Where will Chris go?

[TexasStooge]

HouTX that was my thought exactly.

I'm thinking the Texas Coast as well.

Hopefully, some of that rain can reach the Dallas/Ft. Worth area.

[HurricaneJim]

Well, I'm not booking any flights or load the Jeep until it's either crashed into Cuba or slides through the slot. (although a chase into Cuba would be really cool. But that's one of those things where if the track is off, you're stuck there...)


Jim
http://www.myspace.com/hurricanejim
http://www.myspace.com/stormchasetroopers

[Extremeweatherguy]

A storm like Chris is the worst kind for the TX coast. Instead of popping up in the Gulf and making landfall as a sheared TS, these kind of storms (just like Rita) have too much time, too much warm water, and too much of a chance to strengthen. I do not like the look of this one bit. This storm has the potential to be a monster.

BTW: JB said that it is possible Chris could be a Cat. 3 by the time it is parallel with FL!

[canegrl04]

If it has to go into the GOM,which the models show,lets keep our fingers crossed he doesn't bear down on LA .

BTW,oil prices are soaring in anticipation of a GOM hurricane

[cheezyWXguy]

A storm like Chris is the worst kind for the TX coast. Instead of popping up in the Gulf and making landfall as a sheared TS, these kind of storms (just like Rita) have too much time, too much warm water, and too much of a chance to strengthen. I do not like the look of this one bit. This storm has the potential to be a monster.

BTW: JB said that it is possible Chris could be a Cat. 3 by the time it is parallel with FL!

Its possible, but not very likely...ill go with 100mph tops

[hurricanesurvivor]

Ugghhh... I just woke up and had the most awful dream... was drenched in sweat too. Dreamed Chris came right up through the Gulf and was headed our way as a Cat 5. Here's hoping that's one dream that doesn't come true!!

[sprink52]

I hope not but...looks very much like Key Largo to Jupiter Inlet moving across Lake Okeechobee entering the GOM at Sarasota and moving in the general direction of the NW GOM. That is if the prevailing high moves as it appears to be. Again...I don't know..nor does any one else but I hope I'm wrong. We're still recovering economically from Wilma!!

[Eyewall]

i highly doubt that
but i think that moving through the keys, then turning north around Pensacola would be a good bet

[cajungal]

It is waaaaaaaaaay too early. If he enters the Gulf, which seems likely to me, then we will have a better idea. But, any storm that goes south of Miami or through the Keys, gets me nervous. Because those are the storms that Louisiana has to look out for. Examples: Betsy, Andrew, Katrina and Rita. All those storms made landfall in South Florida and came to affect Louisiana next. Rita made landfall on the TX/LA line as we all know. But, still swamped Terrebonne Parish nearly 200 miles away with up to 8 ft of flood water. I would just keep an eye on Chris and it is never too early to make plans just in case.

[Tireman4]

I would just keep an eye on Chris and it is never too early to make plans just in case.

I agree. It requires watching.

[Dustin]

It is waaaaaaaaaay too early. If he enters the Gulf, which seems likely to me, then we will have a better idea. But, any storm that goes south of Miami or through the Keys, gets me nervous. Because those are the storms that Louisiana has to look out for. Examples: Betsy, Andrew, Katrina and Rita. All those storms made landfall in South Florida and came to affect Louisiana next. Rita made landfall on the TX/LA line as we all know. But, still swamped Terrebonne Parish nearly 200 miles away with up to 8 ft of flood water. I would just keep an eye on Chris and it is never too early to make plans just in case.

I agree 100%. He still has a long way to go before me makes it to south florida though.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I'll say Florida landfall between Miami, and the Cape; around Palm Beach/West Palm Beach area. Then who knows, though if I had to guess right now, I'd say the Texas Coast as well.

[tropicsgal05]

I will wait until it enters the gulf to guess, i remember Hurricane Katrina was suppose to come into Destin area and ended up going to Louisiana. That was a big difference in the track.

[Extremeweatherguy]

From Jeff Master's morning post:

Path of Chris

The recent record heat wave over the Eastern U.S. means that the Bermuda High is extending further west than usual, creating a blocking ridge of high pressure that will prevent Chris from recurving to the north in the next five days. The GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, Canadian, and European models all agree on a west-northwest track taking Chris north of the Dominican Republic and Cuba, into the Bahama Islands, then into Florida or just south of Florida by Sunday. The lone outlier model is the usually reliable GFDL, which takes Chris into the Dominican Republic. For now, NHC is discounting the GFDL. I would not cancel any travel plans for Puerto Rico or the Dominican Republic this week, but those of you planning on visiting the Bahamas may want to rethink those plans.

It now appears likely that Chris will enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and be a threat to the Gulf Coast. There is a trough of low pressure that will be moving across the Eastern U.S. on Monday that may turn Chris more to the north; high pressure is then forecast to build in on Tuesday and force Chris back to the west-northwest. Given this forecast, there is no region of the Gulf Coast that can assume Chris will miss them.

link to his whole discussion: http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/ ... amp=200608

[Extremeweatherguy]

Also, here is an interesting part of Jeff Master's discussion. It talks about the "curse of Chris":

The "curse" of Chris

This is not the first time a tropical storm named Chris has come. There were storms named Chris in 1982, 1988, 1994, and 2000. Each time, Chris has been an insignificant storm that either never made it to hurricane strength, or in one case, barely made it to hurricane strength but stayed out to sea and never had a nice photogenic appearance. However, the 2000 incarnation of Chris did set a record--shortest amount of time as a tropical storm. Chris in 2000 lasted just one advisory before wind shear tore it apart. I've happily needled my friend Dr. Chris Landsea, Science and Operations Officer at the National Hurricane Center, every six years about this "curse" of Chris. He's always pretty cheerful about it, saying it was a good curse to have. Well, I'm hoping that the "curse" of storms named Chris continues this year, and I can happily tell Chris he'll have to wait until 2012 to get that nice-looking eye that a storm named Chris has never had!

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

From Jeff Master's morning post:

Path of Chris

The recent record heat wave over the Eastern U.S. means that the Bermuda High is extending further west than usual, creating a blocking ridge of high pressure that will prevent Chris from recurving to the north in the next five days. The GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, Canadian, and European models all agree on a west-northwest track taking Chris north of the Dominican Republic and Cuba, into the Bahama Islands, then into Florida or just south of Florida by Sunday. The lone outlier model is the usually reliable GFDL, which takes Chris into the Dominican Republic. For now, NHC is discounting the GFDL. I would not cancel any travel plans for Puerto Rico or the Dominican Republic this week, but those of you planning on visiting the Bahamas may want to rethink those plans.

It now appears likely that Chris will enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and be a threat to the Gulf Coast. There is a trough of low pressure that will be moving across the Eastern U.S. on Monday that may turn Chris more to the north; high pressure is then forecast to build in on Tuesday and force Chris back to the west-northwest. Given this forecast, there is no region of the Gulf Coast that can assume Chris will miss them.

link to his whole discussion: http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/ ... amp=200608

[wxman22]

This track is VERY simular to Rita. When Rita formed they had the track going towards Brownsville. And then the track shifted to Corpus and then it shifted to Matagorda Bay (The Middle Texas Coast) and eventully the Upper Tx Coast......

[KatDaddy]

OK EWG what is Joe B saying this morning???????

[Extremeweatherguy]

OK EWG what is Joe B saying this morning???????

He hasn't said much, except he thinks it could be a Cat. 3 when it enters the GOM.

[Rainband]

there is no region of the Gulf Coast that can assume Chris will miss them.

I disagree. The central Florida west coast is safe. This would have to take a hard right hand turn to hit us. The only thing that is possible is if it were to cross the state and come out in the GOM. The way the models have been behaving with the weakness, This is possible. Not likely though.