT. WHILE THE PRESSURE IS DOWN 2 MB FORM EARLIER FLIGHTS...THE
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS STILL YIELD ONLY A 50-KT SURFACE WIND.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED IN ALL QUADRANTS...AND THE OVERALL
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AS BECOME MORE SYMMETRICAL.

THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/09 KT...ALTHOUGH THE SHORT TERM MOTION
FROM THE LAST SEVERAL RECON FIXES YIELDS A MOTION OF 310/11.
OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF CHRIS IS FORECAST BY
THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND INTO THE U.S. CENTRAL PLAINS...AND IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN ROUGHLY THAT POSITION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES NOW IN HOW THE MODELS
HANDLE THE STRENGTH OF CHRIS. UNLIKE PREVIOUS RUNS OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...ESPECIALLY NOGAPS...NOW HANG
ONTO CHRIS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...ALBEIT A SMALL COMPACT ONE. THE
GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE...NOGAPS...AND UKMET MODELS HAVE MADE A
SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD SHIFT AND ARE NOW ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE ALSO
SHIFTED NORTHWARD AND NO LONGER TAKE CHRIS ACROSS THE GREATER
ANTILLES. THE LONE OUTLIER MODEL APPEARS TO BE THE GFDL...WHICH
ALMOST IMMEDIATELY TAKES CHRIS DUE WEST ACROSS THE NORTH COAST OF
PUERTO RICO AND INTO HISPANIOLA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A
LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND MUCH FARTHER NORTH THAN
THE MODEL CONSENSUS DUE TO THE GFDL MODEL BEING A LARGE OUTLIER. IT
SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE...UKMET...AND
NOGAPS CONSENSUS FORECAST PLACES CHRIS VERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF FLORIDA IN 120 HOURS...AND SUBSEQUENT FORECAST TRACKS MAY HAVE
TO SHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH IF THOSE MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. THE GFS-BASED SHIPS
INTENSITY MODEL INDICATES THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
TO LESS THAN 5-10 KT BY 96 AND 120 HOURS...YET SHOWS LITTLE
INTENSIFICATION AND BARELY MAKES CHRIS A HURRICANE...EVEN THOUGH
THE CYCLONE WILL BE OVER 29.5C TO 30C SSTS AND BETWEEN TWO
UPPER-LEVEL LOWS THAT WILL ENHANCE THE OUTFLOW TO THE WEST AND
EAST. GIVEN THAT CHRIS IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE...WHICH MEANS IT
CAN SPIN UP QUICKLY BUT ALSO SPIN DOWN JUST AS QUICKLY...THE
INTENSITY FORECAST WILL REMAIN ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE AT THIS
TIME IN HE LONGER TIME PERIODS...BUT STILL ABOVE THE SHIPS MODEL.

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRONG RAIN BAND
DEVELOPING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF CHRIS AND MOVING OVER THOSE AREAS
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0900Z 18.8N 62.6W 50 KT
12HR VT 02/1800Z 19.4N 64.0W 55 KT
24HR VT 03/0600Z 20.0N 65.8W 60 KT
36HR VT 03/1800Z 20.6N 67.6W 65 KT
48HR VT 04/0600Z 21.2N 69.5W 65 KT
72HR VT 05/0600Z 22.2N 73.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 06/0600Z 23.3N 77.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 07/0600Z 24.5N 82.5W 70 KT

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Coredesat]

Dry air, mainly. But there's no way to tell if that dry air will still be there by the end of the forecast period. It's still too early to tell where Chris will go, since the models and the NHC have been jumping up and down lately.

[dwsqos2]

955
SXXX50 KNHC 020857
AF308 0203A CHRIS HDOB 25 KNHC
0845. 1929N 06319W 01539 0086 078 038 176 142 039 01665 0000000000
0846 1930N 06321W 01546 0091 078 038 174 142 038 01678 0000000000
0846. 1929N 06322W 01539 0089 076 035 172 146 038 01669 0000000000
0847 1927N 06321W 01536 0085 073 034 170 146 035 01661 0000000000
0847. 1926N 06321W 01540 0084 069 035 168 148 036 01666 0000000000
0848 1924N 06321W 01539 0084 070 034 168 154 034 01664 0000000000
0848. 1922N 06321W 01541 0083 074 033 166 150 033 01664 0000000000
0849 1920N 06321W 01539 0083 074 032 168 152 032 01662 0000000000
0849. 1919N 06321W 01539 0082 073 031 162 162 033 01662 0000000000
0850 1917N 06321W 01542 0081 063 036 166 154 036 01664 0000000000
0850. 1915N 06321W 01540 0081 060 036 160 160 036 01662 0000000000
0851 1913N 06321W 01539 0080 059 035 158 158 036 01661 0000000000
0851. 1912N 06321W 01540 0080 054 035 158 158 035 01661 0000000000
0852 1910N 06321W 01538 0079 055 035 162 162 036 01658 0000000000
0852. 1908N 06321W 01541 0078 054 034 164 154 035 01660 0000000000
0853 1906N 06321W 01540 0078 051 032 170 150 034 01659 0000000000
0853. 1904N 06320W 01539 0077 052 032 168 154 033 01657 0000000000
0854 1903N 06320W 01540 0077 045 030 164 156 031 01658 0000000000
0854. 1901N 06320W 01540 0076 043 029 160 156 029 01656 0000000000
0855 1859N 06320W 01541 0075 040 030 162 150 031 01657 0000000000

[Cookiely]

I hope the models get a grip on this thing.

What can happen if they don't?

In the dark ages, meterologists didn't have all the gizmos and still did a decent job at forecasting. The NHC can handle this. I have no doubt.