Where will Chris go?

[Extremeweatherguy]

I'll throw my 2 cents in. After looking at all the new model data (upper air and all) i say the middle to lower Texas coast.

That is where I am throwing my VERY PREMATURE two cents in right now as well.

All of the globals are keeping the ridge in place to the north through next week. There's no trof timing issues to deal with. I think it ridge the ridge westward....like Gilbert.

Things can change...but that is my gut call.

so a Gilbert track about 4 degrees further north would mean the most likely area right now is between Houston and Corpus (or basically the middle TX coast)?

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

[KFDM Meteorologist]

You have to look at how the upper air pattern changes in August. When you have an upper high in the southern Plains it will be much slower to move out than in late September.

[dwg71]

If they followed identical paths then yes, but that wont happen. Storm tracks of that length are like snow flakes - no two are alike.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

What the 500 pattern is showing by next Tuesday night and Wednesday is the high building west acrss the deep south. If this vereifies (hope it does) south Texas would be under the gun.

[HouTXmetro]

What the 500 pattern is showing by next Tuesday night and Wednesday is the high building west acrss the deep south. If this vereifies (hope it does) south Texas would be under the gun.

Well that means the entire TX coast may be in for some rough weather depending on how big Chris is.

[Air Force Met]

I'll throw my 2 cents in. After looking at all the new model data (upper air and all) i say the middle to lower Texas coast.

That is where I am throwing my VERY PREMATURE two cents in right now as well.

All of the globals are keeping the ridge in place to the north through next week. There's no trof timing issues to deal with. I think it ridge the ridge westward....like Gilbert.

Things can change...but that is my gut call.

Good post. Someone keeps going back to Rita, well Rita was late September and upper patterns move more quickly in late September.

That ridge is stout. Rita was moving in Sept towards a trough.

Everyone keeps forgetting to stop looking at the little picture and look at the BIG picture. Loko at the BIG picture...the synoptic scale pattern is a SE ridge.

So...the QUESTION is...what will change that? What's going to changing the synoptic pattern.

That is the question.

[Extremeweatherguy]

What the 500 pattern is showing by next Tuesday night and Wednesday is the high building west acrss the deep south. If this vereifies (hope it does) south Texas would be under the gun.

Well that means the entire TX coast may be in for some rough weather depending on how big Chris is.

This also depends on if these predictions for 6-7 days out don't change (which there is a high chance they will).

[Air Force Met]

If they followed identical paths then yes, but that wont happen. Storm tracks of that length are like snow flakes - no two are alike.

What I am pointing out is the synoptic pattern is the same. That's what storms do when the pattern is setup like that...they stairstep the ridge.

You see something different? what is the synptic setup you see...and what will change it.

Point it out and back it up...instead of just being disagreeable.

[aOl]

So I guess there is no chance it will turn north at all? Just a straight track?

[HouTXmetro]

So I guess there is no chance it will turn north at all? Just a straight track?

always a chance, but not a big chance.

[Air Force Met]

So I guess there is no chance it will turn north at all? Just a straight track?

It all depends on the ridge.

If the ridge is stronger...it will bend to the west once it enters the GOM. If it is weaker...it will stairstep and continue WNW.

It's too far out right now to say that. The only thing we have right now is all the Globals agree a ridge will be located over the S-SE US with no major trof break to yank it up.

[dixiebreeze]

TAFB has "Hurricane Chris" way north of the islands and on a beeline to Florida in 72 hours:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif

[DESTRUCTION5]

TAFB has "Hurricane Chris" way north of the islands and on a beeline to Florida in 72 hours:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif

Looks like where it should be?

[dwg71]

If they followed identical paths then yes, but that wont happen. Storm tracks of that length are like snow flakes - no two are alike.

What I am pointing out is the synoptic pattern is the same. That's what storms do when the pattern is setup like that...they stairstep the ridge.

You see something different? what is the synptic setup you see...and what will change it.

Point it out and back it up...instead of just being disagreeable.

No, I agree with you, my point was to other poster that said it would be 4 degrees north and be in Houston Area since Gilbert was 4 degrees south of Chris at this point. I agree with synoptic set up and think your on point. I was not being disagreeable. I guess brain did not reach fingertips. Sorry.

[Trader Ron]

TAFB has "Hurricane Chris" way north of the islands and on a beeline to Florida in 72 hours:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif

Looks like Chris will pass between Cuba and Florida to me. Maybe a smidge North.

[HouTXmetro]

So I guess there is no chance it will turn north at all? Just a straight track?

It all depends on the ridge.

If the ridge is stronger...it will bend to the west once it enters the GOM. If it is weaker...it will stairstep and continue WNW.

It's too far out right now to say that. The only thing we have right now is all the Globals agree a ridge will be located over the S-SE US with no major trof break to yank it up.

Ok I'm concerned. Iv'e been hearing about a weakness come Monday that could allow Chris to gain some lattitude before being pushed back West. IF this scenario plays out and a pronounced West turn doesn't occur until the GOM, then all bets are off from Corpus Christi, TX to Morgan City LA.

[dixiebreeze]

TAFB has "Hurricane Chris" way north of the islands and on a beeline to Florida in 72 hours:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif

Looks like Chris will pass between Cuba and Florida to me. Maybe a smidge North.

Hey Trader! I'd bet on a definite "smidge."

[Air Force Met]

No, I agree with you, my point was to other poster that said it would be 4 degrees north and be in Houston Area since Gilbert was 4 degrees south of Chris at this point. I agree with synoptic set up and think your on point. I was not being disagreeable. I guess brain did not reach fingertips. Sorry.

N/P

I agree with that...no track is alike. If the ridge on the Euro verifies...this goes towards Corpus. If GFS verifies...its a mid-Texas. If the CMC verifies...its BRO. They could all be wrong and it would be GLS.

Gilbert surfed a ridge wave. Chris will get a ridge handoff. That will alter the bee-line track some. Nobody knows how the ridge pattern will truly set up in 6-7 days. All we do know is the globals agree one will be there...whether it is over LA or GA...and that makes a BIG diff whether this goes into LA or TX...

which right now...IF I was a betting man...I would lay the money down on those two states. Somewhere west of Lake Charles and north of Corpus. I know that is a lot of real estate...but with the pattern seen in the models...well you gotta make a forecast based on something...

and I don't have a time machine.

[Brent]

TAFB has "Hurricane Chris" way north of the islands and on a beeline to Florida in 72 hours:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif

Looks good, but I'll be very surprised if it's "only" 65 kt in that position.

[dwg71]

All you need is a "flux capacitor" I'm not ready to even narrow it down to Corpus to Lake Charles. I'm still at Mexico to East coast of FL...