Tropical Storm Chris

[dwg71]

It's indicative of intensity change in either direction

I would say weakening now, but I dont think it would last. Though I wish...

[skufful]

WOW, a huge red flareup of convection just blewup

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-avn.html

Probably mad that plane just flew through.

[WindRunner]

[Evil Jeremy]

so chris is weakining?

[MiamiensisWx]

What is the significance of the lightning? Thanks for responses
Debbie

The lightning observed and lowering of flight-level winds in some quadrants (although convection may appear to support higher winds at first glance) can be an indication of dry air (SAL/Saharan Air Layer) intrusion occurring now, possibly weakening Chris slightly, as Derek mentioned. This may be causing the center to be somewhat exposed as well.

[tgenius]

Is anyone else worrying about the 12C temp gradient around the eye?

And the pressure is probably about 1004mb due to the wind.

what does the 12C temp indicate? I thought it didn't have an eye yet?

[Derek Ortt]

satellite estimates should be disregarded when there is recon.

working in favor of the storm is the very warm core, and once it clears the new UL, that UL may create an outflow channel.

I still expected a hurricane out of this within the next 24-36 hours, it may just be weaker now

[Rainband]

Maybe we owe the models an apology. Seriously though. It would be good news if this trend continues for all involved.

[mascpa]

Let the wobble wars begin. Is it W, WNW, NNW, N, ???
Sit back, relax and watch the trends. Chris is still just a baby, nobody can tell with certainty where he will decide to go. It never ceases to amaze me how folks just can not help themselves in stating, I think it will go there, or wherever. All will become clear in time. Just pay attention and be ready ...

[Grease Monkey]

Once it reaches all that moist air where the ULL is at to it's west, it will probably blow pretty quickly.

[Wthrman13]

It's clearly been undergoing some northerly/northwesterly shear, so it doesn't surprise me at all that the recon is reporting a weaker system. There is vigorous convection going on in the eastern semicircle, so lightning reports are not surprising either.

The overall organization of the system is still pretty good, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the LLC pop out from under the convection at some point due to the shear.

[sweetpea]

Is anyone else worrying about the 12C temp gradient around the eye?

And the pressure is probably about 1004mb due to the wind.

Sorry I am still learning. What would it mean about the temperature around the eye?
Debbie

[Blown Away]

These models are driving me friggen crazy!
Question:
The NHC 11am discussion said the "GFDL IS A
HIGHLY CREDIBLE MODEL". If they give that model high credit, which takes Chris through DR/Hispanolia why are there no watches for that area, there are watches for SE Bahamas??

[WindRunner]

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 021816
AF308 0303A CHRIS HDOB 11 KNHC
1804. 2003N 06424W 01523 0079 049 033 184 134 033 01643 0000000000
1805 2004N 06426W 01526 0080 048 031 184 132 032 01646 0000000000
1805. 2005N 06427W 01524 0081 046 029 184 132 029 01646 0000000000
1806 2006N 06428W 01524 0082 049 029 180 134 030 01647 0000000000
1806. 2008N 06429W 01523 0083 051 029 180 136 030 01647 0000000000
1807 2009N 06431W 01524 0084 055 032 180 136 032 01649 0000000000
1807. 2010N 06432W 01522 0086 061 033 172 150 034 01649 0000000000
1808 2011N 06433W 01525 0087 063 034 170 150 034 01653 0000000000
1808. 2012N 06434W 01525 0088 066 035 170 148 036 01653 0000000000
1809 2014N 06436W 01524 0089 068 035 166 152 035 01653 0000000000
1809. 2015N 06437W 01523 0090 070 034 162 156 035 01654 0000000000
1810 2016N 06438W 01525 0091 071 033 156 156 033 01657 0000000000
1810. 2017N 06440W 01524 0093 073 033 152 152 033 01658 0000000000
1811 2019N 06441W 01523 0093 072 034 154 154 035 01657 0000000000
1811. 2020N 06442W 01526 0094 070 034 164 138 034 01661 0000000000
1812 2021N 06444W 01521 0094 076 035 152 152 035 01657 0000000000
1812. 2022N 06445W 01525 0095 072 034 160 138 036 01661 0000000000
1813 2023N 06446W 01523 0096 072 032 154 150 033 01660 0000000000
1813. 2025N 06448W 01524 0095 073 032 130 130 032 01659 0000000000
1814 2026N 06449W 01528 0096 075 031 148 148 035 01665 0000000000
;

[Trugunzn]

WOW, a huge red flareup of convection just blewup

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-avn.html

what do u think chris is up to??

[miamicanes177]

so chris is weakining?

this storm is not weakening. Recon is just flying into the storm and there will be more data to prove this has not weakened. They will likely find winds to support 70-75mph.

[Swimdude]

This all just seems too peculiar... But than again, what do I know.

[TexasF6]

Chris looks to be trying to wrap-around convection to protect himself from this dry air...

[Grease Monkey]

so chris is weakining?

this storm is not weakening. Recon is just flying into the storm and there will be more data to prove this has not weakened. They will likely find winds to support 70-75mph.

why do you say that?