Tropical Storm Chris

[AJC3]

for the 100th time

that recon report seems valid

Satellite also has not improved. I am not sure what has caused this, but Chris has rapidly weakened is seems, NW quad winds are barely at TS force

Based on WV imagery, there appears to be yet another ULL trying to form near 24N 60W. I think that may be responsible for the recent increase in NW shear.

[cheezyWXguy]

30kt!?! no way...i do not buy that

[CronkPSU]

lightning on the east side of the center?

vortex says pressure has come up to 1006

[westmoon]

Would be nice now the I'm just stumped as i see no reason for chris to weaken so fast

[clfenwi]

dropsonde 1006 millibars, 21 knot surface wind

UZNT13 KNHC 021814
XXAA 52188 99196 70639 04393 99006 26403 30021 00055 26001 30022
92742 22400 31019 85479 22456 00507 88999 77999
31313 09608 81752
61616 AF308 0303A CHRIS OB 04
62626 EYE SPL 1960N06394W 1754 MBL WND 30021 AEV 20604 DLM WND 31
018 006875 WL150 30021 075 =
XXBB 52188 99196 70639 04393 00006 26403 11888 21004 22870 22850
33850 22456 44843 21256
21212 00006 30021 11914 30518 22875 35515 33843 02004
31313 09608 81752
61616 AF308 0303A CHRIS OB 04
62626 EYE SPL 1960N06394W 1754 MBL WND 30021 AEV 20604 DLM WND 31
018 006875 WL150 30021 075 =

[cheezyWXguy]

Which column is the Winds.

its D

[miamicanes177]

for the 100th time

that recon report seems valid

Satellite also has not improved. I am not sure what has caused this, but Chris has rapidly weakened is seems, NW quad winds are barely at TS force

rapidly weakened? The NHC kept the winds at 65mph and raw T# is 3.4. I'm not sure how that is rapid weakening. The sat presentation is the best it has been all day.

[KWT]

I don't think ther eis nothing wrong with recon either, remember that these smaller systems also tend to have higher pressures anyway, esp when you've got a strong ridge t othe north which is no doubt helping to make a stronger gradiant then normal, so while pressure is at 1007mbs I'd stil lthink that would support 55mph in this sort of set-up.

[jpigott]

lightning reported in east side of storm, isn't that indicative of strengthening??

[superfly]

Maybe it sees the mountains of Hispaniola in its path and has decided to surrender.

[MiamiensisWx]

This confirms a definate dry air intrusion.

[brunota2003]

LIGHTNING OBSERVED ON EAST SIDE OF STORM
That is awesome...doesnt that usually only occur either when there is rapid intensification, OR rapid weakening, which seems to be the case this time?

[Derek Ortt]

It's indicative of intensity change in either direction

[x-y-no]

Well I'll be a monkey's uncle ...

1752. 1935N 06356W 01524 0037 248 009 208 156 009 01601 0000000000
1753 1936N 06357W 01524 0036 297 003 214 152 007 01601 0000000000
1753. 1937N 06357W 01525 0036 031 006 218 146 008 01601 0000000000
1754 1939N 06358W 01526 0034 060 008 226 140 011 01601 0000000000


and

URNT12 KNHC 021815
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 02/17:52:30Z
B. 19 deg 35 min N
063 deg 56 min W
C. 850 mb 1490 m
D. 30 kt
E. 154 deg 037 nm
F. 199 deg 047 kt
G. 146 deg 052 nm
H. 1006 mb
I. 11 C/ 1514 m
J. 23 C/ 1533 m
K. 14 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.12 / 2 nm
P. AF308 0303A CHRIS OB 03
MAX FL WIND 47 KT SE QUAD 17:35:40 Z
LIGHTNING OBSERVED ON EAST SIDE OF STORM
;

Shows what I know ...

[cheezyWXguy]

its not weakening...with a pressure rise like that and the same winds, its probably cuz its getting ready to strengthen and is probably expanding right now...i think by the time recon decides to exit it gains hurricane status

No offense but I will go with what derek said

whatd derek say?

[sweetpea]

What is the significance of the lightning? Thanks for responses
Debbie

[NONAME]

What I meant is what column is it in on these observation not the vortex message I knew that one thanks anyways.
SXXX50 KNHC 021756
AF308 0303A CHRIS HDOB 09 KNHC
1744. 1911N 06346W 01527 0071 240 034 162 162 035 01639 0000000000
1745 1912N 06347W 01521 0070 245 034 154 154 036 01632 0000000000
1745. 1913N 06348W 01524 0068 248 035 160 160 035 01633 0000000000
1746 1915N 06349W 01526 0067 248 035 160 160 035 01634 0000000000
1746. 1916N 06350W 01523 0068 255 035 156 156 035 01631 0000000000
1747 1917N 06350W 01525 0065 260 035 158 158 036 01631 0000000000
1747. 1919N 06351W 01523 0062 260 034 164 164 035 01626 0000000000
1748 1921N 06351W 01524 0061 260 031 162 162 032 01626 0000000000
1748. 1922N 06352W 01523 0061 266 029 160 160 030 01625 0000000000
1749 1924N 06352W 01522 0058 269 027 162 162 028 01620 0000000000
1749. 1925N 06352W 01528 0049 252 024 180 174 026 01617 0000000000
1750 1927N 06352W 01525 0045 244 023 186 176 024 01611 0000000000
1750. 1929N 06353W 01522 0044 257 021 176 176 022 01607 0000000000
1751 1930N 06354W 01524 0041 255 018 176 176 019 01606 0000000000
1751. 1932N 06354W 01524 0038 245 012 184 176 013 01602 0000000000
1752 1933N 06355W 01524 0038 236 010 196 164 011 01603 0000000000
1752. 1935N 06356W 01524 0037 248 009 208 156 009 01601 0000000000
1753 1936N 06357W 01524 0036 297 003 214 152 007 01601 0000000000
1753. 1937N 06357W 01525 0036 031 006 218 146 008 01601 0000000000
1754 1939N 06358W 01526 0034 060 008 226 140 011 01601 0000000000

[Trugunzn]

WOW, a huge red flareup of convection just blewup

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-avn.html

[StormsAhead]

30kt!?! no way...i do not buy that

That's not the wind speed. That's a visual estimate, which is frequently lower because the ocean surface may be blocked from the view of the meteorologist.

[WindRunner]

Is anyone else worrying about the 12C temp gradient around the eye?

And the pressure is probably about 1004mb due to the wind.